The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Blake Snell ($10,300) San Francisco Giants (-245) vs. Washington Nationals
Snell is pretty clearly in a tier of his own on Monday’s slate. He’s projecting solidly ahead of every other pitcher in median and ceiling in the FantasyLabs models, with by far the best Vegas data on the slate.
That’s because Washington is implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs today, while the Giants are the heaviest favorites on the board. Snell also leads the slate in K prediction in our models, which should come as no surprise given his 32% rate last year and 15% swinging strike rate.
While he’s also the most expensive arm on the board, I’d argue he’s actually underpriced, given the separation between Snell and the other pitchers today. His salary should help to mitigate his ownership, but I’ll be locking him in for all contest types and building around him using SimLabs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Berrios ($7,100) Toronto Blue Jays (-120) vs. Seattle Mariners
Depending on your preferred metrics, Berrios is either drastically underpriced or an extremely lucky pitcher who’s long overdue to get shelled.
Since the start of 2023, his ERA is a very strong 3.57. However, his xERA is a brutal 6.79 this season after finishing at 4.51 last year, so there’s a case to be made he’s been more lucky than good. Berrios also hasn’t cleared a 25% strikeout rate since 2021, so his upside is somewhat limited.
Still, it looks like a solid setup tonight against Seattle. Toronto is favored slightly, with the Mariners implied for just four runs, and we need to save salary somewhere. He holds a slate-leading 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, which suggests he’s a bit underpriced, making him a solid option to pair with Snell for cash games.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zac Gallen ($8,200) Arizona Diamondbacks (-180) at Colorado Rockies
I was hoping we’d get more of a discount on Gallen today, given that he’s playing in Coors Field. Still, were this game happening anywhere else, he’d be pricier — his salary was over $9,000 in each of his first two starts in 2024.
Colorado is implied for a solid 4.6 runs, but there’s a fairly large degree of uncertainty there. It doesn’t matter how thin the air is if you can’t put the ball in play, and Gallen has a solid 26% strikeout rate dating back to the start of 2023. He also has a slightly below-average fly ball rate, which further boosts his case.
The biggest argument, though, is the poor Rockies lineup. They have a bottom-five wRC+ as a team and the sixth-highest strikeout rate in this young season.
Given the location of this game, we should get an ownership discount on Gallen to go with his cheap-ish salary, making him an excellent tournament play on all accounts.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Of course, two teams get to play in Coors Field today. One of those, Arizona, has a massive 6.1-run implied total, with a strong matchup against Kyle Freeland ($5,000), who has allowed the second-most hard contact on the slate dating back to last season.
They also don’t have the same “bad at baseball” issue that plagues the home team, with a top-ten offense by most metrics so far this season. Each of their first seven hitters had an above-average wRC mark last year, so it’s no surprise that they’ve performed well to start the year.
Looking to some of those lower-order hitters could be a way to save on salary and/or ownership with Arizona stacks today. Particularly given the platoon splits of some of those hitters against lefties like Freeland (per PlateIQ):
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yandy Diaz 1B ($4,900) Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
If looking to build some more unique Arizona stacks, one option is to pivot away from first baseman Christian Walker. Diaz is an excellent way to do so. He saves a bit of salary and has excellent platoon splits against the lefty Tyler Anderson, with a 1.101 OPS against southpaws last season.
Given the popularity of Diamondbacks stacks — most of which include Walker — we’ll also get an ownership discount on Diaz. As an added bonus, he’s the only first baseman on the board projected to hit first in his team’s lineup, giving him even more value on today’s slate.
Ronald Acuna OF ($6,400) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets (Julio Tehran)
Acuna leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models for median and ceiling projection among all hitters on Monday. Despite that, he’s also projecting for fairly low ownership — at least by his usual standards.
Since he’s almost impossible to fit around Coors Field stacks without scraping the bottom of the pitching barrel, the majority of lineups won’t be able to find the salary to get up to Acuna. This makes him a strong play from a GPP standpoint on Monday.
I don’t need to sell you on his ridiculous numbers last season — Acuna is essentially always worth playing — but the solid matchup and reduced ownership make him stand out even more this time.
Anthony Rendon 3B ($2,900) Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Zach Eflin)
It’s been an awful start to the season for Rendon. He’s hitting .094 through 34 at-bats, with just one extra-base hit. Commitment issues aside, he’s too talented of a player for numbers that bad to hold — which is apparent in his .120 batting average on balls in play.
He’s also too cheap for his leadoff spot for the Angels, who are implied for a reasonable four runs today. I wouldn’t say I’m excited to click Rendon today (or any day), but we have to save salary somewhere, and a $2,900 leadoff hitter is as good of a place as any.
