The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Whitlock ($8,600) Boston Red Sox (+101) at Los Angeles Angels
Whitlock has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections for Saturday night’s slate. The Red Sox took the first game of their three-game set against the Angels and will look to Whitlock for another strong start in the late game on Saturday’s eight-game slate.
Whitlock has the highest strikeout prediction of the starters on the slate and a favorable matchup against the Angels, who have hit just .216 with a .309 team wOBA this season. The Angels have a 24.8% K%, which ranks seventh in the majors and should set up Whitlock for good strikeout production.
In his first start of the season, Whitlock was sharp against the Mariners, allowing just three hits and one run in five innings while striking out eight. He looked locked in throughout Spring Training, going 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings.
Throughout his career, Whitlock has typically averaged just about a strikeout per inning, and he has shown a high ceiling as both a starter and reliever when healthy. He has been limited by injuries the last two seasons but looks healthy and ready to roll for the Red Sox as they continue their season-opening West Coast trip.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
D.L. Hall ($6,100) Milwaukee Brewers (-118) vs. Seattle Mariners
Hall has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on Saturday night’s slate in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. Hall will take the hill at home for the Brewers against Seattle after the Brewers won on a walk-off Friday night to open the series.
The Brewers acquired Hall in the trade that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, and Hall was solid in his Brewers’ debut last Saturday, allowing six hits and two runs in four innings against the Mets. He only had one strikeout in that game but showed better strikeout potential this Spring Training, striking out 11 in 12 1/3 innings.
The 25-year-old lefty will be in a favorable strikeout matchup on Saturday since Seattle has the highest K% of any team in the MLB so far this season. The Mariners have only managed 22 runs across eight games and hit only four home runs as a team, the second-lowest team total in the MLB. As a team, they are hitting just .175 against lefties this season.
Hall didn’t go long enough to qualify for the win in his first start, but he did work up to 73 pitches. That should give him room to go deep enough to get the win in this contest if he gets run support and things are going his way. At just $6,100, he’s a very affordable way to get good upside.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Michael Wacha ($8,800) Kansas City Royals (-178) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Royals added Wacha as a free agent this off-season to give their rotation some veteran depth, and he’s pitching for his sixth team in as many seasons after bouncing around baseball the last few years. Even though he’s the definition of a journeyman, he brings good enough upside to consider for GPPs on Saturday.
Part of the reason Wacha makes sense is that he’s in a great matchup against the White Sox. The Royals are the second-heaviest favorite on Saturday night’s slate behind only the Braves, and the White Sox have the lowest implied run total of any team in play Saturday night. Chicago has scored an MLB-low 13 runs in their seven games this season while hitting .186 as a team with a .263 wOBA.
Wacha was knocked around a little bit in his Royals debut, allowing three runs in five innings in a no-decision against the Orioles. He did have five strikeouts and does bring decent strikeout potential after posting just under 8.8 K/9 the last few seasons. He did have a decent Spring Training with a 3.86 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings, so his form is solid coming into this favorable spot.
Normally, Wacha isn’t a go-to fantasy option, but the matchup makes him worth a look on Saturday’s slate. Paying this much for a starting pitcher primarily for his matchup is a high-risk strategy, but one that I like in GPP where risk can be tolerated to gain upside.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
Coors Field is back! In the first game at Coors this season, the Rockies won on a walk-off grand slam from Ryan McMahon in a game that featured 25 hits and 17 runs. If you are looking for offense, Coors Field is always a top place to look.
On Saturday, righty Ryan Feltner ($5,300) will start for the Rockies after giving up five hits and five runs in five innings in his first start of the season. Feltner had a 5.82 ERA last year and gave up 14 runs in 15 innings at Coors Field, where he allowed a .362 wOBA.
The 2-3 combo of Brandon Lowe ($4,800) and Randy Arozarena ($5,900) is the centerpiece of almost every Rays stack. Arozarena has averaged 8.9 DraftKings points per game this season, hitting .241 with two homers and two stolen bases. His power and speed potential give him a high ceiling and a high floor.
There are several good options to consider around Lowe and Arozarena. There’s a solid wraparound stack featuring Jose Siri ($4,400), who typically bats ninth but gets on base in front of the top of the order. Siri offers a little pop and good speed, so I don’t mind spending up a little bit. A nice way to counteract his salary is to go with Richie Palacios ($3,800) as another outfield play. Palacios has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in the FantasyLabs projections.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Yordan Alvarez ($5,600) Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (Jon Gray)
Alvarez has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all non-Coors hitters in the 50-50 blended projections. He smashed his first two home runs of the season on Wednesday against the Blue Jays and has gone 7-for-32 (.219) with three walks and a double. He always brings plenty of power potential and can get hot and single-handedly carry the Astros’ offense.
On Saturday night, he’ll go up against Jon Gray ($7,200), who was roughed up for five runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings in his first start of the season. Last year, Gray allowed 22 home runs in 29 starts, and 14 of those 22 homers came to lefties like Alvarez.
The top of the Astros lineup looks like a good source of production, led by power lefties Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, as you can see in our PlateIQ tool:
2B Pablo Reyes ($2,700) Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles (Reid Detmers)
If you’re spending up for Coors exposure or building around that Astros power, you’ll need to find some cheap options in the infield. Fortunately, there are a couple of excellent options on Saturday’s slate.
While Reyes is definitely not a typical cleanup hitter, he is expected to hit fourth in the Red Sox lineup against lefties. He only has eight career home runs in 217 MLB games, but getting him under $3,000 makes him a good cheap play in the middle of Boston’s run production even though he doesn’t offer a ton of power.
Reyes hit .327 last season against lefties with a .337 wOBA and 109 wRC+. He has three hits and three RBI this season while helping to fill in at 2B against lefties while Vaughn Grissom (hamstring) is out. Reyes is a very solid cost-saving option that still brings good potential with the third-highest Pts/Sal of all hitters in the blended projections.
SS Josh H. Smith ($2,300) Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros (J.P. France)
Smith is another value infielder who brings good upside at a rock-bottom price. He is helping to fill in at 3B while Josh Jung (wrist) is out. Smith has hit safely in his three games since taking over for Jung after the injury, going 4-for-10 with two doubles, three runs scored and three RBI. Since he has been hitting at the bottom of the order, when he gets on base, he has the meat of the order behind him.
Last season, Smith hit only .185, but part of that was due to a below-average .222 BABIP. With some positive regression so far this season, Smith is a great play at barely more than the minimum salary in a lineup that continues to put up plenty of runs.
