The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a 5-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,500) Atlanta Braves (-185) at Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s a pretty small slate, with only one true ace taking the mound today. That would be Sale, who’s having quite the comeback season with the Braves after joining Atlanta this year. He has a 2.71 ERA but even better underlying metrics, with a 32.7% K rate that ranks third among qualified starters.
With that said, it’s not an easy matchup today. Arizona hits lefties much better than righties, with their wRC+ as a team jumping from 104 to 119 — tied for fifth in all of baseball. Sale can certainly overcome that, but it also lowers his odds of having a massive score.
Still, he might not need one on Monday. With so few options, he could easily be the only pitcher to hit 20 DraftKings points, so his slate-leading 20.39-point projection in the FantasyLabs Model is more valuable than usual. The real question is whether he performs well enough to justify both his salary and ownership projection, both of which are the highest on the slate.
I prefer to look elsewhere in massive GPPs, as the odds are one of the other nine pitchers will be close enough to Sale to edge him out. For cash games and smaller tournaments, his combination of safety and upside is too good to pass up, though.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Keider Montero ($4,000) Detroit Tigers (+122) vs. Cleveland Guardians
It doesn’t make any sense for DraftKings to have left Montero at the minimum salary. Since getting the opportunity to start for the Tigers, he’s lasted at least 4.1 innings in each of his appearances, most recently scoring 16.84 DraftKings points across 6.1 innings against the Twins.
While Montero is not some highly-touted prospect, getting any non-opener at his price point is a massive value. If he can approach double-digit DraftKings points, he’s essentially a lock for the best Pts/Sal option on the slate. That’s how both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models have him projected today.
The matchup with Cleveland is somewhat difficult, but they rank just above average against righties. Montero was just fine against the Twins — a tougher team on paper — last time out, and anywhere near that result makes him a must-play today.
He’s still projecting at fairly low ownership today, making him a lock in all contest types. If his ownership creeps up, I’d consider a fade for big GPPs. However, he’d need to get blown up badly to fail at this salary, so any Montero fade should include a Guardians stack.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Chris Paddack ($7,500) Minnesota Twins (-185) at Chicago White Sox
There are fairly big holes that can be poked in all of the other options today, but if fading Sale or Montero we have to roster somebody else. By virtue of having the lowest ownership projection among the viable options, Paddack is my favorite of the group.
He also has an elite matchup against a White Sox team with the worst wRC+ in baseball against righties, which also goes a long way. They’re roughly average in strikeouts — which limits Paddack’s upside — but we aren’t expecting a huge score from him anyway.
He brings a 5.29 ERA, but xFIP and SIERA numbers right around 4.00, into the contest. His 20.3% strikeout rate is similarly mediocre, but the same can be said for all the non-Sale pitchers today. With the White Sox implied for 4.2 runs and the Twins fairly heavily favored, he also has solid Vegas Data relative to the slate and his price point.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds’ 5.5-run implied total is essentially tied for the top mark on the slate today, with Minnesota checking in just one-tenth of a run ahead. However, the equivalent Twins stack costs about $1,000 more, giving the Reds the edge.
Their projection is based on the matchup and location of today’s game. Great American Ball Park is the best home run park in baseball, boosting the long ball by 24%. They’re taking on a starter in Ryan Feltner ($5,500) with a 5.60 ERA and a 19.3% strikeout rate.
That should mean plenty of balls in play — and in the air — with favorable hitting weather as well. Given the salary flexibility provided by this stack, they’re a fairly easy option tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willi Castro 2B/OF ($4,800) Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
We should obviously be getting some exposure to the Twins today, thanks to their high total. While none of Minnesota’s players stand clearly above the rest, I do have an interest in left-handed (or, in the case of Castro, switch-hitting) batters.
That’s because of the extreme splits exhibited by Chris Flexen ($6,500), as seen in PlateIQ:
One could build a whole five-hitter stack out of Twins lefties/switch hitters, which makes a lot of sense, given the matchup.
Josh Naylor 1B ($5,600) Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers (Keider Montero)
I mentioned wanting to stack the Guardians in lineups that fade Monetero, as a complete blowup is likely the only way he doesn’t end up in winning lineups, given his salary.
Full stacks are hard — Cleveland is expensive, and Montero is the slate’s best salary relief option — but there are some viable options on the Guardians. One of those is Naylor, who has an .842 OPS against righties on the season.
Ideally, he’d be paired with Jose Ramirez ($6,500), who leads all third baseman in median projection, but Naylor has better numbers against righties at a much cheaper price. If I can only fit one or the other, I’m taking Naylor.
