The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shota Imanaga ($10,000) Chicago Cubs (-142) at Seattle Mariners
In both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections, Imanaga has the highest ceiling and median projection of the six starting pitchers in play this Saturday by a wide margin. He also has the highest strikeout prediction and the lowest implied run total against. Imanaga has been very impressive in his first two MLB starts. On a small slate like this and in such a great matchup, he’s the top stud to build around.
The Cubs inked Imanaga to a four-year deal this off-season, and his transition from Nippon Professional Baseball has been very smooth so far. In 10 innings against the Rockies and Dodgers, he has yet to give up a run and has only allowed four hits while striking out 12.
He had 34.3 DraftKings points in his first game and was well on his way to another strong showing with four shutout innings against the Dodgers last Sunday before a rain delay cut short his start after just 43 pitches.
On Saturday, he faces a much more favorable matchup against the Mariners, who rank in the bottom five in the MLB in batting average, wOBA, and ISO. They lead the Majors with a 29.4% K%. His form and matchup make him almost a must-own on this limited slate even though he’s likely to have very high ownership.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Gibson ($7,100) St. Louis Cardinals (-113) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The rest of Saturday’s pitching options are a little sketchy. Of the other five options besides Imanaga, Gibson is my top option. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all probable starters on Saturday in the FantasyLabs projections.
Gibson had a great first start with the Cardinals after joining the team as a free agent over the off-season. He posted 20.2 DraftKings points in a road win over the Padres, allowing two runs in seven innings. His next start didn’t go so well, though, and he gave up seven runs to the Marlins in six innings. Six of those runs were scored in a disastrous first inning, but the veteran bounced back and still ended up going six innings in the loss.
Gibson has given up four homers in those two starts, and he’ll need to do better at keeping the ball in the yard against Arizona on Saturday. Still, given the other options, he’s the best available play and comes at a pretty workable salary of just $7,100.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Matt Waldron ($7,700) San Diego Padres (+160) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Knuckleballs are unpredictable by nature. That’s why they work sometimes and are extremely hittable at other times. Matt Waldron has shown enough potential to be a solid play at times, and I would prefer him over Gibson as my value play except for one thing: His opponent. Waldron will face the tough task of taking on the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Saturday night.
Waldron was shaky in his first start of the season, getting knocked around by the Cardinals, but he righted the ship in last Sunday’s outing against the Giants in San Francisco. He threw five scoreless innings before giving up one unearned run in the sixth before leaving after 5 and 1/3 with a no decision and 19.6 DraftKings points.
While he hasn’t racked up strikeouts in the minors, Waldron has piled up 12 strikeouts in 9 and 1/3 innings this season after posting an impressive 1.35 ERA and 2.54 FIP with 11 strikeouts in his 13 and 1/3 innings in Spring Training. His newfound strikeout upside gives him a high ceiling, and maybe the capricious knuckleball will flutter in his favor in Los Angeles. If it doesn’t, his matchup against the Dodgers gives him a very low floor.
His boom-or-bust profile makes him a good leverage play for GPPs on Saturday night, but he’s too risky for cash constructions, for which Imanaga and Gibson are better options.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers have routinely been the top offensive stack this season, and they are again this Saturday against Waldron. They have the highest implied run total on the board and lead the MLB in home runs and runs scored. As a team, they’re hitting .268 with a .353 wOBA, both of which rank in five in the MLB. At home, they have been even better with a .285 batting average and a .382 wOBA.
In both THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections, Shohei Ohtani has the highest median and ceiling projections of all hitters. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games and is 16-for-35 (.457) with six multi-hit games, 12 extra-base hits, and a .645 wOBA over that stretch.
Since you can slide Shohei to 1B or OF, you can stack him up with Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts in the infield. In the stack highlighted above, there’s a little bit of salary relief available as well from James Outman, who makes the five-player stack a little more affordable at just over $26,000.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Brendan Donovan ($3,900) St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
The Cardinals are another lineup to lean into on this limited slate in their favorable spot against Ryne Nelson, who has allowed eight runs in 7 and 2/3 innings this year. He has been hit hard by righties and lefties since arriving in the Majors at the end of 2022, but lefties have a .448 wOBA against him in this season’s small sample size.
Donovan has typically been atop the lineup for the Cardinals this season and is hitting a solid .298 after picking up three hits in the first game of this series on Friday, including a triple. Donovan has a 40.0% hard-hit rate this season per Statcast, with three barrels in his last four games. He doesn’t offer elite speed but is still a strong play as a lead-off hitter in a lineup that should be productive. He has a .365 wOBA on the season with a .255 ISO.
The Cardinals lineup should be a solid source of value as well, since Donovan, Victor Scott and Masyn Winn are the top three hitters in Projected Plus/Minus using the aggregate projections on Saturday’s slate. Check out how they look against righties in our PlateIQ tool:
1B Michael Busch ($3,100) Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (Emerson Hancock)
After being traded from the Dodgers to the Cubs this off-season, Busch has been making the most of his chance at regular playing time and establishing himself as a good low-cost alternative at 1B, especially when the Cubs take on right-handed starting pitchers like Hancock.
Busch has the most Pts/Sal of all 1B in the aggregate projections and is hitting .293 after 13 games, with three homers and a .411 wOBA. Against righties, he has a .458 wOBA and three home runs, two of which have come in his last two games. He also doubled on Friday night in addition to his ninth-inning homer and finished with 19 DraftKings points.
In his 13 games, Busch has shown good power potential, and he’ll be a key part of the Cubs’ lineup in what should be a good matchup. Hancock has allowed four home runs and 17 runs in his 20 and 2/3 innings in the MLB, so building around Busch and Co. is a good option on Saturday.
OF Jackson Merrill ($2,900) San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (Gavin Stone)
At just 20 years old, Merrill is already establishing himself as a huge part of the Padres’ present and future. Merrill is hitting .304 after going 2-for-4 with a walk on Friday night. He has at least 9.0 DraftKings points in four of his last five games with a pair of stolen bases and a pair of multi-hit performances.
On the season, he has a 44.4% hard-hit rate per Statcast, and there hasn’t been anything fluky about his production. While his low spot in the batting order does make him a bigger risk, he brings both power and speed potential at a very affordable salary.
