The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Major League Baseball has a great Friday night schedule set to start this weekend with 11 games getting underway at 7:10 p.m. ET or later on the main slate on DraftKings. The Phillies are at Coors Field against the Rockies, and Juan Soto and the Yankees are in San Diego to face the Padres in a couple of the most interesting matchups along with two divisional games, including the Cubs and Cardinals renewing their rivalry for the first time this season.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Justin Verlander ($8,600) Houston Astros (-170) at Oakland Athletics
This Friday in the FantasyLabs projections, Verlander has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections along with the best Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers. In THE BAT X projections, he has the highest median projection and the highest Projected Plus/Minus. He only has the sixth-highest salary, so he brings great value to go with his elite raw projections.
The 41-year-old veteran got a late start to the season and has gone 2-2 in four starts with a 3.97 ERA but a 5.23 FIP due to just 26 strikeouts in 34 innings. His low strikeout rate is a bit concerning, but he did have eight strikeouts in seven innings just two starts ago against the Tigers in Detroit. By earning 32.8 DraftKings points in that start, he showed he brings a very high ceiling despite his lower strikeout rate.
In his last start, the Brewers reached him for four runs on four hits, handing him a loss last Saturday, but he started that outing strong with four shutout innings before things unraveled in the fifth thanks to a William Contreras three-run blast. He is in a much more pitcher-friendly spot this time around the rotation and should be ready to bounce back.
Verlander takes on the A’s in Oakland, and despite some improvements, the A’s rank in the bottom 10 in the MLB in runs scored and rank second in K%. Verlander has the highest strikeout prediction on Friday’s slate in this great matchup. The added punch-out potential makes Verlander a solid stud to build around, and the fact that he comes under $9,000 opens up plenty of possibilities elsewhere in your lineup.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Christian Scott ($7,900) New York Mets (-139) vs. San Francisco Giants
Scott has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the sixth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. Scott will take the mound for the Mets who are coming home after being swept in Cleveland and winning just two of their last 10 games.
In his MLB debut in early May, Scott impressed with 21.4 DraftKings points against the Rays. He held Tampa Bay to one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings with six strikeouts. He had a career-high eight strikeouts in his next start but lost at home to the Braves while still earning 18.7 DraftKings points. In his most recent start, though, the 24-year-old prospect was knocked around by the Marlins. He’ll be looking to bounce back and secure his spot in the rotation with a stronger showing Friday. He’s now 0-2 on the year but has a 3.56 FIP and 9.18 K/9.
Scott will take on the Giants, who have been hitting the ball better lately but still rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories. Scott’s upside makes him a strong mid-range value as he looks for his first career MLB win.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cristopher Sanchez ($7,200) Philadelphia Phillies (-205) at Colorado Rockies
We’ll talk about how good the Phillies’ offense has been later in this post, and Sanchez has been a solid enough No. 5 starter for the team this season that I’m willing to take a shot on him even though he’s pitching at Coors Field. The Phillies are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate this Friday, so if Sanchez can avoid getting knocked around in the rarefied air of Coors Field, he should have enough backing to get a win.
Of Friday’s pitchers, Sanchez has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections and the fifth-highest in THE BAT X projections. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of the options under $8,000 in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in that price range in THE BAT X.
Sanchez has turned in four quality starts in his nine outings, going 2-3 with a 3.31 ERA and an impressive 2.59 FIP. He has 47 strikeouts in 49 innings and is coming off eight strikeouts in his last start against the Nationals when he posted 23 DraftKings points. He has over 19 DraftKings points in five starts this year, with a high-point of 31.3 DraftKings points that came in his earlier start this year against the Rockies, when he fanned a season-high 10. That successful start came at home, though, and this time around, he’ll have to deal with the altitude and hitter-friendly Park Factor.
While he does have very good potential, pitching at Coors makes him a high-risk, high-reward option since the game could turn into a slugfest.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies are the heaviest favorites on the slate and have the highest implied run total. They have the best record in the MLB at 37-14 and have overtaken the Dodgers in many key offensive categories. They lead the MLB in runs scored while ranking second in team batting average, third in team wOBA, and second in Hard%, per Baseball Info Solutions. On Friday, they’ll get the added boost of playing at Coors Field and taking on lefty Ty Blach. Blach has a 5.14 ERA and has let righties mash him for a .421 wOBA in his 21 innings.
While Blach is in the game, the Phillies righties like Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos will have a great matchup, but he usually only lasts a few innings. The lefties like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper should have plenty of time to produce after he departs.
Harper has the third-highest ceiling projection of all hitters using the aggregated projections discussed below, with Schwarber also making it into the top five. Bohm has been hot lately, although his eight-game hitting streak ended Thursday. During that run, he went 11-for-33 (.333) with five doubles, a homer and a .387 wOBA. The Phillies are a great stack, but they are also expensive, so I’ll focus on bargains in other hitter picks below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela ($3,000) Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson)
Rafaela is still hitting only .198 in his rookie year, but he always brings a high fantasy ceiling due to his elite skill set. He hasn’t been the most consistent option this season but has been picking things up lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight games coming into this favorable matchup at home against Wilson. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of shortstops on Friday’s slate and also ranks in the top 15 in Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield.
So far this month, Rafaela has hit .215 with three home runs, two stolen bases, and a .272 wOBA. He has scored five runs over Boston’s last four games and produced at least seven DraftKings points in each of those games.
The Red Sox already gave him a big contract and are letting him figure things out at the MLB level. He has shown he can contribute in multiple ways and seems to be trending the right way. At just $3,000, he’s a good option to have in your player pool, especially since he fits at either OF or SS. The Red Sox offer very good value overall in this matchup, as you can see in our PlateIQ tool:
2B Gavin Lux ($3,000) Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcroft)
Lux has regularly had the advantage of hitting after one of the best top halves of any lineup in the Majors, and he has been delivering on his opportunities over the last few weeks. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 2B on Friday and is another solid infield option at just $3,000.
For the season, his batting average is still only .212, but he has collected multiple hits in each of his last two games and is 11-for-39 (.282) over his last 10 games with two doubles, two triples, five RBI, and an average of 5.9 DraftKings points per game.
He usually takes a seat against lefties, but against righty Graham Ashcraft, he is expected to be in the lineup batting sixth. Ashcraft has let lefties hit .302 against him this season with a .370 wOBA and has an ugly 7.47 home ERA. Lux is an affordable way to get some exposure to the potent L.A. lineup whether you build around a full Dodgers stack or go with the Phillies instead.
OF Dylan Carlson ($2,100) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
Carlson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on this slate since he comes at such a rock-bottom price at barely over the minimum salary. Going with him in the outfield enables a hard Phillies stack to work and can even let you add in strong starting pitching as well.
Since returning from the IL, Carlson has struggled to find his rhythm for the Cards. He is hitting a woeful .103 on the season and has seemingly lost his everyday role. He still usually starts in RF against left-handed pitchers like Imanaga, though, and he still does have the potential to produce good numbers. All three of his hits this season have come in his last five games, and he has also scored three runs and walked twice during that span.
He had five homers in 76 games last year for the Cardinals and also homered in his rehab sting in Triple-A earlier this year. In his career, he is a .298 hitter against lefties with 10 homers and a .359 wOBA. His short-term form makes him high-risk, but as a punt play, he brings solid upside against southpaws at just over the minimum salary.
