The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Major League Baseball sends May out with a bang this Friday! Friday night’s slate includes 26 of the 30 MLB teams, with only the Reds, Cubs, Cardinals, and Phillies playing early games and not included. With 13 games of matchups to choose from, there are a host of great plays to consider as you assemble your Friday night squad and start your fantasy baseball weekend off right.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tanner Houck ($9,600) Boston Red Sox (-163) vs. Detroit Tigers
Houck has the second-highest median and ceiling projections using both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction of the 26 probable starting pitchers, and he is in a solid home matchup against the Tigers.
The 27-year-old righty has been excellent for the Red Sox this season, going only 4-5 in 11 starts but deserving more wins based on his sterling 1.90 ERA and 2.12 FIP. He has 69 strikeouts in 71 innings and has averaged 22.2 DraftKings points per start even without the victories coming his way.
In three straight starts, Houck has over 19 DraftKings points while allowing just two earned runs across 18 2/3 innings with 19 strikeouts over that span. He has only allowed one home run all season and has only allowed more than three earned runs in one of his 11 starts. He’s low risk but also brings a high ceiling, which he showed with a complete game shutout that earned him over 45 DraftKings points against the Guardians in April.
On Friday, he faces the Tigers, who have the eighth-highest K% in the MLB and goes head-to-head with Kenta Maeda. Even if his win luck doesn’t come around, he has been effective enough to be a top option on this slate and should be able to put together another strong outing at home against Detroit.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Marcus Stroman ($8,400) New York Yankees (-136) at San Francisco Giants
Stroman has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections. He comes into this matchup against the Giants at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park with good momentum and has the backing of one of the hottest lineups in baseball as the Yankees continue their West Coast trip.
In his last five starts, Stroman has allowed zero or one earned run four times, producing over 18 DraftKings points in each of his last three outings. The 33-year-old is 4-2 in his 11 starts this season, with a 2.76 ERA and 4.54 FIP. His strikeout rate hasn’t been great at 7.69 but is consistent with what he has posted the last few seasons. He has been especially good on the road, posting a 1.98 ERA and 4.58 FIP in his 27 1/3 innings away from Yankee Stadium. The veteran has made four career starts at Oracle, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings.
The Giants offense has been much better this season than last year, and they rank in the middle of the league in most categories. They do have the fifth-worst ISO and eighth-fewest homers, though, so they are a slightly favorable matchup, especially in their pitcher-friendly park.
Stroman should be in a good spot to keep rolling, as the Yankees take on Jordan Hicks in the first game of their series by the Bay.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
JP Sears ($5,900) Oakland Athletics (+180) at Atlanta Braves
For GPP contests, you may want to stack a bunch of big bats and go with a bargain starting pitcher. On this slate, Sears is the best bargain play by a wide margin despite a matchup that makes him very high risk.
Sears doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate (5.97 K/9) this season but has had some very strong starts that show he has a high ceiling. He has allowed zero or one earned run in six of his last nine starts, earning over 25 DraftKings points in three of those contests. Overall, he has a 3.88 ERA and 4.51 FIP and earned his fourth win of the year by holding the Astros to just two hits and one unearned run in six innings on his way to 17.1 DraftKings points in his last outing.
On Friday’s monster slate, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections, although THE BAT X points to Jose Soriano and Tobias Myers as plays with more value.
The risk factor with Sears is obvious. He’s facing the Braves’ excellent offense. However, Atlanta has been in a bit of a funk lately even before the season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna. They only scored a total of nine runs while losing three of four games to the Nats and have been held under five runs in eight of their last 11 games. They have the potential to break out in a big way, which is why Sears is best left for GPP play, but they haven’t been a must-avoid matchup recently.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Especially with the Braves in a bit of a team-wide slump, the Dodgers stand out as the top stack, as they host the Rockies. They’ll take on Dakota Hudson on Friday night, who has a 5.54 ERA and 5.15 FIP in his 10 starts this season, allowing five homers with a 1.50 WHIP. Hudson has been especially mashable by lefties, who have a .362 wOBA against him this season.
As usual, Shohei Ohtani is a great spot to start a Dodgers stack. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the hitters on Saturday’s slate. Ohtani will be sad to see May end after hitting .322 (29-for-90) with seven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a .430 wOBA. He hasn’t been quite as aggressive on the bases lately since he’s dealing with a bruised hamstring, but he’s still crushing it at the plate and had 21 DraftKings points with a home run on Wednesday.
Freddie Freeman is another lefty to consider, and he has gone 3-for-8 against Hudson in their past meetings. Gavin Lux is the only Dodger who has homered against Hudson and can also make sense as a cheap play. In addition to all those lefties, Mookie Betts is always a strong option at the top of the lineup, and Andy Pages is a more affordable way to get a piece of the Dodgers stack with his salary under $4,000.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Miguel Andujar ($3,000) Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves (Reynaldo Lopez)
Andujar’s once-promising career has been derailed by injuries and struggles at the plate, but he seems to be regaining his form. He’s currently in a key spot in the Athletics lineup and has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders in the aggregated projections.
Although it feels like Andujar has been around forever, he’s just 29, and he was only 23 when he hit 27 homers in 149 games for the Yankees in 2018. He signed with the A’s this offseason and looked great in spring training, hitting .357 with five homers and a .467 wOBA in 14 games. Andujar missed the start of the season, though, after needing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. He just came back for his season debut on Friday. He went 3-for-4 in his return and has gone 7-for-20 (.350) with a double, a home run, and a .372 wOBA in his five games while averaging an impressive 10.0 DraftKings points per game.
Andujar is an amazing value at only $3,000 as a cleanup hitter with plenty of power potential. If he can stay healthy and keep producing, his salary will likely be on the rise, so take advantage of his reduced rate while you can.
SS J.P. Crawford ($2,900) Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)
The Mariners got three wins in their four-game set against the Astros to start the week and continue their divisional homestand by welcoming in the Angels. Crawford is back atop their batting order on a regular basis against righties and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops on Friday’s slate.
Crawford stole his first base of the season on Thursday while going 0-for-2 with a pair of walks. He has gone 9-for-37 (.231) in his 10 starts since coming off the IL, with five extra-base hits, five walks, five runs scored, one home run, and 6.9 DraftKings points per game.
His salary under $3,000 makes him a great value play, especially with the rest of the M’s order heating up behind him as you can see in our PlateIQ tool:
C Keibert Ruiz ($2,700) Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians (Tanner Bibee)
Ruiz has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at catcher using the blended projections and has been playing very well lately for the Nats. He is a good way to save salary at catcher but still get good upside without paying a premium price.
On the season, Ruiz is hitting just .208 with a .247 wOBA, which is why his salary is so low. He has been heating up lately, though, with multi-hit performances in five of his last seven games while going 10-for-22 (.455) with two doubles, a home run, five RBI, and even a stolen base.
The 25-year-old backstop has averaged 9.7 DraftKings points during those seven games and 8.2 DraftKings points per game over his last 10. He seems to have snapped out of his early-season slump and usually hits in the middle of the Washington batting order, putting him in a good spot for run production for the Nats, who have won six of their last eight and are within three games of .500 for the season.
