The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($10,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (-131) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Glasnow is a cut above the rest of the field, with a 2-3 point lead in median projection in both the FantasyLabs and The Bat pitcher projections. He comes into the game with a 3.50 ERA, but all of his underlying metrics are below 3.00.
More importantly for DFS, he has the second-highest K% among qualified starters this season, at an elite 32.9%. That gives him tremendous upside but also a bit of wiggle room in case he allows a couple of runs against a tough Phillies lineup.
Of course, he’s also the most expensive pitcher on the slate by a decent margin. Perhaps a touch overpriced based on the matchup and Vegas odds, which have the Dodgers as slight favorites and Philly implied for 3.6 runs.
Combined with his sky-high ownership projection, that makes Glasnow an inflection point for large-field GPPs, though I’ll probably just eat the chalk (and salary) for smaller tournaments and cash games.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
JP Sears ($7,700) Oakland A’s (-179) vs. Chicago White Sox
The bad news for Sears is that Chicago isn’t quite as dreadful against lefties as they are against righties. The good news is that they’re still pretty bad, with an 82 wRC+ as a team that ranks 28th in the majors. Those numbers are misleading anyway since Chicago traded away Eloy Jiminez at the trade deadline. Jiminez had a 112 wRC+ against lefties.
More importantly, Sears has shown he has massive upside. He put up 35 DraftKings points in his last start against a Giants team that ranks top five against lefties. While he’s unlikely to match that number today, it’s still a good sign.
Sears has been fairly inconsistent this season, with a 4.53 ERA overall, but three of his past five starts went for at least 24 DraftKings points. The odds of another one obviously go up based on the matchup. Plus, we’d be thrilled with even 20 points out of him at his salary, making him an intriguing, yet risky, GPP option.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($9,600) Houston Astros (-113) at Texas Rangers
Hunter Brown struggled as a chalky pick in his last outing, leading to an increase in his salary — DraftKings typically sets pricing based on how popular a player was in their last outing. Plenty of DFS players are feeling burned by that start, leading to him having extremely low ownership projections this time around.
Which makes him an interesting high-end pivot. He has a solid 25.3% strikeout rate and a 4.11 ERA, but both of those numbers look worse based on his terrible start to the season. In recent months, he’s outperformed both by a decent amount.
The Rangers are also a bottom-five team by wRC+ against righties, making this a quietly appealing matchup. While Texas is implied for 4.3 runs, it stands to reason that some of that comes against the Astros bullpen. Houston is a slightly heavier favorite on the first five innings moneyline than overall.
Brown isn’t projecting especially well relative to Glasnow, but between the extra $600 in salary and massive ownership discount, he’s a solid pivot for GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
There are high totals in plenty of matchups today, but the Royals stack might be the most appealing. Their team total is 5.5 runs as they host the Red Sox tonight at the fourth-best hitter-friendly park in baseball with 90+ degree weather in the forecast.
All of which should boost offense in this game, especially against Boston’s James Paxton ($7,300). The newly-acquired lefty has a 4.52 ERA this year, with all of his underlying numbers even worse.
The Royals have hit lefties slightly worse as a team this season but have plenty of players who individually are on the strong side of their platoon splits. That makes some cheaper stacks also viable if you need to save the salary to afford pricey pitchers.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mark Canha OF ($3,500) San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
There’s nothing better than fading Patrick Corbin, who’s in the midst of his fourth straight season with an ERA over 5.00 — 5.88, specifically, with an xERA of 5.84. The lefty Corbin is eminently hittable, leading to the Giants’ 5.2-run implied total.
Plenty of Giants hitters do their best work against southpaws, as we can see in PlateIQ:
Canha is the most economical option, though, with his $3,500 salary way underpriced considering his number two spot in their lineup.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,800) Arizona Diamondbacks at Clevland Guardians (Logan Allen
It’s a nice matchup for the D’Backs against Logan Allen ($8,400), who has a 5.67 ERA in the MLB this season and has spent time in the minor leagues trying to get it together.
It’s an especially nice matchup for Ketel Marte. The Arizona leadoff man is hitting .357 with a 1.094 OPS against southpaws, giving him a huge edge over the lefty Allen. He’s tough to afford based on the salary structure on the slate — but I’ll be making it a point to get up to him.
Bryce Harper 1B ($5,700) Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow)
Bryce Harper specifically isn’t the point here, but if you’re fading Glasnow it’s probably worth it to roster some Phillies bats. They’re all slightly overpriced for their likeliest outcome, given the difficult spot against Glasnow. However, rostering against the chalk pitcher you fade is an excellent way to build correlation.
If you aren’t playing Glasnow, you’re banking on him having a disappointing score. For that to happen, somebody on Philly needs to do some damage. Thus, by combining both, you’ll move well ahead of the field if it happens.
