The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
On Friday night, the main DFS fantasy baseball slate gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET and includes the nine games scheduled for under the lights. The Dodgers and Braves clash in a matchup of two of the top teams in the National League, and there are two divisional matchups, as the Padres visit Arizona and the Astros host the Mariners.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Sonny Gray ($10,100) St. Louis Cardinals (-272) vs. Chicago White Sox
Gray is the most expensive starting pitcher on the board this Friday, but he is still worth considering since he has so many positive indicators coming into this beautiful home matchup against the White Sox. Gray has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all probable starters using THE BAT X projections, and he matches the second-most Pro Trends on the slate.
After getting a late start to his first season in St. Louis, Gray has looked excellent with 32 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings. He has gone 3-1 in his four starts with an outstanding 1.16 ERA and 1.47 FIP. He has earned over 22 DraftKings points in every start this season and over 29 DraftKings points in each of his last two. The veteran has held opponents to a .212 average and produced 12.34 K/9.
In Friday’s matchup, the White Sox have the lowest implied run total on the board by a significant margin at just 2.9 runs. They have the second-worst team batting average this season at just .212 and the lowest team wOBA at .273. They were just swept by the Twins and are a woeful 6-25 this season, so there’s a good chance for a win and a dominant outing from Gray on Saturday. If he continues to deliver in his current form, he’ll be a great pay-up play Friday night.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
J.P. Sears ($6,100) Oakland Athletics (-140) vs. Miami Marlins
On the other end of the salary structure, Sears is a solid way to save some salary and balance out spending up on Gray. Of the 18 starting pitchers scheduled for Friday night, Sears has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections.
Sears has been a key to the A’s getting out to a stronger start than expected. He has gone 1-2 in six starts with a 4.64 ERA and 4.83 FIP, but those overall numbers mask his production in several outings. He began the season with two bad outings but then found a great groove, producing over 25 DraftKings points in two of his next three starts. His most recent outing was mixed since his strikeout total remained high and he pitched into the seventh, but the powerful Orioles lineup reached him for three home runs and seven runs.
Over his last four starts, the 28-year-old lefty has racked up 22 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings and pitched at least five full innings in each start. That kind of production gives him plenty of upside against the Marlins. Miami has the second-worst team wOBA in the MLB behind only the White Sox, and they have only a 63 wRC+ against lefties, with a .213 team batting average in that split.
At just over $6,000, Sears doesn’t have to dominate to return value, although he definitely can reach 20+ DraftKings points if he’s at his best. Since the Athletics are also uncharacteristically favored by a significant margin, there’s also a good shot to pick up a win at this bargain price.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tanner Houck ($8,100) Boston Red Sox (-111) at Minnesota Twins
The Red Sox roll into the Twin Cities to start a weekend series this Friday, and they’ll give the ball to Houck, who has shown a very high ceiling this season. As a mid-range play in a tough road matchup, there are some risk factors, but his strikeout upside makes him a strong option for GPPs. He has the highest ceiling projections of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the third highest in THE BAT X projections.
Houck has gone 3-2 in his six starts this season with a 1.60 ERA and 1.99 FIP. He has 41 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings and turned in five quality starts in his six outings. He had one bad game against the Angels, allowing seven runs (four earned) in 5 2/3 innings, but he bounced back from that with an absolute gem against the Guardians, spinning a complete game shutout with nine strikeouts, no walks, and just three hits. That start earned Houck 45.5 DraftKings points, and he again showed off his high ceiling with 28 DraftKings points in his most recent start that came last Sunday against the Cubs.
On Friday, he’ll face the Twins, who have won 10 straight games coming into this contest. However, all 10 of those games were against the White Sox and Angels, so this should be a big step up in competition level. Minnesota does rank in the top 10 in the MLB in K%, so the strikeout potential should be there for Houck.
Most of Houck’s best starts have come at home, but his strikeout potential when he’s locked in gives him a high enough ceiling to be a strong mid-range target on Friday’s slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves and Dodgers usually bring us the top stacks on the slate, and this Friday is no exception as they go head-to-head in Los Angeles. The Braves have a narrow advantage as a top stack since they’re in a slightly more favorable matchup. Atlanta will face Dodgers’ righty Gavin Stone, who has allowed 13 runs (nine earned) in 25 innings this season. Stone has a 4.68 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season, and he has been hit especially hard by lefties, who are hitting .341 against him this season with a .415 wOBA.
Since lefties have thrived against Stone, Matt Olson is a key part of this stack along with switch hitter Ozzie Albies. Albies has been red hot since returning from the IL, hitting in six straight and going 9-for-27 (.333). He has hit safely in 14 straight games dating back to before the injury, going 21-for-58 (.362) with a .409 wOBA during that run.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has the highest median and ceiling projections of all hitters in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He has just one home run and a .070 ISO on the season, but he has compensated for it to some degree with 13 stolen bases. He has been trending in the right direction over the last few games, though, posting an 80% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate in his last five games.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Jake McCarthy ($3,700) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (Dylan Cease)
The Diamondbacks are giving McCarthy another shot at their lead-off spot, and the speedy lefty has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders in the blended projections.
McCarthy is hitting .284 on the year with three stolen bases and a .312 wOBA. He has been heating up over the past few weeks, going 13-for-41 (.317) over his last 13 games, including all three of his stolen bases, a double, and a triple.
If McCarthy can get on base from the lead-off spot against righties, he brings a very high ceiling ahead of the DBacks’ lineup. Getting him under $4,000 is a good place to start building your outfield this Friday.
3B/OF Tyler Nevin ($2,600) Oakland Athletics vs. Miami Marlins (Ryan Weathers)
The Athletics lineup isn’t a regularly recurring part of this post, but on Friday, their batters bring good upside along with Sears against the Marlins. Miami has had a rash of injuries to their starting rotation, and Ryan Weathers ($6,000) has been pressed into regular work. In his six starts, he has a 4.55 ERA and 5.26 FIP while giving up a 1.48 WHIP that indicates teams have had plenty of chances to score even more runs against him.
If you’re shopping for a bat in Oakland against Weathers, Tyler Nevin is a great place to start. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in the aggregated projections, and can slot into your lineup at 3B or in the outfield.
Nevin has been excellent this season, hitting .325 with four home runs and a .385 wOBA. He has hit safely in nine straight games and locked himself in as the No. 2 hitter in the batting order. Over those nine games, he went 14-for-36 (.389) with all four of those home runs and a .487 wOBA over that stretch. Three of his four homers have come off of lefties like Weathers, whom he has a .466 wOBA against on the season.
The A’s bring some good value across the board against the lefty, so let’s take a rare look at the A’s lineup in our PlateIQ tool:
2B Nicky Lopez ($2,100) Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals (Sonny Gray)
While the White Sox haven’t been extremely productive as a whole offense, Lopez still offers good upside at this bargain rate. He usually hits lead off against righties like Gray, giving him a high ceiling at barely over the minimum salary.
Lopez has hit safely in seven of his last nine games, all from the lead-off spot. He’s hitting 9-for-36 (.250) with a double, four runs scored, and a stolen base. He gets extra at-bats from the top of the order and has been making good contact.
While he doesn’t bring much power potential, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 2B and is a very solid punt play with upside, even against Gray. Gray has given up a higher batting average to lefties this season and last season, so Lopez is a good way to pay all the way down at one spot to spend up in other spots.
