MLB

MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Friday, May 17)

By Zach Thompson @ZT_Sports
May 17, 2024

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

On Friday night, Major League Baseball delivers an awesome 13-game slate to get the fantasy baseball weekend off to a great start. There are five divisional matchups, three inter-league games, and numerous fascinating story lines to follow. Check out some of my top plays below.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Cole Ragans ($9,200) Kansas City Royals (-202) vs. Oakland Athletics

There are some awesome starting pitching options across the board on Friday night, but Ragans rises to the top. He has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections. The 26-year-old lefty has the highest strikeout forecast of all the scheduled starters on the slate and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections.

In his first full season with the Royals, Ragans is only 2-3 in his nine starts with a 4.22 ERA, 2.63 FIP, and 10.47 K/9. Those numbers rose after he was knocked around by the Angels last Saturday, giving up seven runs in 6 1/3 innings. However, he was on a nice roll before that, with over 20 DraftKings points in six of eight outings.

Ragans will look to return to form in this matchup against the Athletics. Oakland has the fourth-highest K% in the MLB this season and the sixth-highest against lefties. They also have the sixth-worst batting average in the majors against southpaws, hitting just .215 as a team. They do have a few lefty specialists, but Ragans should be able to post enough strikeouts to be a solid stud play in this matchup.

In each of his last two home starts, Ragans has posted over 20 DraftKings points with strong starts against the Brewers and Blue Jays. Against the A’s, he has a high ceiling in this matchup and is a great place to start your lineups this Friday night. He’s only the fourth-most expensive play as well, so he leaves you salary to play with in other places.

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Chris Bassitt ($7,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-179) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Bassitt has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on the slate in the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He and the Blue Jays start their series with the visiting Rays on Friday night, and Bassitt is a great value play at just over $7,000.

In his last start, Bassitt picked up his third win of the season by holding the high-powered Phillies offense to just two runs on three hits in 6 1/3 innings with six strikeouts while totaling 23.3 DraftKings points. He has over 22 DraftKings points in three of his last six starts with over 10 DraftKings points in five of those contests, showing he has a high floor to go with his high ceiling. His only non-productive start during that stretch was against the Dodgers.

Bassitt’s ERA is an unimpressive 5.06 in his eight starts this season, but most of that damage came early in the season and against the Dodgers. He has an 8.44 K/9 rate which is actually up from the last two seasons, and he has 21 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings at home this season.

The Rays just took two of their three games in Boston but still have been underwhelming so far this season. They are hitting .242 as a team and have a 24.2% K%, which ranks them No. 7 in the MLB. On the road, their K% ticks up to 25.9% and they have just a .098 road ISO, which is the lowest of any team in the MLB.

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MLB DFS GPP Pick

Andrew Heaney ($6,600) Texas Rangers (-116) vs. Los Angeles Angels

The Rangers have had to deal with multiple injuries to their starting rotation this season, but Heaney has been one of their steadiest producers. He is 0-4 in his eight starts, but his performance has been much better than that record indicates. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate in THE BAT X projections and the eighth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.

The 32-year-old veteran has a 4.39 ERA and 3.99 FIP across 41 innings this season with 39 strikeouts. While he continues to search for his first victory of the season, he has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his eight outings, including each of his last three.

Heaney has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight starts and earned over 16 DKFP in each of his last four outings. He posted a season-high eight strikeouts in just eight innings last Saturday at Coors Field. He held the Rockies to two runs on eight hits with those eight strikeouts to earn 18.5 DraftKings points despite the hitter-friendly environment.

He’ll be in a better spot at home Friday night against his former team, the Angels, who are just 4-8 in their last 12 games. Heaney has shown a very high ceiling when he gets in the groove but has also been inconsistent. That “boom-or-bust” production works well in GPP contests where he’s available at a low ownership projection and brings good leverage.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers have become a regular in the top stack spot since they’ve gotten off to such a great start to the season. The top part of their lineup has been a force to be reckoned with, and their top five hitters are in the top stack Friday against Frankie Montas and the Reds. Montas has a 4.20 ERA and 4.65 FIP in his 30 innings this season with four home runs allowed. Three of those homers have been hit by left-handed hitters who have a .355 wOBA against him.

Since lefties thrive against Montas, Shohei Ohtani is again a great place to start your stacks. In the aggregated projections, he has the second-highest median projection and the third-highest ceiling projection. He already has a dozen homers and is hitting .360 with a .468 wOBA on the season. He went 0-for-2 on Thursday in the series opener but picked up his 11th stolen base of the season. Even after that hitless game, he is hitting .415 over his last 14 games, with five homers, six stolen bases, and a .527 wOBA during that span.

From the left side, Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman are two more solid parts of the stack, and Mookie Betts always brings an extremely high ceiling and floor with both power and speed. If you need bargain pieces in the stack, you can even mix in Gavin Lux or James Outman.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

OF Aaron Judge ($6,000) New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger)

Judge has the second-highest ceiling projection of all hitters on Friday night’s slate, as he and the Yankees come home to face Mike Clevinger and the White Sox. Judge is 4-for-11 with a home run against Clevinger in his career and comes into this matchup scalding hot.

Over his last 11 games, Judge went 18-for-39 (.462) with nine doubles, five home runs, and a crazy .663 wOBA. He has a remarkable 75.0% hard-hit rate during that span and also has 11 barrels in those 11 games, per Statcast. He and Shohei rank as No. 1 and No. 2 for the most barrels in all of baseball this season, and both have been extremely productive lately.

Judge should be in a great spot to keep smashing, so include him in your lineup as a big bat to build around and use the two bargains below to help afford to pay up for his elite power.

OF J.D. Martinez ($3,300) New York Mets at Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)

Veteran J.D. Martinez is very affordable after joining the Mets late and not getting to the majors until late April. He ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield on this slate and comes into this matchup against a lefty with strong splits and some good momentum.

In his 19 games, Martinez is hitting .292 overall with two homers and a .348 wOBA. Much of that production has come against lefties, whom he is hitting .385 against in a small sample size with two doubles and a .457 wOBA. Martinez has also been surging a bit lately, going 10-for-32 (.313) with both of his home runs this season coming in his last eight games. Over those eight games, he has averaged 9.0 DKFP per game.

Here’s how the rest of the Mets lineup stacks up against the lefty Luzardo using our PlateIQ tool:

3B/SS Zach McKinstry ($2,500) Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)

The Tigers have several strong value targets to consider in their matchup with Nelson on Friday night. Nelson is 2-2 on the season with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. He gave up 18 hits in 9 2/3 innings over his last two starts and served up two home runs as well, both to left-handed hitters.

McKinstry has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both 3B and SS on this slate. He is only hitting .213 on the season but has a couple of stolen bases, a double, a triple, and a .268 wOBA. He is projected to hit seventh in the Tigers lineup and makes sense as a punt play with upside in either spot on the left side of the infield. In two of his last three starts, he has at least 9.0 DKFP.

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.