The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
The first Friday night of the MLB regular season features an eight-game slate starting at 6:50 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby ($9,700) Seattle Mariners (-161) vs. Boston Red Sox
Kirby has the top median and ceiling projection on Friday night’s slate in the FantasyLabs projections. Since he is the highest-priced pitcher, that isn’t shocking, but he does still bring the highest leverage on the slate as a pay up play due to his lower ownership projection.
Kirby also matches the most Pro Trends of any scheduled starter, and he has the third-highest strikeout prediction.
Last season, Kirby went 13-10 in his 31 starts for Seattle. He set new career highs across the board and finished with a 3.35 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and 8.12 K/9 rate. After a rough start to Spring Training, he seemed to find his groove in his last couple of games, so he should be ready to go for his first start of the season.
Kirby was especially effective at home last season, holding opponents to a .212 batting average and .251 wOBA at T-Mobile Park. The Red Sox got the win on Thursday night but are a fairly neutral matchup for opposing starting pitchers overall.
Paying up for a starting pitcher is tricky early in the season since they don’t usually go deep into games, but Kirby’s projections clearly have him as the best stud SP on this slate. He was a consistent enough option lasts season to be a good place to start your roster construction this Friday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
A.J. Puk ($7,000) Miami Marlins (-120) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
After coming out of the bullpen for all 142 of his previous career appearances, Puk will make his first MLB start on Friday at home against the Pirates. It’s a great spot for Puk, and the lanky lefty was very impressive throughout Spring Training. While there are definitely concerns about his long-term durability and sustainability in the rotation, for DFS, we can just enjoy his high ceiling on a game-by-game basis and take advantage of his value in this great spot.
Puk has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on this slate and the highest Pts/Sal. He has the third-highest median and ceiling projections but only the 11th-highest salary of the probable starters.
During Spring Training, Puk showed off his potential with 23 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings while allowing only two earned runs in four starts. Both of those runs came in his most recent outing when he faced the Astros starters and went 5 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts. He has the highest strikeout prediction of all pitchers on this slate, and getting him at this salary seems like an absolute steal.
The case to build around Puk is further strengthened by his favorable home matchup against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has made offensive improvements this offseason and scored six runs in their comeback win in Miami on Opening Day. However, they still have just a 3.9-run Vegas total, which is one of the lowest on the slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Logan Allen ($7,400) Cleveland Guardians (-143) at Oakland Athletics
Allen has a high ceiling, but he’s a high-risk play in his first start of the season. The 25-year-old had a solid rookie season, going 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA and 4.19 FIP in his 24 starts. He had a few stretches of dominance during the season but also looked very hittable during other stretches of the season. His streaky performance is what makes him risky this Friday, but his matchup in Oakland gives him a high ceiling.
Another risk factor with Allen on Friday is that he posted mixed results this Spring Training. He gave up 11 runs in 18 innings over five starts and issued 11 walks while striking out 14. He stretched out to over five innings in his most recent outing, but he was knocked around a bit by the Reds.
The upside for Allen is definitely there, though, since the A’s only have a 3.8 implied run line in Vegas, and Allen’s Guardians are favored to get the win. He threw four scoreless innings against Oakland when he faced them last season.
While the uncertainty around his form makes him GPP-only for me, he’s a solid pivot if Puk is too chalky or if you want to go with two bargain arms to stack your lineup with big bats.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Get used to it, people. The Dodgers are going to be a fixture in this spot this season with their totally stacked offense. In three games, they have scored 23 runs with three home runs, a .385 wOBA, and 139 wRC+. They lead Friday’s slate with an implied run total of 5.6 runs against the Cardinals, and they’ll be taking on lefty Zack Thompson ($5,800), who barely earned his way into St. Louis’s rotation after an injury to Sonny Gray.
The Dodgers do come with several key contributors who are left-handed, including three lefty-lefty matchups in this five-player stack. However, Thompson may not be around too long since he only worked up to four innings this Spring Training.
As will normally be the case this season, the Dodgers come at a hefty price tag, but if you go with Puk and Allen or other bargain pitchers they can work as a high-ceiling stack to center your lineup on this Friday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Lourdes Gurriel OF ($4,100 DraftKings) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Cal Quantrill)
The Diamondbacks made history on Thursday, setting the franchise record with 14 runs in the third inning. The 14 runs were the most in an inning for any team on Opening Day since 1900, and the team achieved that production without a single home run in the inning.
They cruised to a dominant 16-1 victory led by Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who had five RBI, three hits, and a two-run home run. Gurriel was a free agent this past offseason but opted to return to the D-backs after helping them on their successful playoff run last year. He tore up Spring Training, hitting .326 with a .397 wOBA and .239 ISO.
He is near the top of the projections at his mid-range salary again on Friday when the Diamondbacks look to keep crushing as they face Rockies starter Cal Quantrill. The Diamondbacks have the second-highest implied run total behind only the Dodgers, and their solid lineup is highlighted in the PlateIQ tool (using last year’s stats):
Connor Joe 1B ($3,000 DraftKings) Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins (A.J. Puk)
If you’re paying up for the Dodgers stack or building around Arizona, you’ll need to save some salary somewhere. Joe is a solid option even though he’s going head-to-head with Puk, who I like, as highlighted above. On this slate, he brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all batters in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections.
Joe opened the season as the Pirates’ leadoff hitter against lefty Jesus Luzardo, and he’ll likely be in the same spot in the lineup again Friday. He went 0-for-4 but did draw two walks and score a run. He hit .265 against lefties last season with five home runs, a .358 wOBA, and a 124 wRC+. Joe doesn’t typically bring a ton of power potential, which you normally want from first base. However, he does a good job getting on base and playing a part in run production, which is enough to make him a great play at only $3,000 to allow you to add power in other lineup spots.
Victor Scott OF ($2,000) St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (Bobby Miller)
Getting a player at the minimum unlocks so many other options, and Scott isn’t just a punt play because he brings plenty of upside. Scott is one of the Cardinals’ top prospects but was on track to start in the minor leagues until an injury to Dylan Carlson (shoulder). Scott got the call on Opening Day and went 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Even in that performance, though, he got to flash his best fantasy asset–speed.
The speedy 23-year-old stole a remarkable 94 stolen bases in his 132 games in high-A and double-A last season. He hit a solid .303 as well, so he’s far from totally lost at the plate. Hitting near the bottom of the Cardinals’ order should give him the green light and give him chances to score runs for St. Louis as long as he keeps starting in CF. At just $2,000, if he produces almost anything he will end up being a good value. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all batters in the FantasyLabs projections on Friday.
