The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
On Friday night, Major League Baseball gets the weekend off to a spectacular start with a huge 10-game slate on DraftKings. The Dodgers visit the Yankees in the headline matchup, but several other games also have intriguing matchups that could be the key to assembling a winning fantasy baseball roster. With 20 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of good plays to consider, so let’s take a look at the top plays from our projections.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Crochet ($8,900) Chicago White Sox (-106) vs. Boston Red Sox
It has been an awful year for the White Sox so far, and they have lost a franchise-record 14 straight games. However, Crochet has been one of the few bright spots. The 24-year-old lefty has the highest median and floor projections of all Friday’s starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest ceiling and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections.
Crochet is only 5-5 in his 13 starts, but since his team is only 15-58, that record isn’t bad. He has a 3.49 ERA and 2.88 FIP through his first 69 2/3 innings this season with a very impressive 93 strikeouts. His MLB-leading 12.01 K/9 has helped him average over 20 DraftKings points per start and post over 23 DraftKings points in each of his last six outings.
This matchup should be a great one for Crochet, even though the Red Sox had a season-high 24 hits on Thursday. Overall, the Red Sox have the fifth-highest K% in the MLB, but against lefties, they have the highest K% of all teams. Their wOBA and batting average are decent, so they could get some runs, but Crochet’s strikeout potential is high enough that he’s still a great play.
Of the 20 starting pitchers on the slate, Crochet has the highest strikeout prediction, and he matches the second-most Pro Trends. His salary is relatively affordable under $9,000, and he will look to continue to post good results even though he’s stuck playing for a struggling team. Whether the White Sox win for the first time since May 21 or not, Crochet seems set for a strong start.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Lance Lynn ($7,400) St. Louis Cardinals (-199) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Cardinals are the heaviest favorites on Friday’s main slate, and Lance Lynn has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. Lynn has had his ups and downs this season but is in a great matchup against the Rockies away from Coors Field.
In his 12 starts, Lynn has totaled 57 strikeouts in 61 1/3 innings while posting a 3.23 ERA and 4.13 FIP. He has allowed just one earned run over his last three starts, though, despite facing tough matchups against the Orioles, Reds, and Phillies. He had 25.7 DraftKings points in his home start against the Orioles during that span, with five strikeouts in six shutout innings.
Lynn will be back home for this matchup with the Rockies, who have a team wRC+ of just 81, higher only than the White Sox. The league average for wRC+ is 100, so the team is significantly below average when Park Factors are included. Even without adjustments for Coors, the Rockies have the third-highest K% and the seventh-lowest ISO, so they’re a favorable matchup for Lynn to provide great value this Friday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Framber Valdez ($8,200) Houston Astros (-185) at Los Angeles Angels
Valdez has had highs and lows since coming off the IL, with three strong starts of over 20 DraftKings points and two starts where he earned a combined -4.0 DraftKings points. That kind of huge variance makes him an ideal GPP pick since he brings such a high ceiling that he’s worth the risk of a dud.
While he doesn’t look as strong in THE BAT X projections, Valdez has the highest ceiling, median and floor projection in the FantasyLabs projections. He has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction, and the Angels have the fourth-lowest implied team total.
Valdez earned his fourth win of the season with seven strong innings in his most recent outing, beating the Twins in Houston to earn 22.8 DraftKings points. Most of his best starts have come at home, but that’s also where his worst outings have been. On the road, like he is on Friday, Valdez has a 3.50 ERA and 2.42 FIP with 14 strikeouts in 18 innings.
In general, the Angels are a slightly favorable matchup, but they have been very good this year against lefties and hammered Framber for eight runs on 10 hits when they faced him in mid-May. The matchup cranks up the risk factor enough to make him best left for GPP use, but he brings undeniable upside in that format.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by projected points using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate as they face their division rivals in Anaheim. They’ll go up against Griffin Canning in this matchup, who has gone 2-5 in his 12 starts with a 4.69 ERA and 5.30 FIP. Canning’s splits are a huge factor to consider when building this stack since he holds righties to a .204 average while letting lefties hit .302 with a .399 wOBA and nine of his 11 home runs allowed this season.
As a result, Yordan Alvarez is a great place to start this stack. He has the second-highest median projection and fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters, using the blended projections described below and is tied with his teammate Jose Altuve for the highest ceiling projection.
Alex Bregman has been red hot with five homers, a .581 wOBA, and an average of 14.5 DraftKings points per contest in his last eight games. There’s also some good value to add as part of the stack with Yainer Diaz, Jose Abreu, switch-hitting Victor Carantini, and even Jake Meyers or lefty Trey Cabbage as bargain plays if they’re in the lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
1B/3B Jake Burger ($3,300) Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
Burger missed almost a month with an intercostal strain earlier this season and seemed to re-injure himself on Tuesday. However, he said that he is pain-free and that the team just opted to give him a day off on Wednesday to be sure, especially with Thursday’s day off. Since returning from the IL, Burger has turned his season around in a big way.
Over his first 31 games, Burger was hitting only .164 with a woeful .208 wOBA. In his last 10 games, though, he has flipped that script, hitting .405 ( 17-for-42) with a double, a home run, a .411 wOBA, and an average of 8.8 DraftKings points per game.
Burger ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at both 1B and 3B as he and the Marlins face the Guardians. Lefty Logan Allen has allowed 10 runs in his last two games, and his ERA has climbed to 5.83 to go with his 5.24 FIP. Allen has been tough on lefties, but righties like Burger have hit him well, with a .406 wOBA on the season.
2B/SS Brett Wisely ($2,600) San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers (Michael Lorenzen)
In Friday’s lineup, Wisely is projected to lead off against Lorenzen and the Rangers. He has nice positional versatility at either middle infield spot and can fit in multiple roster builds as a result. Of all the hitters in play on Friday, Wisely has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only two punt plays at the minimum salary (David Bote and Dylan Carlson).
Wisely led off on Monday in the Giants’ last game against a right-handed starting pitcher and went 2-for-4 with 10 DraftKings points. Since being called up in mid-May, the 25-year-old lefty is hitting .341 (14-for-41) with two doubles, a home run, a stolen base, and a .351 wOBA.
The Giants are in a tough matchup against Lorenzen on Friday, but they bring good value throughout their lineup, as you can see using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Stuart Fairchild ($2,900) Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
Fairchild is always a good value option when the Reds face a lefty, and he’s projected to hit leadoff against Steele and the Cubs on Friday night. He has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders using the blended projections.
In each of his last three starts, Fairchild has posted double-digit DraftKings points and has at least 9.0 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games with multiple at-bats. On the season, Fairchild is hitting an impressive .333 against lefties with three home runs, six stolen bases and a .406 wOBA. He actually has a rare negative wRC+ against righties but a very strong 161 wRC+ against lefties.
Fairchild is 2-for-7 with a walk and an RBI against Steele in their past meetings, and he’s a great way to spend less than $3,000 at an outfield spot and still get a hitter in prime position to produce Friday night.
