The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($10,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) vs. Atlanta Braves
With most MLB teams having played either three or four games so far this season, that means we’re at the back of the pitching rotation in a lot of spots today. However, the Dodgers opened the season a week early, pushing them into a different spot than their competitors.
Glasnow is listed as the third or fourth starter in the Dodgers rotation, but he would be an ace on many MLB teams this year. He’s coming off a sixth straight season with a 30% or higher strikeout rate, though his ERA was a somewhat poor (by ace standards) 3.49.
It looks like he was probably just unlucky, though. His SIERA, xFIP, and xERA were all below 3.00. On top of that, he’s pitching in front of one of the best fielding teams in baseball this season, so his actual ERA should fall to, if not below, his ERA indicators.
He’s a no-doubt play today, leading the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection despite his five-figure price point.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Ben Brown ($7,500) Chicago Cubs (-128) at Athletics
Things get a bit sketch after Glasnow on DraftKings. One intriguing option is the Cubs Ben Brown, who came on as a reliever for the Cubs series against the Dodgers in Tokyo this season. It was a mixed bag, with Brown allowing two earned runs over 2.2 innings — but also striking out five of the eight hitters he retired.
That tracks with his 2024 numbers, as he had an elite strikeout rate of 33.3% while alternating between starting and relieving. His ERA was also considerably better as a starter, though it’s a small enough sample size that we shouldn’t get too excited.
The 25-year-old averaged just under five innings pitched per start, and it’s a fair question how deep he’ll pitch into this one. His longest appearance in spring training was 4.1 innings, which came after his appearance in Tokyo.
Still, with his strikeout upside and price tag, he could be a solid play with four innings and a very good one if he lasts five. That’s well within the range of possibilities against a somewhat beatable A’s lineup. He’s tied with Glasnow for the Pts/Sal lead on Monday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Drew Rasmussen ($8,500) Tampa Bay Rays (-200) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Rasmussen isn’t exactly a sneaky play on Monday, but his projected ownership has him third on the slate behind Glasnow and Brown. He comes into this one with very solid Vegas data — not only are the Rays -200 favorites, but the Pirates are implied for just 3.4 runs. That’s the lowest total outside of the Braves against Glasnow.
Like Brown, Rasmussen split his time between starting and relieving last season but posted excellent overall numbers. His strikeout rate was north of 30%, with a 2.83 ERA. However, he was used more as an opener than a true starter, averaging less than two innings pitched per game.
His spring training usage this year suggests he’ll be more of a traditional starter, with his last two appearances going for at least four innings. However, it’s reasonable to question if his effectiveness continues over longer outings, giving him a wide range of outcomes.
For that reason, he’s a solid GPP pivot from Glasnow/Brown, but not somebody I’d look to in cash games. He ranks third in both median and ceiling projections on the slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
There’s never a bad time to stack the Dodgers, given how absurdly potent their lineup is — particularly at the top. Tonight is an especially good time, though, for a few reasons.
The matchup with Atlanta’s Grant Holmes ($7,000), who was used exclusively in relief last season, is one reason why.
The weather in Los Angeles is another. Per Weather Edge, the expected field conditions tonight boost scoring by 18%, largely thanks to steady winds blowing out to right center. That’s especially helpful for the three lefties in the top of the Dodgers order.
Affording this stack is tough, but it can be done and could be the key to putting up big points tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kerry Carpenter ($4,200) Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners (Emerson Hancock)
Often I use PlateIQ to find spots where hitters have elite platoon splits against left-handed pitching. That makes sense, since hitters face more righties than lefties and are priced for their overall production. The Tigers Carpenter is an example of the inverse:
Those are his numbers against righties, and they’re elite. The drawback is the Tigers are more than willing to pinch hit for “Kerry Bonds” against lefties, so there’s no guarantee he gets all nine innings to work. Still, he might not need it.
Luken Baker 1B ($2,300) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
If we’re going to afford some or all of the Dodgers stack, we need to save lots of salary elsewhere. The Cardinals are probably our best option to do so.
Their top five hitters average just over $3,500 in salary, but they’re implied for 4.8 runs tonight. That’s just 0.1 runs off the slate-leading Dodgers and Blue Jays.
I’m highlighting Baker here because he’s the cheapest of their early lineup hitters, and he had great numbers against lefties — albeit in a tiny sample size — so far in his young career. However, the full stacks or mini stacks are firmly in play.
Bo Bichette SS ($4,700) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals (Michael Soroka)
Bichette had a horribly down year in 2024, finishing with a wRC+ of just 71 after five straight years of at least 120.
He seems to be past that, starting 2025 hot with seven hits in the first four games of the season. Two of those were doubles, and he’s yet to hit a home run, but the power will likely warm up as the temperatures do.
It’s a somewhat weak slate for shortstops today outside of Betts (who is also eligible in the outfield), making Bichette more valuable in comparison. He’s already seen his salary jump $600 this year, and it probably will continue in that direction, so play him now before we’re priced out.
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