The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
With the All-Star Break just days away, Major League Baseball has a full Saturday of action this week. Five games are scheduled under the lights on the main DFS slate, which begins at 7:15 p.m. ET with a pair of matchups for national network coverage. The Braves visit the Padres in a matchup of two teams contending for an NL Wild Card while the Giants and Twins meet in an interleague series by the Bay. Two divisional matchups are on the slate a little later, as the Cubs take on the Cardinals in the second game of their Saturday doubleheader, and the Angels host the Mariners. The DBacks host the Blue Jays to close out the busy day of baseball. With those 10 teams in Saturday night’s player pool, there are some strong plays to consider, so let’s jump right in to see what our models indicate.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($10,200) San Diego Padres (-110) vs. Atlanta Braves
Cease was the Padres’ big pitching pickup this past offseason and is the top stud play on Saturday night. He takes the top spot in the ceiling, median, and floor projections on THE BAT X and ranks second in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the highest strikeout prediction by a wide margin and the second-lowest opponent implied runs.
In 19 starts, Cease has a 7-8 record with a 4.21 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and an impressive 11.4 K/9, which ranks fourth in the MLB. He always brings a high ceiling since he can pile up punchouts. In three of his last four outings, he has at least eight strikeouts and had double-digit strikeouts for the second time this season in his recent home start against the Brewers.
Cease has enjoyed his first season pitching with Petco Park as his home stadium, posting a 3.69 home ERA and 3.09 home FIP and racking up over 17 DraftKings points in each of his last six home starts. He gave up three runs in seven innings in his last start but still finished with 22.2 DraftKings points in the loss, and in his previous home start, he dominated the Nationals for 36 DraftKings points in one of his best games of the year.
On Saturday, Cease has a tough matchup against the Braves, but Atlanta’s offense has been depleted by injury. Over the last 30 days, the Braves rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories and have the sixth-highest K%. They’re not a must-avoid matchup at this point, especially given Cease’s high strikeout ceiling.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Gibson ($7,800) St. Louis Cardinals (-130) vs. Chicago Cubs
Gibson and the Cardinals are the second-heaviest favorites on Saturday’s slate as they face the Cubs in the second game of their doubleheader. Gibson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections, where he also has the best median, ceiling, and floor projections of all 10 probable starting pitchers.
Getting Gibson under $8,000 represents great value since the Cardinals’ veteran has over 15 DraftKings points in six of his last seven starts. He’s a solid 7-3 this season with a 3.96 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and 8.6 K/9, but he has been even better lately, with a 10.9 K/9 rate over his last seven starts while going 4-1. During that span, he faced these Cubs at Wrigley Field and shut them down for seven shutout innings. He had six strikeouts and a season-high 30 DraftKings points in that 3-0 Cardinals victory.
Gibson has won each of his last two outings with exactly eight strikeouts in exactly five innings. Even though he gave up seven runs in those two games, he got good run support and posted 19.7 and 18.7 DraftKings points, which are solid totals for a pitcher in this price range.
Over the last 30 days, the Cubs are in the top 10 in K% and the bottom 10 in runs scored. They have managed just 4.1 runs per game with a .308 team wOBA over that span. Gibson will look to continue their struggles and should be a reliable source of innings on Saturday night with a high ceiling if he comes close to matching his production from the last time he faced Chicago.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hayden Birdsong ($6,300) San Francisco Giants (-101) vs. Minnesota Twins
Birdsong has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X projections this Saturday and the second highest in the FantasyLabs projections behind only Gibson. The Giants prospect has shown promise in his first few MLB starts but is a high-risk bargain play in this start against the potent Twins offense. For GPPs, he’s worth the risk since he comes at such a low salary with such good upside.
At the start of the season, Birdsong was the No. 4 prospect in the Giants’ system and the No. 98 prospect in all of baseball, per MLB Pipeline. Among all minor league pitchers with at least 100 innings last season, Birdsong had the second best K/9 at 13.3. Before getting called up to the MLB, he had 75 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings in the minors this year. In the majors, he only has a 9.4 K/9 rate, but that could climb as he adjusts and learns at this level.
