The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Triston McKenzie ($9,000) Cleveland Guardians (-112) at Seattle Mariners
Monday’s main slate lacks any true ace starting pitchers. McKenzie is the only arm on the slate to even reach $9,000 in salary — and just barely.
Still, he looked to be on track to be a true ace prior to his injury-shortened 2023 campaign. In his last healthy season of 2022, he finished with a 2.96 ERA and 25.6% strikeout rate across 190 innings, making 30 starts. Last year didn’t go quite as well, but he made just four appearances.
McKenzie would project much better if not for the matchup, a moderately difficult one in Seattle. The Mariners are implied for a solid 4.1 runs today, with Cleveland as slight favorites. Still, McKenzie checks in with the second-best median and ceiling projection in the Labs models — trailing only our value pick, which we’ll get to shortly.
There are better options for cash games from a Pts/Sal projection, but McKenzie’s pre-injury numbers are intriguing and make him an interesting upside play for GPPs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Sean Manaea ($7,800) New York Mets (-134) vs. Detroit Tigers
Manaea is a near-lock today. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems in median and ceiling while being priced at just $7,800. Accordingly, that also makes him the best Pts/Sal play on the board.
The 32-year-old has a somewhat down year last season with a 4.44 ERA, but that seems to be partially due to bad luck. Most of his ERA indicators were slightly under 4.00, and he still missed a fair number of bats. His 25.7% strikeout rate is solid, as was his 11.1% swinging strike rate.
He draws a fairly winnable matchup with the Tigers. Detroit is 3-0 but averaging less than four runs per game. Each of their wins has been by exactly one run, and they’re certainly due for some regression. Their 3.6-run implied total is the lowest on the slate, which is another reason to look to Manaea.
He’ll almost certainly be the most heavily owned arm on the slate, but for good reason. He’s an excellent play in all contest types, and we can get contrarian elsewhere.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
James Paxton ($8,600) Los Angeles Dodgers (-219) vs. San Francisco Giants
Paxton topped 20 innings pitched for the first time since 2019 last season, ending up with a solid return campaign. He profiles similarly to McKenzie, with an elevated 4.50 ERA partially due to some bad luck (he had a 3.77 xERA) but solid strikeout upside.
At 35, he’s unlikely to regain his 2017-2019 form, where he posted three straight years of 28% or higher strikeout rates. However, his 12.7% swinging strike rate last season was very strong, and suggests some positive regression on his 24.7% strikeout rate.
Even projecting a further age-related decline to his abilities, those are still solid numbers. He’s on par with McKenzie, but $400 cheaper and with a softer matchup. The Giants’ 3.8-run implied total is ahead of only the Tigers, and the Dodgers moneyline is the best on the board.
Keep an eye on ownership as we approach lock. We currently have Paxton coming in as less popular than McKenzie, which would make him a much stronger GPP play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
While not exactly cheap, Houston is slightly more affordable than similar stacks from the other teams on the slate implied for five runs, the Dodgers and Yankees. With all three teams featuring similar implied totals, the Astros should be the sweet spot, depending on ownership.
They have a strong on-paper matchup with the Blue Jays Bowden Francis ($7,000). Francis spent 2023 as a reliever but is making the jump to the Blue Jays rotation this season. While he had strong numbers out of the bullpen, it’s likely that the transition to regular starter won’t help his stats this year.
Nor will this matchup against Houston. All five Astros in this stack had a wRC+ of at least 125 last season, making it one of the strongest lineups in baseball. They’re in an excellent place to start your lineup builds today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Glebyer Torres 2B ($4,700) New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
If going away from Astros stacks, the Yankees are another strong option. They’re the only visiting team implied for over five runs — and remember, away offenses are more valuable with a guaranteed ninth inning of at bats.
The entire Yankee lineup is solid, but Torres has a strong mix of projection and affordability. Unfortunately, he’s hard to pair with Astros stacks, however. If looking for a one-off to play alongside Houston, my favorite Yankee hitter is first baseman Anthony Rizzo ($4,200).
They’re tied for the team lead among the fantasy-relevant Yankees hitters, and both are solid options depending on your lineup construction.
Max Muncy 3B ($4,500) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (Keaton Winn)
The Dodgers have the highest implied total on the slate, making them an excellent — yet pricey — team to target. The obvious answers lie at the top of their lineup, with Mookie Betts ($6,500) and Shohei Ohtani ($6,300) strong plays on a daily basis.
Their massive salaries make it tough to fit them in most lineups, though. I turned to PlateIQ to hunt for some cheaper paths toward Dodgers exposure:
Which is how I arrived at Muncy. His numbers compare reasonably well to Betts, yet at $2,000 less in salary. Additionally, PlateIQ revealed that the Giants starter Keaton Winn allowed a wOBA 60 points higher to lefties than righties last season. Build Dodgers stacks around left-handed hitters if looking to stack the team or target Muncy as a solid one-off play.
Jake Rogers C ($3,400) Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
With Manaea standing out as clearly the best pitching play on the board, the Tigers make for an interesting team from a game-theory perspective. Lineups that don’t use Manaea would be well served to get some exposure to Detroit — if nobody from the Tigers performs well, you’re already losing due to Manaea vaulting those lineups ahead of you.
To that end, my preferred Tiger is Rogers. Playing at catcher, he’s easy to fit around nearly any team stack you choose. He’s coming off a 21-homer 2023 campaign on just 107 games played and has already gone yard this season. He’s also a lefty specialist, with a 128 wRC+ against southpaws last season compared to just 84 against righties.
Lineups without Manaea should probably include at least a couple of Detroit hitters, but I’d start my search with Rogers.
