The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($9,500) Milwaukee Brewers (-177) vs. Texas Rangers
There are two pitchers on Monday’s slate who have a 30%+ strikeout rate on the season. One of them is facing the Dodgers — and the other is Freddy Peralta. He has a much easier matchup against the Rangers, the 24th-ranked team in wRC+ against right handed pitching on the season.
Peralta has also been considerably better than his 4.06 ERA, with his ERA predictors ranging from 3.17 to 3.75. We’re at the point in the season where I’m starting to put a bit more faith in actual ERA, but that’s still an encouraging sign for Peralta. Both his BABIP and HR/FB rates are somewhat elevated compared to his career average and should, in theory, regress to the mean at some point.
There’s some reasonable concern around Peralta’s upside as Texas strikes out at one of the lowest rates in the league. That makes him more interesting for cash games, as the matchup should be fairly safe. Not to say he’s a bad GPP play, though. His reasonable salary (relative to his performance) and the considerable question marks about the other pitchers at the top keep him firmly in the conversation.
He leads THE BAT in median and ceiling projection while coming in third in the FantasyLabs Models.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Griffin Canning ($6,100) Los Angeles Angels (-135) vs. Oakland A’s
Both projection systems agree on the best value play on the slate: the Angels Griffin Canning. At just $6,100, he doesn’t need a massive projection to stand out — which is fortunate because he has just a 15.4% strikeout rate on the season.
To be fair to Canning, that number should be higher. His 9.8% swinging strike rate would typically translate to a strikeout rate in the low 20s, and his career mark is 22.8%. He’s also taking on the A’s, who strike out at the second-highest rate against righties in the majors.
Canning is more of a GPP value play for me today, as he hasn’t been great in run prevention. His 5.02 ERA is firmly in line with his ERA predictors, and Oakland is better at scoring runs (22nd ranked wRC+) than avoiding strikeouts.
That makes him a high-risk, high-reward option on Monday’s slate, with only mediocre Vegas data.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cole Ragans ($10,100) Kansas City Royals (-247) vs. Miami Marlins
There are a few different directions we could go with this. One is the fore-referenced Garret Crochet ($9,700), who has elite numbers but is taking on the Dodgers. Los Angeles is the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching, with a 133 wRC+ and an 18.8% strikeout rate.
The worst team against lefties is the Miami Marlins, which makes this a good day to roster Cole Ragans. Miami has a pathetic 68 wRC+ against southpaws, by far the lowest of any team against any pitcher’s handedness.
While their strikeout rate is a moderate 21.3%, Ragans is strong enough in that department (28.9%) to make up for it. He’s also elite in run prevention, with a 3.13 ERA and similar underlying numbers. Even if his strikeouts per inning aren’t especially high today, he should last deeper into this game than the rookie Crochet.
He’s my favorite GPP play on the slate, especially if paired with a cheaper option like Canning or Matt Waldron ($8.300). Either of those combinations should come in at fairly low ownership tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
I always appreciate a good correlation play, so I was happy to see the Royals as the top stack in our models. Their success obviously ties in nicely with Ragan picking up the four-point win bonus tonight.
Additionally, their paltry salaries make it easier to afford Ragans, so a Royals super stack makes a ton of sense tonight. They’re implied for six runs against the Marlins and Roddery Munoz ($6,600), who has an xERA of 7.00 through six starts.
Be sure to keep an eye on our Lineups page this afternoon, as it’s somewhat likely that the super cheap options in this stack will see some movement before lock. Either way, it’s likely that whatever permutation the Royals roll out will be strong for DFS — but we want to make sure to get the right one.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Stuart Fairchild OF ($2,800) Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter)
The Reds are taking on lefty Bailey Falter ($6,800) tonight at home. Cincinnati has fairly noticeable platoon splits as a team, hitting lefties about 11% better than righties.
Using PlateIQ, we can see which Reds batters are causing that difference:
While he doesn’t provide much power, Fairchild’s .353 wOBA is extremely strong — especially relative to his salary. He’s a lefty specialist, with roughly two-thirds of his plate appearances this season coming against southpaws.
This means he could be pinch-hit for late in this game if it remains close and Pittsburgh brings in a right-handed reliever. Still, he should be able to do enough damage relative to his salary before that point.
Bryan De La Cruz OF ($3,200) Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
If you’re fading Ragans, the best way to get leverage against him is through De La Cruz. The Marlins outfielder is one of their few hitters to buck their platoon splits as a team, with a .292 batting average against lefties on the season.
He also has solid power with 14 home runs, making him a reasonably high upside piece at a low salary. Ragans’ ownership probably won’t be high enough that getting leverage against him is a must, but it certainly helps considering Ragans projects behind only Peralta.
Will Smith C ($5,300) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox (Garret Crochet)
It’s a tough matchup for the Dodgers tonight against Crochet, but if any team can overcome it, it’s them. That’s due to hitters like Smith, who have a .362 average and 1.140 OPS against lefties on the year.
Smith’s ownership projections are about as low as we’ll ever see against a lefty, making him a solid contrarian option. I prefer Perez in lineups where I’m stacking the Royals, but will look to find the extra $200 to get to Smith in my other lineups.
