The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-222) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Dodgers are now three games through the 2025 MLB season, and the chance at 162-0 is still possible. That’s obviously not going to happen, but the talk of this being the greatest team ever assembled is very much alive and well. They won the World Series in 2024 and somehow got markedly better heading into this season.
The biggest upgrade has been to their pitching staff. Los Angeles was extremely unlucky from a pitcher health standpoint last season, so they should be better by default in 2025. They also added Blake Snell from the Padres – a two-time Cy Young winner – giving them an embarrassment of riches on the bump.
Yamamoto was their big pitching acquisition before the 2024 season, signing the largest contract for a pitcher in MLB history before ever throwing an inning. With that in mind, his 2024 numbers felt slightly disappointing. Yamamoto was good… he just wasn’t that good. He pitched to a 3.00 ERA across 18 starts, and he added a 3.86 ERA across four postseason appearances.
The good news is that some of Yamamoto’s metrics suggest there’s room for improvement. His 2.61 FIP last season was fantastic, and he struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings. Yamamoto limited the Cubs to one run across five innings in his first start of 2025, so he has the potential to be even better this season.
Yamamoto also benefits from playing for the best team in the league. He’s going to be a pretty massive favorite every time he takes the bump, and Friday is no exception. He leads all pitchers with a 3.1 opponent implied team total and -222 moneyline odds, making him the safest option of the day. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 (per the Trends tool).
The matchup is also excellent. Detroit wasn’t quite as futile against right-handers last year as they were in the past, but they were still a below-average offense in that split. They also had the ninth-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers, and Yamamoto unsurprisingly has the top K Prediction on the slate. He checks all the boxes, and $9,000 could be one of the best price tags we get on him all season.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Castillo ($8,300) Seattle Mariners (-222) at Athletics
Castillo is the clear-cut No. 2 option on the slate. He’s not a true “value” at $8,300, but he’s still undoubtedly one of the best values at that price tag: his current salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating.
The A’s were a fantastic matchup for opposing pitchers last season, and not much figures to change in 2025. They had the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and they were absolutely dominated by Logan Gilbert on Opening Day. He surrendered just two hits across seven innings, and he added eight punchouts.
Castillo isn’t quite as good as Gilbert in a vacuum, but he’s still a very good pitcher. He posted a 3.64 ERA last season, his sixth-straight year with a sub-4.00 mark. His strikeouts were slightly down, but his mark of 8.98 per nine innings is still doable for fantasy.
Castillo also pitches in a friendly environment in Seattle, and that will be the case on Friday. T-Mobile Stadium graded out as the least hitter-friendly venue in baseball per 2024 Statcast Park Factors, and Castillo’s ERA was more than a full run lower at home than on the road.
Ultimately, his 3.3 opponent implied team total is the second-best mark on the slate, while his 6.06 K Prediction ranks fourth. Only Yamamoto possesses higher median and ceiling projections in our MLB Models, despite Castillo owning just the fifth-highest price tag.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Dylan Cease ($9,300) San Diego Padres (-141) vs. Atlanta Braves
Cease is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, which is not ideal for a matchup vs. the Braves. That could keep his ownership in check, and Cease does have some upside in this spot. The Braves had the 10th-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers last year, and Cease can rack up punchouts in bunches. He ranked in the 89th percentile for strikeout rate last season, and he was in the 92nd percentile for Whiff rate.
Jeffrey Springs ($7,500) Athletics (+119) at Seattle Mariners
While the Mariners have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, their offense leaves a lot to be desired. They were 20th in runs per game last season, and they had the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. southpaws. That makes Springs an intriguing option. He’s an underdog in this spot, and he’s missed most of the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. However, he was a very good pitcher before getting hurt, so he has some appeal if he can recapture his old form.
Jack Leiter ($6,500) Texas Rangers (-105) vs. Boston Red Sox
Leiter is a fascinating option heading into his first start of the year. He has all the pedigree in the world. He was selected second overall by the Rangers in the 2021 MLB Draft and immediately became one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. However, he struggled to live up to that billing. Leiter was shelled for most of his minor league career and pitched to an 8.83 ERA in his first taste of MLB action last season.
So why Leiter on Friday? He displayed an improved pitch mix during Spring Training, resulting in a 3.48 ERA and 9.15 K/9. We’ll see if he can keep that going in the regular season – especially in a tough matchup vs. the Red Sox – but the talent is enough to make him an interesting SP2 for those looking to save at pitcher. He’s also projected for less than 5% ownership.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by ceiling belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
While Leiter may have impressed during spring training, there are plenty of pitchers who have been unable to carry that success forward. That makes him an interesting option to target and to stack against.
On paper, the Red Sox should be an elite offensive team this season. They were ninth in runs per game last season, and they’re better heading into 2025. They added a reliable veteran in Alex Bregman, while Tristan Casas returns after playing just 63 games in 2024.
Boston’s 4.7 implied team total is the top mark on the slate, and they have a bunch of players who can do damage against right-handers (per Plate IQ):
The top of the Red Sox lineup was quiet on Opening Day, with their top five hitters going a combined 1-19 with a walk against the Rangers. The big blows came from No. 7 hitter Wilyer Abreu, who clubbed two homers in the win. Abreu remains very affordable at $3,500 and will be on the positive side of his splits vs. Leiter, so he’s an interesting pivot for those looking to stack the Red Sox in a more contrarian manner.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Corbin Carroll OF ($5,800) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
The Diamondbacks are another team that should draw plenty of interest on this slate. They rank second in implied team total, and Taillon is not the same player that he was in his prime.
Carroll took a step back in his second professional season, but that was due to a dreadful first-half slump. He was one of the best hitters in baseball after the All-Star break, posting a 147 wRC+ with a .309 ISO. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, he has one of the top ceilings on the slate.
Kyle Stowers OF ($2,400) Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Mitch Keller)
There aren’t a ton of cheap value targets on DraftKings, but Stowers fits the bill. He’s priced at just $2,400 on DraftKings despite a premium place in the Marlins’ lineup. He hit second against a right-hander on Opening Day, and he’ll likely do the same Friday vs. Keller.
Stowers had to deal with Paul Skenes in his first outing this season, and he more than held his own. He went 1-3 with two walks, adding an RBI and a run scored in the process. Keller isn’t in nearly the same class as Skenes, so he’s a decent source of savings for cash games.
Bo Bichette ($4,200) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Charlie Morton)
Bichette is coming off a lost season in 2024. He was limited to just 81 games, and he wasn’t nearly as productive as usual when on the field. He had just a 71 wRC+ after checking in at 120 or greater in each of the previous five seasons.
The good news is that Bichette seems fully healthy and poised for a bounce-back. He raked in Spring Training – his four homers were identical to his regular season tally from last year – and he posted a 177 wRC+. His track record is too good to suggest he deserves to be a $4,200 player.
Bichette gets an interesting matchup vs. Morton on Friday. Morton has been a very good pitcher for a long time, but he started to show signs of decline last season. Now 41 years old, Father Time may have finally gotten the best of him.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.
