The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom ($9,000) Texas Rangers (-180) vs. Rays
Saturday features some great pitching matchups, and in one of those potential pitchers’ duels, deGrom will make his second start of his comeback season for the Rangers against Taj Bradley and the Rays. The Rangers are the second-heaviest favorite on the seven-game evening slate after improving to 6-2 with a win in the first game of the series on Friday.
On this slate, deGrom has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all starting pitchers and has the highest strikeout prediction. He matches the most Pro Trends of any starter on this slate as well.
After making just three starts and totaling 10 2/3 innings last year, deGrom is looking to return to his dominant self. Although he battled an illness in Spring Training, he looked strong when available, giving up five runs but also piling up eight strikeouts in his 10 Cactus League innings.
In his first start of the season, he went five shutout innings against the Red Sox, allowing just two hits while striking out six. He earned 20.3 DraftKings points in that no-decision. In that start, he had a cap of 75 pitches or five innings and finished with 73 pitches across his five innings. He remains on track in his progression to full strength, so he should have a slightly higher limit on Saturday night and be able to go a little longer against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is tied for the fewest homers in the MLB this season with only a .098 ISO. The Rays have avoided strikeouts and are averaging 3.9 runs per game, but in this matchup, they have the lowest implied run total on the slate, setting deGrom up for a strong start.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
AJ Smith-Shawver ($7,800) Atlanta Braves (-234) vs. Miami Marlins
The Braves were the last team in the MLB to claim their first win of the season, but they finally picked up that victory on Friday night in their home opener against the Marlins. In Saturday’s game, the Braves are the heaviest favorites on the evening slate, and the Marlins have the second-lowest implied team total.
The 22-year-old Smith-Shawver had an excellent Spring Training to earn a spot in the Braves’ rotation. He allowed seven runs in 16 innings in the Grapefruit League while piling up 20 strikeouts. In his first start of the season, he went four innings against the Padres and gave up two runs on six hits and three walks. He did still have four strikeouts, though, to earn 7.6 DraftKings points.
He should be in a much better spot at home against Miami in this outing. In Triple-A, he showed strikeout upside last year with 104 strikeouts in 87 innings, and he will look to realize that potential against the Marlins, who have a 24.8% K% that ranks 11th in the MLB this season. The Marlins are hitting .231 as a team and have scored 29 runs in eight games (3.6 runs per game).
On Friday, the Marlins managed just four hits against Spencer Schwellenbach, who had 10 strikeouts in a masterful performance. Smith-Shawver will look to build on that momentum and get the Braves a second straight win on Saturday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Griffin Canning ($6,800) New York Mets (-125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Mets are giving Canning a chance to turn his career around with a scenery change after some rough years in Anaheim. He had a wildly impressive Spring Training and a decent first start, but he brings a very high ceiling for an option under $7,000. If you are okay with the risk, he should have relatively low ownership projections and be a good source of leverage.
Canning was traded to the Braves for Jorge Soler before being non-tendered and signing with the Mets as a free agent. In his 14 1/3 Grapefruit League innings, the 28-year-old righty allowed just three runs on 11 hits while racking up 22 strikeouts. While his 13.8 K/9 and 1.88 ERA from Spring Training are unsustainable in the regular season, it does show how high his ceiling can be.
He gave up two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings in his first start of the season. That was in a tough matchup against the Astros, but he still managed 13.2 DraftKings points. While it wasn’t dominant, it was a vast improvement over his previous appearances against Houston during his time with the Angels.
Canning has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on Saturday night’s slate as he makes his first home start for the Mets. He has a high ceiling and can help stretch your salary cap to include bigger bats in your tournament lineups
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using the tournament model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves seemed to find their offense somewhere along their trek home from the West Coast. After going 0-8 in San Diego and Los Angeles, they scored 10 runs and thumped the Marlins 10-0 on Friday night. They’re in a good spot to keep smashing, as they take on Cal Quantrill ($7,200) as the top stack of Saturday night.
Quantrill gave up eight hits and six runs in four innings to the Mets in his first start of the season. He actually looked okay through his first four innings but everything went sideways in the fifth inning, and he didn’t record an out before Pete Alonso hit a grand slam against him.
The top five in the Braves’ order are a strong stack to consider since he typically pitches to contact. Marcell Ozuna ($4,600) led the way with 30 DraftKings points Friday while Matt Olson ($4,700) also homered and contributed 23 DraftKings points. Harris had three hits and 15 DraftKings points and is filling in at leadoff against righties while the team waits for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) to return from injury.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brent Rooker OF ($6,100) Athletics at Colorado Rockies (German Marquez)
Coors Field is part of Saturday’s slate, and it has the highest over/under on the board, as usually is the case. The Athletics lineup has looked much improved in the early part of this season, and Rooker has the highest ceiling projection in THE BAT X projections for Saturday. Using the blended projections, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters and the highest median projection of all outfielders.
Rooker is 8-for-35 (.229) so far this season, with three home runs, seven RBIs, and an average of 8.9 DraftKings points per game. The 30-year-old has a 47.8% hard-hit rate and a 17.4% barrel rate, per Statcast, and he should be able to keep mashing against Marquez, who has been much more hittable by righties than lefties over the last few seasons.
The Athletics lineup is priced up because of their matchup at Coors, but there are some very nice options to consider including on Saturday. Here’s how they stack up against Marquez in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Randy Arozarena OF ($4,000) Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray)
Arozarena is only hitting .143 on the year and is 4-for-28, but all of those hits have gone for extra bases, including a pair of home runs. He also has six walks in eight games and has averaged 7.0 DraftKings points per game.
On Saturday night’s slate, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters under $4,500 and the second-highest ceiling projection in that salary range as well.
He has a good matchup against lefty Robbie Ray in San Francisco. Arozarena hit seven of his 20 homers last season against lefties, with a .212 ISO, .353 wOBA, and 137 wRC+ in the split. One of Ray’s splits that is also in Arozarena’s favor is that the veteran lefty had a 6.11 ERA and 5.66 FIP at home last season, even though Oracle Park is typically pitcher-friendly. Arozarena has a high ceiling based on the matchup even though his low batting average does make him boom-or-bust.
Kyle Farmer 2B ($2,900) Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics (J.P. Sears)
After time with the Dodgers, Reds, and Twins over the first eight years of this MLB career, Farmer signed as a free agent with the Rockies this offseason. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus and sixth-highest ceiling projection of all hitters under $3,000.
Farmer has already played seven games for the Rockies and has gone 6-for-18 (.333) with two doubles, three RBIs, and a walk. He had a pair of doubles and 12 DraftKings points on Friday night in the Rockies’ 6-3 loss.
On Saturday, Farmer is a good way to get cheap exposure to Coors Field. Especially against a lefty, Farmer brings good upside on Saturday night. He is 2-for-4 (.500) this season against lefties like Sears and hit .262 against southpaws last season, with a .326 wOBA and 114 wRC+ in the split. In his career, he is a .285 hitter against lefties, with a .360 wOBA and 121 wRC+.
Given his splits and the game environment, Farmer is a good bargain option that should bring leverage with his ownership projection under 10%.
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