The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Michael King ($10,000) San Diego Padres (-160) vs. Minnesota Twins
The 29-year-old Michal King is in his first year as a full-time starting pitcher but has definitely rewarded the Padres for making the switch. He comes into Monday with a 3.19 ERA and 28.7% strikeout rate, both borderline elite numbers.
The market is certainly viewing him as an ace, giving the Twins just a 3.2-run implied total today despite their solid numbers against right-handed pitching. They rank sixth in the MLB with a 112 wRC+ and a below-average 21.1% strikeout rate.
That limits King’s upside a touch, but he still has the best K prediction in our models. With no true superstar arms on Monday’s slate, that’s more than enough to make him the top option. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling projection today and is a strong choice in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Harrison ($7,900) San Francisco Giants (-241) vs. Chicago White Sox
Thanks to their historic ineptitude, the White Sox now hold the worst wRC+ in baseball against both lefties and righties, with an identical 74 mark against both types of pitchers. That means they’re more than 25% worse than a league-average team offensively.
Which bodes well for Harrison and his 4.14 ERA. That’s not a great mark, of course, but it works out to right around 3.00 against the White Sox, assuming he’s faced league-average competition through his first 21 starts. His 21.9% strikeout rate is fairly average as well, but Chicago’s 24.1% rate is top-10 and should help in that department.
He also has excellent Vegas Data relative to his price, as the heaviest moneyline favorite on the slate. Chicago is tied for the lowest implied total at 3.2 runs, making Harrison a massive value at his salary.
He’s my favorite cash game play on the slate, with some GPP utility as well. Harrison leads the FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal and should be among the slate’s more popular options.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Yusei Kikuchi ($8,500) Houston Astros (-135) vs. Boston Red Sox
Kikuchi profiles as a classic boom or bust option, thanks to having an elevated ERA but also excellent strikeout numbers. To his credit, his 4.49 ERA is well above his underlying numbers, with an xFIP of just 3.33 this season.
Typically, we’d expect ERA to be mostly sticky this deep into a season, but that goes out the window when a player changes teams. Through three starts with the Astros, he’s posted a combined ERA under 3.00. His 27.4% strikeout rate is a big appeal here, though, as his K Prediction trails only King’s for tops on the slate.
The Red Sox have the highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in baseball, with a considerably lower wRC+ as a team. That’s a huge boost to Kikuchi’s prospects today. While he’s not exactly a contrarian option, his ownership is well behind King’s, making him a solid GPP pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
We aren’t getting the massive value on the Royals that we were recently, but they’re still priced reasonably considering their slate-leading 5.4 run implied total today.
They’re taking on the Angels at home — Kauffman Stadium ranks third for overall offense by Park Factor — in a good matchup against Carson Fulmer ($6,800). Fulmer has been mostly a reliever this year but holds a 4.82 ERA as a starter this season (six starts).
Other Royals stacks also make sense here, for example a pivot from Hunter Renfroe to MJ Melendez ($3,400). Fulmer has considerably worse numbers against lefties, so loading up on Royals lefties could be a solid way to build.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mark Vientos 3B ($4,500) New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles (Trevor Rogers)
The Mets have the third-best wRC+ in the MLB against lefties, and it’s easy to see why in PlateIQ:
Their first five hitters all have wOBA marks of at least .365 against lefties and are all considerably better than their marks against righties. Vientos is my favorite value of the bunch, but Mets stacks, in general, are an excellent option today.
Anthony Santander OF ($5,400) Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets (David Peterson)
Baltimore actually ranks just ahead of the Mets in terms of wRC+ against lefties, slotting in at number two as a team with a 120 wRC+. They have a tougher pitching matchup with David Peterson ($7,300), but not one that’s impossible to overcome.
Santander stands out for his power against lefties, with an excellent .297 ISO mark. He’s not exactly a value at his price point, but Baltimore mini stacks should be fairly contrarian and could certainly pay off.
LaMonte Wade 1B ($3,400) San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon)
None of the Giants hitters are popping in the models — but they’re also implied for five runs tonight. That production has to come from somewhere, so it’s worth trying to figure out some San Francisco exposure.
The best value is on Wade, who’s underpriced, considering he’s the No. 2 hitter in the Giants lineup. He’s hitting a solid .274 on the year, with a good chance of converting hits into runs given the Giants team total.
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