The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
On Saturday night, there are seven games on the main DFS fantasy baseball slate, which gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET. The MLB has some interesting non-traditional matchups on tap this weekend, and none of these seven contests is a divisional matchup while three are interleague matchups.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby ($8,200) Seattle Mariners (-162) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The matchups on Saturday night are close overall without much spread in implied run totals from team to team. The starting pitcher projections are also tight across the board, but Kirby stands out as a good play since he brings such a high ceiling and a very stable floor. In the FantasyLabs projections, Kirby has the highest floor projection and the third-highest ceiling and median projections. In THE BAT X projections, Kirby has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection.
Kirby has had a few excellent outings this season along with a couple of rough outings. He looked very good in his last outing even though it was at Coors Field. He held the Rockies to five hits in five scoreless innings while stacking up seven strikeouts on his way to 21.7 DKFP in a no-decision. It was his third start of the season with over 20 DKFP and his second in a row after shutting down the Reds in his last home start.
In his 25 1/3 innings this season, Kirby has 26 strikeouts, and his elevated ERA is mostly a result of bad starts against the Blue Jays and Guardians. He has righted the ship in his last two outings, though, and he should be in a good spot against the Diamondbacks. The Mariners have surged to the top of the AL West by going 8-2 over their last 10 games and are the third-heaviest favorites on Saturday night’s slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Carlos Rodon ($7,400) New York Yankees (-135) at Milwaukee Brewers
The group of starting pitching options is tightly packed overall, but Rodon stands out as a good value play with his salary just over $7,000. Of all of the 14 starting pitchers in play Saturday, he has the highest median and ceiling projections in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Normally the players in the lower half of the salary structure don’t bring such high projections. Even though he only has the eighth-highest salary of the probable starters, Rodon has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate.
In his five starts this season, Rodon has gone just 1-1 but has a solid 2.70 ERA and 4.13 FIP. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of those five outings, including his most recent start, which was last Monday against the Athletics. In that start, he went seven scoreless innings, allowing just one hit while striking out four. He got a no-decision and finished with 20.8 DraftKings points.
Rodon’s strikeout rate isn’t as high as it was at his peak, but he has been limiting damage enough to be a good play at this price since there aren’t really any true aces with dominant stuff available.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Chris Paddack ($6,900) Minnesota Twins (+106) at Los Angeles Angels
Paddack fits the profile for a perfect GPP play this Saturday. He has a high ceiling for a pitcher under $7,000, but he also comes with very high risk. He’s a “swing for the fences” pick that gives your lineup a ton of volatility but raises the ceiling.
In his last two starts, we’ve seen the highs and lows of Paddack’s volatility. Paddack had a disastrous turn in Baltimore and ended up with -10.4 DraftKings points after giving up nine runs on 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings. He flipped the script at home against the White Sox on Monday, though, and earned 36.2 DraftKings points. In that start he struck out 10 in seven shutout innings to get his first win of the season.
The Angels are a good enough matchup to target Paddack’s upside even if he can’t put up over 35 DraftKings points again. After a stronger start than expected, the Halos have dropped seven of their last eight games and have scored three runs or fewer in five of those eight contests. On the season, they’re hitting just .237 with a .307 wOBA, and they also rank in the top 10 in the MLB in K%, which could help boost Paddack’s strikeout total.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves have the highest implied run total on the slate, so the top of their lineup again offers the top stack. They’re facing righty Tanner Bibee in Saturday’s matchup against the Guardians after taking the first game of the series, 6-2. Bibee has a 2-0 record in his five starts this season with a 4.44 ERA and 4.73 FIP. He has given up four homers on the year, three of which were hit by left-handed hitters, who have a solid .391 wOBA against him.
Since lefties hit him so well, Matt Olson is a solid part of this stack along with switch-hitter Ozzie Albies, who returned to the lineup Friday after missing 10 days with a fractured toe. Albies went 2-for-4 with a double in his return and is hitting .328 with a .398 wOBA in his 16 games this season.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has the highest median and ceiling projections of all hitters in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He still only has one homer on the season but has still produced an average of 10.4 DKFP per game thanks in large part to his 11 stolen bases.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Aaron Civale)
Normally the White Sox haven’t been a source of fantasy goodness this season, but Jimenez is an exception in Saturday’s matchup with the Rays. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in the blended projections.
Jimenez has hit three homers in his last six games, going 6-for-23 (.261) with a 62.5% hard-hit rate during that stretch. He also has a great history against Civale, going 5-for-13 in their past meetings with two home runs.
The converging trends are enough to make Jimenez a strong outfield option to play for from his salary under $4,000. He brings a lot of power potential for a play at this price, and he makes sense with his high ceiling on Saturday.
3B Josh Rojas ($3,100) Seattle Mariners vs. Arizons Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi)
The Mariners lineup has some nice options to consider, although they still lead the league in K%. The Mariners have turned things around after a slow start, though, and they have had to go with a new look at the top of their order after J.P. Crawford (oblique) landed on IL.
Against righties, Rojas looks to be the preferred option, and the 30-year-old lefty who starred with the University of Hawaii is a good value play if he can stick in that lead-off spot. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 3B on this slate.
Rojas has gone 18-for-57 (.316) in his first 19 games this season with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs, boosting him to a .396 wOBA. He has added a stolen base as well and scored three runs in his two games in the lead-off slot. Rojas should get a boost if Julio Rodriguez continues to heat up behind him, and the two make an attractive mini-stack against Cecconi in the last game on the slate.
Here’s how the Mariners lineup looks with Rojas/Rodriguez at the top in our PlateIQ tool:
1B Austin Shenton ($2,000) Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon)
Shenton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal of all hitters on the slate in the aggregated projections. The Rays rookie comes at the minimum salary and has a favorable matchup against fellow-rookie Cannon, who gave up six runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings in his last start.
With Yandy Diaz (hand) leaving Friday’s game after being hit by a pitch, there could be more playing time available for Shenton, who is batting seventh in our projections for Saturday.
Shenton made his MLB debut earlier this season and has gone 3-for-21 (.143) in his limited action so far. In the minors last year, Shenton hit 29 homers in 134 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He had a .301 average and .446 wOBA at Triple-A, so his bat is been good enough to give him a high ceiling for a play at the minimum salary on Saturday.
