MLB

MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Saturday, August 31)

By Zach Thompson @ZT_Sports
Aug 29, 2024

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

It’s a stacked Saturday night of fantasy baseball with 20 teams in the player pool for DraftKings’ main slate, which begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. Coors Field is in the mix, as the Rockies host the Orioles, and half of the 10 games get some extra spice as divisional matchups between familiar foes. The Dodgers have pulled away a bit from the Diamondbacks and will look to continue to grow their lead in the NL West, as a key series continues in Phoenix. There is only one division in the MLB where the lead is more than five games, and both Leagues’ Wild Card races are also tight. It sets up to be a great September finish, but before the final month begins, this 10-game Saturday night will put a nice bow on August. Our projections pinpoint some interesting studs and values to consider, so let’s dive in.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Zack Wheeler ($10,100) Philadelphia Phillies (-150) vs. Atlanta Braves

Of the 20 probable starters, Wheeler has the highest median and ceiling projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. The Phillies’ Ace has the highest strikeout prediction on the board and matches the second most Pro Trends.

Wheeler has a sterling 2.74 ERA with a 3.35 FIP and 176 strikeouts in his 160 2/3 innings across 26 starts. He has allowed a total of just seven earned runs over his last five starts, with 37 strikeouts in 32 innings and a 1.97 ERA and 2.64 FIP. In those five starts, he has averaged 24.4 DraftKings points per outing.

He faced the Braves in Atlanta two starts ago and held them to two runs in six innings but took a tough-luck loss despite earning 21.9 fantasy points. He had six strikeouts in that game and has at least that many in nine straight outings coming into this Saturday night rematch.

The Braves are definitely not an ideal matchup, but Wheeler has been locked in enough to earn many top marks this Saturday. He also gets a boost from pitching at home, where he has held opponents to a .189 batting average this season.

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Mason Black ($5,500) San Francisco Giants (-135) vs. Miami Marlins

Black will be called up from Triple-A to make Saturday night’s start in San Francisco, and he is a great low-cost bargain play in a fabulous matchup facing the Fish. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all scheduled starters in THE BAT X projections and the second highest in the FantasyLabs projections. At only $5,500, he doesn’t have to dominate to be a good value, but he has the potential to bring great returns for minimal investment.

According to MLB Pipeline, Black is the No. 8 prospect in the Giants’ system, and he has looked good in Triple-A after struggling in an MLB cameo in May. In his four starts in August for the Sacramento River Cats, Black went 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings. He has had some control issues at times in both the minors and the MLB, but when he’s on his game, he brings good strikeout potential with his sinker/slider and a good fastball.

In his return to the majors, he gets a great matchup against the Marlins, who have been the lowest-scoring team in the National League this season. They have the second worst wOBA in the MLB at only .292. They only managed one run on Friday and have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games not played at Coors Field. The Marlins have the lowest implied run total on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard.

The matchup helps give Black a good ceiling at this bargain salary, and he could be the key to unlocking the funds to pay up for stars if he can continue his recent success.

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MLB DFS GPP Pick

Zebby Matthews ($7,400) Minnesota Twins (-155) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

If you’re looking for an option with low ownership but plenty of upside this Saturday, Matthews makes sense in this home start against the Jays. Matthews’ ownership projection is well under 5%, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his three MLB starts.

Matthews has 18.3 and 20.9 DraftKings points in those two strong starts, both of which came at home. He had five strikeouts in his MLB debut on August 13 but was even sharper with seven strikeouts in five innings against the Cardinals in his most recent outing last Sunday. Even though he earned a no-decision in that matchup, it was the best fantasy outing of his career.

The Twins have had to rely heavily on young starting pitchers due to injuries, and Matthews skyrocketed through the system with a 2.60 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 97 innings across three levels. Even more impressively, he issued only seven walks in all that work. In his three MLB starts, he has just two walks to go with 13 strikeouts and continues to show great control and strikeout potential.

The Blue Jays have had a disappointing season and have managed just two runs total over their last three games. Matthews will look to extend their recent slump and provide solid value as a mid-range play with low ownership in GPPs this Saturday.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points and Ceiling using the aggregate projections belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:

For the second day in a row, the Orioles take the top spot since they’re at Coors Field. They have the highest implied run total on the board by over a full run, as they take on Ryan Feltner and the Rockies. Feltner is 1-10 on the season and has a 5.96 ERA at home with a .360 wOBA against at Coors. He has been especially hittable by lefties, who have a .358 wOBA against him this year, so leaning in with left-handed hitters looks to be a strong play.

Even though they only scored five runs on Friday, they still have an extremely high ceiling Saturday. Adley Rutschman got Friday off but should be back in the lineup Saturday, and he brings the highest ceiling projection of all catchers. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson has the second highest ceiling projection of all hitters and should be in a good bounce back spot despite going 0-for-5 on Friday.

This stack is a very expensive option to build around, but Eloy Jimenez, Jackson Holliday, and Ramon Urias can be included to help make the rest of your roster fit under the salary cap. There are also some cheap plays highlighted below who can help fit in this high-priced stack at Coors.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

OF Garrett Mitchell ($3,000) Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (Freddy Peralta)

Mitchell had a huge doubleheader on Friday and is poised to be a good value at only $3,000. He has the third highest ceiling projection of all outfielders under $4,000 and will be on the strong side of the splits against Peralta.

On Friday, Mitchell went a combined 4-for-7 and hit for the cycle in the two wins combined. He had 33 DraftKings points in the nightcap alone, with a triple, a home run, and a stolen base. Over his last 10 games with an at-bat, the lefty has gone 13-for-36 (.361) with three stolen bases, three doubles, and a home run while posting a .459 wOBA.

Mitchell will be facing the Reds in a bullpen game, and he should be able to keep rolling and producing at this very affordable salary.

2B/3B Shay Whitcomb ($2,200) Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)

Since his arrival in Houston, I’ve been high on Whitcomb, and he has the best Projected Plus/Minus of any infielder on Saturday. He is expected to return to the lineup against lefty Cole Ragans ($9,900) after coming off the bench for the last few games.

Whitcomb tore up Triple-A this season for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, hitting .293 with 25 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a .392 wOBA. In his eight starts since joining the ‘Stros, he went 7-for-25 (.280) with three doubles, and he brings a very high ceiling for a player with a salary just over the minimum. He offers great value at either 2B or 3B on Saturday.

Here’s how the rest of the Houston lineup looks to stack up against Ragans in our PlateIQ tool:.

OF Corey Julks ($2,700) Chicago White Sox vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)

In the aggregate projections, Julks has the third highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the entire slate. Even though the White Sox offense has been dismal, Julks brings both power and speed potential and can be very productive if he continues to hit in the lead-off spot.

Julks was traded from the Astros to the White Sox in May but has only hit .236 on the season, with three homers and five stolen bases. He has picked things up in his last three games, going 5-for-13 (.385) with three RBIs.

Despite his low overall numbers, he has mashed lefties all year, hitting .313 with three doubles, a home run, and a .348 wOBA. Going against lefty Jose Quintana should set him up to be a good value option in the outfield Saturday.

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.