The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Greene ($8,200) Cincinnati Reds (+123) at Atlanta Braves
It’s a bit strange to see an underdog pitcher lead both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in median projection, but that’s where we’re at on Monday. Greene and the Reds are slight ‘dogs in their matchup with the Braves, but that’s largely due to the Cincinnati offense, not Greene.
What was once an extremely tough matchup with Atlanta has gotten much easier without Ronald Acuna and now Ozzie Albies. Atlanta now ranks 24th in wRC+ against righties on the season, with a top-five strikeout rate. It’s certainly a winnable matchup for Greene, who brings a 3.34 ERA and 27.6% strikeout rate into the contest.
Plus, it’s an upgrade for Greene to go from his home ballpark to Atlanta, which has a slightly better Park Factor for pitchers. The difficulty of pitching in Cincinnati explains the difference between Greene’s ERA and xERA, which is about a third of a run lower.
Greene has transformed into more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher this season, sacrificing strikeouts to pitch deeper into games and limit scoring. Normally, that would be a bad thing for DFS, but at just over $8,000, he should do more than enough to pay off his salary. He’s a solid pick on DraftKings, where his 97% Bargain Rating highlights the value he brings.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hogan Harris ($5,300) Oakland A’s (+122) vs. Houston Astros
I’m not sure we necessarily need to go dumpster diving at pitcher today, with plenty of solid options in the $7,000-$8,000 range that could be played together. If you want to limit ownership for large field GPPs, though, going super cheap at pitcher and spending up at hitter is one way to go about it.
There are a couple of options, but Harris has the best projections of them. He trails only Greene in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs models while obviously coming in much cheaper. Harris has a tricky stat line to figure out this season: his ERA is a solid 3.40, but his ERA indicators are in the fives. Typically, that points to some regression, but he’s now eight starts into the season.
While his regressing at some point is still likely, this game being at home — Oakland is tied for 29th in Park factor for hitters — limits the risk a bit today. Houston represents a somewhat difficult matchup, but they rank 12th in wRC+ against lefties. That’s not ideal, but not an immediate fade, either.
Harris has gone at least five innings with three or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven starts, which should be enough at his price point to keep lineups in contention.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tanner Houck ($8,500) Boston Red Sox (-169) at Colorado Rockies
Good starters facing a bad Rockies team at Coors Field is always a conundrum. On the one hand, the Vegas Data isn’t great. Colorado is implied for 4.7 runs, largely thanks to the boost provided by their home ballpark. On the other, Houck looks great this season, with a 2.54 ERA and a fringe Cy Young candidacy.
What makes me bullish on Houck today is how he pitches. His 24.4% flyball rate is fifth-lowest among qualified starters this season and certainly helps his case at Coors. The thin air and spacious dimensions of Coors Field aren’t really an issue if the ball stays on the ground.
The other selling point is, of course, the opponent. Colorado ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties and 28th in strikeout rate. While Houck isn’t a big strikeout pitcher at 23.5%, he could rack up a few against this lineup. He trails only Greene in K Prediction in our models.
While I probably wouldn’t consider Houck for cash games, his low ownership makes him an excellent GPP candidate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
“Visiting team at Coors” almost always projects as the top stack on the board, and today is no different. Boston is implied for six runs tonight against Austin Gomber ($5,000) and the Rockies. While Boston is on the wrong side of their (collective) platoon splits against the lefty, Gomber’s ERA and ERA indicators are all in the mid-four range.
That his xERA (and other park-adjusted indicators) is actually higher than his ERA shows it’s not just the Coors effect — Gomber is a bad pitcher. Boston will also face the Rockies bullpen for a good chunk of this game, with presumably many of those ABs coming against righties.
It also makes sense to swap out hitters like Duran or possibly Devers — who have especially bad lefty splits — for some down-lineup Red Sox. That would both save salary and avoid the lefty-on-lefty matchup issues. Some of the hitters at the bottom of the order have solid platoon splits, albeit in fairly small sample sizes.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($5,500) Houston Astros at Oakland A’s (Hogan Harris)
One lefty-on-lefty matchup I’m not looking to avoid — except in lineups with Harris — is Yordan Alvarez. The Astros slugger has reverse splits, hitting fellow lefties better than righties. That trend is apparent in PlateIQ:
My (mild) interest in Harris means I won’t go too heavy on Alvarez today, but he’ll be in almost all of my other lineups.
Victor Robles OF ($2,400) Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Assuming his projected No. 2 spot in the lineup holds, Robles is far too cheap for his role. Seattle is implied for a bit over four runs, so getting the second hitter in a lineup like that at his price point is a steal.
In limited action this season, the speedy Robles is hitting .288 with 11 steals. That puts him on pace for north of 40 stolen bags over the course of a full season. He’s a much-needed salary relief option if spending up at other spots.
JT Realmuto C ($4,500) Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober)
The one game that is showing weather favorable to hitters on Monday is this one in Minnesota, where Weather Edge is predicting a 20% bump to home runs based on the expected conditions.
Getting some exposure there could be crucial for the slate, and one way to do so is Realmuto. It’s typically hard to find production from the catcher spot — catchers are the tight ends of MLB DFS — so finding one with some upside could be a huge differentiator. Realmuto missed some time heading into the All-Star Break but should be 100% on Monday’s slate.
