The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Major League Baseball has a very busy Saturday in store for fantasy baseball players this weekend. While there are multiple great slates throughout the day, for this post, we’ll focus on the five games under the lights on Saturday night. Contests lock at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shota Imanaga ($9,400) Chicago Cubs (-205) vs. Miami Marlins
The Cubs have a doubleheader against the Marlins on Saturday, and for the second game they’ll give the ball to exciting rookie Shota Imanaga in a very favorable matchup. The Cubs are the heaviest favorites on the night slate as they face Roddery Munoz ($4,000) in his MLB debut. Run support for Imanaga shouldn’t be much of a problem, and the Japanese lefty has been extremely impressive in his work so far this season.
In his three starts, Imanaga has allowed just one unearned run over 15 1/3 innings, meaning he has a 0.00 ERA to go with a 1.51 FIP. He has 16 strikeouts in those 15 1/3 innings while posting a 3.44 SIERA. While that does indicate some breaks have gone his way, he has also had some things go against him, including a rain delay that truncated his second start of the season.
As he looks to extend his early season mastery, Imanaga gets a great matchup against the Marlins, who have averaged 3.7 runs per game this season while hitting just .214 as a team. That batting average as a team puts them in the bottom five in the MLB, which is also where they rank in home runs, ISO, and wOBA. Against lefties, they have struggled even more, with just a .192 batting average and 0.075 ISO in that split.
Imanaga’s success and the Marlins’ struggles combine to give Miami the lowest implied run total on the slate this Saturday night. Imanaga should be a stud worth building around in this start at Wrigley.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Berrios (8,400) Toronto Blue Jays (-115) at San Diego Padres
In the FantasyLabs projections, Berrios has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on Saturday night’s slate as he takes the mound in San Diego.
In his four starts this season, Berrios has allowed just three runs across 25 2/3 innings while striking out 21. He has an impressive 1.05 ERA and 3.63 FIP and has averaged 22.4 DraftKings points per start while picking up three wins. His best two starts have come in his two most recent outings, which were against the Mariners and Rockies. He threw 13 2/3 scoreless innings while allowing just six hits and striking out 13 across those starts, producing 28 and 30.2 DraftKings points.
Berrios will be in a tougher matchup against the Padres, which does make him a little riskier than Imanaga. San Diego has hit fairly well in their 11-11 start, although they have been held to just one run combined over their last two games and struck out 14 times in the series opener on Friday.
Berrios isn’t exactly a bargain, but he is poised to produce great value if he can stay in such outstanding form.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Castillo ($7,600) Seattle Mariners (-190) at Colorado Rockies
The Mariners and Rockies had the first game of their series at Coors Field rained out on Friday, but the weather looks better on Saturday. Better is relative, though, since it will still be chilly with a game-time temperature expected around 40 degrees and dropping as the game goes on. The cold air could help lessen the effect of the elevation, but it’s still always risky rolling with a starting pitcher at Coors Field. The unknown craziness of the Coors Field effect is why I see Castillo more as a GPP option than a stud or value play.
Castillo has the seventh-highest salary of Saturday’s scheduled starters, and he could end up being an amazing value if he reaches his ceiling. He has the highest ceiling projection of all starting pitchers in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections and also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus since his salary is so affordable.
Besides Coors, Castillo’s form is also a bit of a risk factor. In his four starts this season, Castillo is 0-4. He has managed to go at least five innings in each outing and pile up a total of 27 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings. His last start was his best of the season, as he allowed just two earned runs in six innings and earned 23.3 DraftKings points against the Cubs.
His strikeout potential and the Rockies’ mediocre lineup help him have a high ceiling and a good chance for his first win of the season, so he has the upside to be a great GPP option despite the Park Factor and his record so far this season.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
Even in the chilly weather at Coors, the Mariners stand out as the top stack on the slate. They’ll be facing Rockies starter Dakota Hudson ($5,700), who has given up 11 runs in 17 1/3 innings over his first three starts this season. He has gone 0-3 and allowed righties to post a .305 wOBA against him.
While the Mariners do have the highest K% in the MLB, they have won six of their last eight games and scored 17 runs in their three-game sweep of the Reds earlier this week. In the aggregated projections (explained below), Julio Rodriguez has the second-highest ceiling projection of all hitters on the slate. He has hit safely in nine of his last 10 games with an at-bat, going 11-for-42 (.262) with two doubles and two stolen bases over that stretch. He’s still looking for his first home run of the season.
Along with Rodriguez, lead-off man J.P. Crawford is a key part of the Mariners stack and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops. Jorge Polanco has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all second basemen as well. He has hit three homers in his last 11 games with a .374 wOBA and .250 ISO. He has been boom-or-bust, hitting just .182 on the season, but his power potential could pay off at Coors.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,400) Atlanta Braves vs. Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi)
The Braves continue to be a great source of offense, and Acuña has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters on Saturday night’s slate using the aggregate projections.
He still only has one home run on the season, but over the last nine games, he has gone 12-for-34 (.353) with six walks, two doubles, that home run, and seven stolen bases. He has double-digit DraftKings points in six of those nine games.
Most of his damage this season has come against righties like Eovaldi. He has a .400 wOBA against righties this year including his home run and four doubles. The rest of the Braves lineup is also worth a look against righties, as you can see from our PlateIQ tool:
OF Jonatan Clase ($3,000) Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies (Dakota Hudson)
Clase is another great option in the Mariners lineup that comes at a good price and can either be part of the stack or played separately. The 21-year-old top prospect has already made a splash in his three games since arriving in the majors earlier this week.
In the aggregated projections, Clase has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders behind only his teammate Julio Rodriguez.
Since being called up, Clase is only 2-for-11 (.182), but he has added a stolen base, two RBI, and a double to average 7.0 DraftKings points per game. He has given the Mariners lineup a nice spark and typically hits near the bottom of the lineup, where he makes up part of an intriguing wraparound stack. Last year, he showed impressive upside in the minors, producing 20 home runs and 79 stolen bases in 129 games across High-A and Double-A.
2B/SS Otto Lopez ($2,000) Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
Lopez will likely find his way into the Marlins lineup at some spot in the second game of the team’s doubleheader. The 25-year-old utility man has bounced around a bit from the Giants to the Blue Jays to the Marlins. After being claimed off waivers by Miami, Lopez caught fire in Triple-A for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. In his seven games, he went 15-for-27 (.556) with four doubles and two home runs.
Since being called up, Lopez has played three games, going 2-for-7 (.286) with two singles and two runs scored. He has hit lefties well throughout his career and will be a solid value play at the minimum salary against Imanaga and the Cubs on Saturday night.
