The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo ($9,200) Seattle Mariners (-149) vs. Texas Rangers
Saturday night’s starting pitching slate is an interesting one without any elite names that jump out as studs. However, Woo is a strong play for the Mariners, especially since he’s getting the ball at pitcher-friendly T-Moble Park. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections on the 12-team evening slate.
Woo has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest strikeout prediction while matching the second-most Pro Trends of any starter on this slate. The Rangers have the lowest implied team total on the board, so Woo should be in a good spot to find success.
The 25-year-old righty started the season strong with a home start against the Athletics. He gave up just one run in six innings in that outing, posting 22.5 DraftKings points. Woo also went six innings in his second start of the season, but he gave up four runs in San Francisco to the Giants, with a three-run homer off the bat of Mike Yastrzemski, the big blow in that contest. He ended up with 13.9 DraftKings points but wasn’t as effective as in his season debut. Overall in his 12 innings, he has 11 strikeouts and just three walks.
He has been knocked around by the Rangers in their previous meetings but did have 3 2/3 shutout innings against them the only time he faced them in Seattle. He was stronger at home than on the road last season as well, and the fact that he’s in Seattle for this start helps him bring the best ceiling and floor of the 12 scheduled starters this Saturday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Andrew Heaney ($6,600) Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) at Cincinnati Reds
Heaney has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections, as he takes the mound in Cincinnati against the Reds. He has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is a great value option, as he makes his third start for the Pirates.
Last year, the veteran lefty pitched in 32 games for the Rangers and had a 4.28 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and 8.9 K/9. He is off to a better start this season and has looked sharp in each of his two starts, even though both resulted in no decisions. He started the year with a five-inning outing in Miami, giving up just one run and picking up 10.3 DraftKings points. he was even better last time out against the Yankees, giving up just five hits and one run while racking up 10 strikeouts in seven innings on his way to 30.2 DraftKings points even without the added bonus of getting the win.
Heaney will look to build on that momentum Saturday night in Cincinnati. The Reds have shown plenty of power this season but are hitting just .203 as a team with a .269 wOBA that is the second-lowest in the MLB, behind only Heaney’s Pirates. The Reds also have an MLB-worst 65 wRC+ as a team through their first 14 games.
While Great American Ballpark isn’t a great pitching environment, it isn’t quite as difficult until the weather gets warmer. Heaney should be able to return value at this low salary even if his run support continues to be lacking.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kyle Hart ($6,400) San Diego Padres (-170) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Padres rotation was stretched thin by injury, allowing Hart to claim a starting spot coming out of Spring Training. The 32-year-old journeyman lefty should have relatively low ownership projections and be a good source of leverage for GPPs since he comes with high risk abut also good upside when he makes his third start of the season.
Hart spent last year in the KBO after spending seven years in the minors with the Red Sox, Mariners, and Phillies. He looked solid in his season debut, allowing two runs in five innings at home against the Guardians. He had four strikeouts in those five innings and picked up the win while earning 15.7 DraftKings points. His most recent outing didn’t go as well, though, and he lasted just 2/3 of an inning against the Cubs, issuing four walks, giving up five runs on two hits, and ending up with -12.1 DraftKings points.
Despite that rough outing, Hart is worth a look in GPP contests this Saturday since he’s in a good matchup at home against the Rockies. Colorado has the highest K% in the MLB this season and struck out 15 times Friday while managing only three hits. On the road, the Rockies are hitting only .189 as a team with an MLB-low .236 road wOBA.
It should be a good spot for him to put his last outing behind him and get back on track at Petco Park.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points and by ceiling projections using the tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are 11-4 to start the season after knocking off the Cubs 3-0 to start their current homestand. On Saturday, they’ll go against righty Ben Brown ($7,500), who has given up 11 runs in 11 2/3 innings to start the season. Brown has shown plenty of strikeout potential but has been hit hard this season and also issued nine walks. Right-handed hitters have a .454 wOBA against him in the early going this season.
The Dodgers stack stats at the top with Shohei Ohtani ($6,600) and Mookie Betts ($6,100). Ohtani has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all hitters, and Betts has the third-highest ceiling projection of all hitters. The two superstars combined for just one hit on Friday, but they usually produce plenty of DraftKings points if you can find a way to pay up for their hefty salaries.
Teoscar Hernandez ($4,900) and Will Smith ($4,700) are solid pieces to add to the stack under $5,000, and you can even go with Andy Pages ($2,800) as a bargain play to create the back-door 9-1-2 stack if he continues to hit last in the batting order.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF ($6,000) San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Chase Dollander)
The Padres host the Rockies and face rookie top prospect Chase Dollander ($7,700). Dollander got the win in his first MLB start last Sunday but gave up four runs in five innings to the Athletics. He had six strikeouts and is a good long-term prospect, but he has a tough matchup against Tatis and the Padres on Saturday.
After missing one game with a shoulder injury, Tatis looked very healthy on Friday night, going 2-for-4 with a home run and a stolen base to earn 24 DraftKings points. He is hitting a blistering .375 (14-for-48) from San Diego’s lead-off spot this season, with a 52.3% hard-hit rate, a .447 wOBA, and a .208 ISO. He has three home runs and six stolen bases, giving him multiple ways to contribute a big game in any given matchup.
The Padres’ lineup should be a nice place to find good value and upside against Dollander. Here’s how they stack up in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Joey Bart C ($3,300) Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
It’s unusual to see a catcher hitting third in the batting order, and it’s also unusual to have a catcher in the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus for all hitters on the slate. Bart fills both those spots in our aggregate projections this Saturday.
In his 12 games this season, he is 11-for-40 (.275) with a double, a triple, a home run, and even a stolen base to average 6.8 DraftKings points per game. The former top prospect with the Giants found a nice spot in Pittsburgh last season and especially excelled against lefties like Abbott. In his 66 at-bats against southpaws, Bart hit .333 with five homers and a .427 wOBA last year.
He was forced to leave Friday night’s game with lower-back discomfort, but as long as he’s in the lineup on Saturday, he’ll be a great way to save salary and still get a hitter with plenty of upside in a favorable matchup.
Kyle Farmer 2B/SS ($2,400) Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (Kyle Hart)
Farmer went 3-for-4 with two doubles on Friday night in San Diego, but the rest of his team went 0-for-27 in their shutout loss to the Padres. The veteran middle infielder has been a very nice addition to the struggling Rockies’ batting order this season and is hitting .351 (13-for-37) on the season with a .382 wOBA, five doubles, and three walks.
Farmer hit second in the order on Friday after hitting third on Thursday. If he keeps hitting near the top of the order, he’ll have good run production potential even though the Rockies lineup has been scuffling, especially on the road.
In his career, Farmer is a .287 hitter against lefties, with a .352 wOBA and 122 wRC+. In this matchup with lefty Kyle Hart, he has a great chance to stay hot and return great value as a play just over the minimum salary, with dual eligibility at both 2B and SS to increase his flexibility in your roster construction.
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