The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kodai Senga ($9,000) New York Mets (-275) vs. Miami Marlins
As a preface to this entire article, there’s weather concerns in plenty of games on Monday’s slate. I won’t be mentioning each spot individually, but be sure to check the latest report as you build your lineups.
With that said, the Mets/Marlins game is fairly low risk in that regard, making Senga a comfortable play. He has absurdly good Vegas data as a huge moneyline favorite against a team implied for just 2.7 runs. Typically, a pitcher with those numbers would be priced in the five-figure range.
As if that weren’t enough, he also has a career strikeout rate of just under 30%, with a swinging strike rate that suggests he could be even better than that. He could be even better than usual against a bad Marlins team that ranks top ten in strikeouts and bottom ten in wRC+ on the young season.
We’ll likely have to eat plenty of ownership on Senga today, but he’s a strong enough play to justify it. He’s the starting point for my rosters in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hunter Greene ($7,900) Cincinnati Reds (+130) at San Francisco Giants
Given the start to his 2025 campaign, I’m pretty surprised to still see Hunter Greene priced below $8,000. The hard-throwing righty has married the strikeout upside he flashed earlier in his career to an ability to last deeper into games and prevent runs, at least through two 2025 starts.
Across those two games, he’s racked up 16 strikeouts over 12 innings while surrendering just three earned runs. The first of those games came against these Giants, except that game was in Cincinnati. Greene finished at 20.85 DraftKings points.
He should have a longer leash in terms of pitch count in his rematch vs. the Giants, and this time, the game is in San Francisco. That means moving from the MLB’s third-best hitters park to the 23rd-ranked stadium in terms of Park Factor. Coupled with weather conditions that limit scoring, this is a huge upgrade for Greene’s outlook.
We’re not even projecting him for especially high ownership, so I’m all over Greene tonight in both cash games and GPPs. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-166) vs. Houston Astros
Logan Gilbert is a somewhat obvious “pay up to be contrarian” pivot off of Senga for large-field GPPs. He’s projecting similarly (but slightly worse) but costs $500 more, which should keep his ownership slightly lower.
That isn’t to say Gilbert is a bad play in a vacuum. The Astros are implied for just 3.2 runs, and Gilbert has plenty of strikeout upside. Over the past two seasons, he has a 28% strikeout rate and the highest swinging strike rate on the slate, so there’s a solid case that our 6.15 K Prediction is on the low side.
Still, it’s hard to make the case for him over Senga if ownership isn’t an issue, particularly with the extra $500 in salary. For that reason, I’m keeping my exposure to Gilbert in large-field GPPs while building around Senga and Greene in smaller contests.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
We don’t see the Padres make this section often, but they’re an extremely strong pick on Monday’s slate.
One of the most important factors is that this game doesn’t have much PPD risk, nor does it have weather that meaningfully suppresses offense. Due to that (among other reasons), the Padres’ 4.7-run implied total leads the slate on Monday.
“Other reasons” include the matchup against Luis Severino ($7,300), who has a 3.75 ERA on the season but an xERA of more than six, with other underlying metrics also suggesting he’s been lucky.
On top of that, the stack is cheap enough that you can afford to roster higher-end pitchers and/or an expensive one-off hitter, making them a solid choice in all regards.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kyle Higashioka ($2,600) Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
This game is probably the likeliest on the board to get cancelled, so make sure to have a backup plan if rostering anyone from it.
With that said, this is a pretty off-the-board play — but check out the Rangers’ backstop’s numbers against lefties in PlateIQ:
An ISO over .300 is borderline elite and translated into a .506 slugging percentage against southpaws last year. He’s a boom-or-bust option with a nonexistent floor, but he’s an exciting GPP salary-saver.
Bobby Witt SS ($5,900) Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (Simeon Woods Richardson)
One of the reasons I even noticed Higashioka was due to my quest to find the salary to afford Witt. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection amongst all hitters and has a great matchup against the Twins’ Simeon Woods Richardson ($6,300).
Witt has a rare blend of power and speed that gives him tons of upside, and his Royals are second on the slate with a 4.5-run implied total. I like pairing Witt with Jonathan India ($4,300) for a mini-stack at the top of the KC lineup.
Matt Walner OF ($3,900) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Michael Lorenzen)
The Twins are the other team I’m looking at for mini-stacks today, largely thanks to the matchup with Lorenzen. The journeyman had a career year last year with a 3.31 ERA, but all of his ERA indicators hovered around the 5.00 mark. That’s about where his career ERA sits, as does his 2025 mark after one start.
I don’t have particularly strong feelings about Walner specifically, but he’s a $3,900 leadoff hitter for a team with a solid total and a great matchup. That’s enough for me, either as a one-off or as part of a Twins stack.
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Pictured: Kodai Senga
Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
