The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler ($10,700) Philadelphia Phillies (-210) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wheeler is currently leading both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models in median and ownership projections, making him the obvious choice for this spot. However, it’s worth noting before we dig too deep that there’s some potential weather issues in this game. As of this morning, a delay is unlikely, but be sure to keep an eye on the situation.
With that out of the way, Wheeler has been elite this season. His ERA of 2.32 is eighth among qualified starters, with similarly strong ERA indicators. With an excellent 29% strikeout rate that’s also supported by underlying numbers, he’s a front-line starter by any metric.
I do have some concerns about the matchup, though. Milwaukee ranks second in wRC+ as a team against righties. They balance that out with a somewhat high strikeout rate, but they aren’t a team we want to target by any stretch.
However, with Vegas firmly on the side of the Phillies, the likeliest outcome is a solid start for Wheeler. He’s the safest pick on the slate — making him a cash-game lock — but I think we can do better for GPPs considering his popularity.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryne Nelson ($5,800) Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) vs. San Francisco Giants
There are solid value options at various price points on Monday’s slate. Given the context of the slate — two five-figure pitchers projecting well plus a game at Coors Field — it probably makes sense to go as cheap as possible with your SP2.
That’s where Nelson comes in. He hasn’t been good this season, with an ERA over six. However, he also hasn’t been as bad as that number, with his ERA predictors all in the low fours. The visiting Giants are implied for a middling 4.3 runs, which should translate to a usable score for Nelson.
It’s hard to project much upside, though, given his 16.5% strikeout rate. If you can scrape together another $2,000 or so in salary, players like Nathan Eovaldi ($7,600) and Kevin Gausman ($8,000) provide a bit more in that department.
Ultimately, it comes down to your roster build. I’d obviously prefer the mid-priced pitchers, but finding the salary is a challenge. All three have similar Pts/Sal projections in the FantasyLabs models, where they’re collectively well ahead of the rest of the field.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tarik Skubal ($10,500) Detroit Tigers (-113) at Texas Rangers
I was pretty surprised to see Skubal trailing Wheeler in both median projection and projected ownership today. It’s the case in both projection sets, but I strongly prefer the Tigers’ ace on Monday.
Part of that is his own numbers. He has a higher strikeout rate than Wheeler and lower ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA marks. Basically, he’s been better across the board while averaging an identical number of innings per start. Sure, Skubal has less win equity thanks to the offense behind him, but that’s not a major factor.
Crucially, he also has a far better matchup. While Wheeler is facing a team with a 120 wRC+ against his handedness, the Rangers have an 85 mark against lefties, with strikeout rates within half of a percent. That more than justifies giving up a somewhat higher chance of a win bonus, especially if ownership projections hold. Getting Skubal for less salary and at less ownership is a steal here, and he’s my favorite pay-up option for all contest types.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The game between the Reds and the Rockies at Coors Field has an implied total of 11 — with no other games above nine. For that reason alone, it seemed fairly obvious that one of those two teams would produce the top-rated stack in our models.
Largely thanks to their salaries, our models prefer the Rockies. They also have a solid pitching matchup with Andrew Abbott ($6,800) of the Reds. Abbott’s 3.29 ERA is strong, but he’s a low-strikeout, high fly-ball pitcher, which typically doesn’t play well in Colorado.
Additionally, the Rockies hit lefties like Abbott better than the Reds hit righties, so in theory they’re the stronger team here. It’s worth nothing that both teams are well below average against the pitcher handedness they’re facing today, though, so temper your expectations.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
TJ Friedl OF ($5,000) Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
With the Reds’ 5.9-run implied total leading the slate, we’re obviously interested in their side of the Coors Field matchup as well. It’s worth noting here that the large dimensions of Coors Field somewhat cancel out the thin air, so the boost in offense in Colorado isn’t driven primarily by home runs.
In fact, it’s actually a downgrade from Great American Ball Park in that category according to MLB.com’s Park Factors. However, singles, doubles, and triples all get a big boost, which is where the speedy Friedl comes into play.
He leads the Reds in projection, as you can see here in PlateIQ:
Corbin Carroll OF ($4,400) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (Spencer Howard)
The 23-year-old Carroll is having a down year, with his batting average a miserable .194. However, there’s plenty of room for optimism. His BABIP is more than 60 points lower than his career average, and it’s unlikely the decline is due to a loss of foot speed given his age.
He hit 25 home runs and stole more than 50 bases last season and has similar batted ball data this year. He probably doesn’t have enough time to get back to those numbers, but he’s a safe bet to get on a similar pace for the remainder of 2024.
It’s a solid matchup today against Spencer Howard ($6,000). Howard has just one scoreless appearance in 2024, but his career ERA is 6.96
