The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a three-game slate starting at 3:07 p.m. ET. Of note, the two-game slate starting at 6:45 is comprised of the same games, just without Astros-Jays — so the analysis here applies to both slates.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
MacKenzie Gore ($9,800) Washington Nationals (-105) vs. New York Mets
It’s been a breakout season for MacKenzie Gore, a third-year player who was traded to Washington as part of the Juan Soto deal. After posting ERAs in the mid-fours each of the first two seasons in the big leagues, he’s cut his number to 3.60 this year.
It’s worth noting for DFS that his strikeout rate is up to a solid 26.6% as well, which is supported by a swinging strike rate jump. With those numbers, it’s easy to see why he’s the leader in median and ceiling projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models out of the six available pitchers.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily a good play. With his salary $1,300 ahead of the next most-expensive player, he could post the best score and still not win you any contests, especially with the matchup he has today. The Mets are the second-best offense in baseball against lefties by wRC+, behind only the Dodgers.
His strikeout upside and the lack of options on this slate make Gore the safest bet to score in the upper teens, but I have my concerns. Factoring in his ownership, that makes him a solid cash game play but probably not worth the salary for (large field) GPPs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bryse Wilson ($6,000) Milwaukee Brewers (-156) at Colorado Rockies
Despite his $6,000 salary, Wilson and the Brewers have the best moneyline odds on Monday’s slate. Of course, much of that is due to Milwaukee’s offense — which is implied for more than six runs at Coors Field.
Wilson is one of two pitchers — the other being the Mets David Peterson ($7,300) — with solid ERA numbers on the year but much worse underlying metrics. Typically, we try to avoid players like that, but we don’t have that luxury on a three-game slate.
Peterson leads THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projection, while Wilson holds that spot in the FantasyLabs models. I see it as more of a cash game vs. GPP decision, though. While both opposing offenses are relatively similar, Wilson has a wider range of outcomes.
The Brewer’s righty has a considerably higher K prediction, but things could go south in a hurry with this game being at Coors. Peterson has less upside but also a lower chance of getting blown up by a bad Nationals offense.
Given Peterson is also projecting for much higher ownership, that makes Wilson the superior — but scary — GPP option.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($8,500) Houston Astros (-143) at Toronto Blue Jays
Hunter Brown’s salary has finally recovered to the level it was in his first start of the year, after a horrible month or so to start the season drove his price tag down. His ERA in March/April was a terrible 9.78, fell to 3.42 in May, and he finished June at 1.16.
I don’t really believe in players getting “hot,” or anything like that, but Brown clearly figured something out partway through the season. He’s topped 23 DraftKings points in each of his last four starts, with three of those coming in at 27 or more. Of course, he faced the Rockies (in Houston), White Sox, Tigers, and Angels in that stretch — all bottom-eight lineups against right-handed pitching.
Still, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus score in every game since May 5th, so it isn’t just the matchups causing his success. Besides, Toronto is an exactly league-average offense against righties. While he’s unlikely to score in the upper 20s, no pitcher on this slate is projecting for even 18 points on DraftKings.
Getting Brown for $1,300 cheaper and less ownership than Gore feels like a steal today, making him my favorite option for all contest types.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
I referenced the Brewer’s excellent total above, so it’s no surprise they’re projecting as the top stack on today’s short slate. Most of that is driven by the location of this game — Coors Field — which boosts total scoring by 25% on average.
However, the pitching matchup against Austin Gomber ($6,500) certainly plays a part as well. Gomber has a 4.63 ERA but a slightly higher SIERA. Since SIERA is park adjusted, that means his poor results aren’t simply a function of where he plays home games.
The drawback is that the Brewers hit lefties worse than righties, losing more than 20 points of wRC+. Gomber is left-handed, though, of course, and is extremely unlikely to make it all nine innings of this game.
Given the small slate (especially the two-game later slate), Milwaukee will be extremely popular, making them a bit tough for GPPs. Of course, other Brewers stacks are available and could save both ownership and salary by utilizing bottom-of-the-order bats.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Francisco Lindor SS ($4,900) New York Mets at Washington Nationals (Mackenzie Gore)
While I’m using Lindor as the headliner, the real takeaway here is in the value of stacking the Mets. The reason is two-fold. One, by stacking against the slate’s most popular pitcher, you really only need to get one thing right to jump ahead of most of the field. New York getting to Gore means you pass all of the Gore lineups by a decent margin, and by definition, the pitchers you play will be the better options.
The other reason is the Mets’ stats against lefties, which jump out in PlateIQ:
Four of their first five hitters are on the better side of their platoon splits against lefties, with mostly reasonable salaries. The only thing that would make stacking the Mets too expensive is trying to fit Gore — and we obviously aren’t doing that anyway.
Charlie Blackmon OF ($5,000) Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson)
Blackmon isn’t the player he once was, especially in the power department. He has just three home runs through 64 games this season and hasn’t hit more than 16 in a year since 2019. Still, he has a reasonable .257 batting average and what might be a solid matchup.
That’s due to Wilson’s splits against left-handed hitting. Wilson has allowed lefties to hit .378 this year, compared to just .252 against righties. There aren’t many good left handed bats in this Rockies lineup — which is why I’ll be playing Wilson as well — but Blackmon is worth a look in some of your lineups.