In his three MLB starts, he has gone 1-0 with a 4.40 ERA and 5.26 FIP. He has struggled a little bit with control, with seven walks in 14 1/3 innings, but has also picked up 15 strikeouts. He’ll need to go deeper into games to be an elite fantasy option, but his strikeout potential at this price makes him a good GPP option to consider.
The Twins offense has been rolling over the past month, but they have only managed five runs total in their last three games. Birdsong’s fellow rookie Kyle Harrison held them in check Friday, and he’ll look to do the same on Saturday. Birdsong also gets a boost since he’ll be at the picturesque and pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by both Projected Points and Ceiling using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The DBacks have several strong options in their lineup, as they face Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays. Berrios is 8-6 in his 19 starts this season, but most of his good starts have come at home. On the road, he has a 4.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while giving up a .360 wOBA. He has also surrendered 21 homers on the season and 11 in his last seven starts. During that span, he has a 5.53 ERA and 6.51 FIP, which makes him a nice matchup to attack Saturday.
Any stack of the Snakes should start at the top of their lineup with Corbin Carroll, who has the highest median projection of all the hitters on the slate, the second-highest ceiling projection, and the highest Projected Plus/Minus. Carroll struggled earlier this season but has averaged 9.9 DraftKings points per game over his last nine games, hitting .205 (8-for-39) but adding three doubles, a home run, 10 runs scored, and four stolen bases to produce plenty of fantasy goodness despite his low average.
Behind Carroll, Ketel Marte and Joc Peterson are strong plays, while Christian Walker has also been excellent lately, hitting .360 (18-for-50) with four doubles, five home runs, and a .490 wOBA over his last 13 games.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF George Springer ($3,900) Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks (Yilber Diaz)
Springer struggled badly early in the season, hitting just .188 with a .256 wOBA through his first 71 games of the season. He was dropped out of the lead off spot and looked like his best days were behind him, but he has had a huge resurgence lately and now represents good value under $4,000. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all OF on Saturday’s slate behind only Carroll.
In his last 17 games, Springer has hit a sizzling .386 (22-for-57) with five doubles, five homers, and a .515 wOBA. He has 12 runs scored and 19 RBI over that span with seven multi-hit performances. He had two hits and 13 DraftKings points on Friday night in the series opener and has posted over 12 DraftKings points in four of his last six contests.
Springer will match up with young righty Yilber Diaz on Saturday, which puts him on the strong side of his splits. He’s back at the top of the lineup with plenty of upside to make him a great bargain on Saturday.
2B Leo Jimenez ($2,000) Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks (Yilber Diaz)
Another strong value option from the Blue Jays lineup on Saturday is rookie Leo Jimenez. Jimenez has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 2B and is an exceptional way to save salary to spend in other spots. The 23-year-old was the Blue Jays’ No. 5 prospect coming into the season and made his MLB debut on July 4.
In his five games in Toronto, Jimenez went 6-for-17 (.353) with a double, two walks, three runs scored, and a .389 wOBA. In Triple-A before getting called up, Jimenez hit .271 with seven homers, three stolen bases, and a .391 wOBA in his 57 games.
Jimenez doesn’t have to do a ton to be a great value at the minimum salary, and he and Springer are two of the options that look great from the Blue Jays batting order using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Mickey Moniak ($2,600) Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners (George Kirby)
Moniak was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft but hasn’t been able to consistently produce at the MLB level. On Saturday’s slate, he has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders since he has been riding a hot streak and may finally be finding his footing enough to realize his potential.
Over his last 10 games, Moniak has averaged 7.9 DraftKings points by going 12-for-38 (.316) with two doubles, a triple, and a home run. He has multiple hits in each of his last three games and in four of his last five.
This season, Mariners SP George Kirby has been much more hittable by lefties like Moniak than by righties. Eight of his 11 homers allowed have come against left-handed hitters, who have a .300 wOBA against him this season, while he has held righties to a .248 wOBA.
