The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
It’s a full Friday night of DFS fantasy baseball on DraftKings main slate, which begins at 7:05 p.m. ET when the Orioles welcome in the Rangers in a great AL matchup. Five of the 13 games are divisional matchups, including the final game on the slate, which features the Giants and the Dodgers in a big NL West showdown in San Francisco.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,900) Seattle Mariners (-118) vs. Minnesota Twins
In one of the most interesting series of the weekend, the AL-West-leading Mariners host the Twins, who currently have the second Wild Card spot in the AL playoff race. This could be a potential playoff series preview, and the Mariners start their homestand by sending Gilbert to the mound.
He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all 24 starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections, and he has the second-highest of each of those projections in the FantasyLabs projections. He has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction on the slate, and the Twins have the lowest implied run total on the board.
Gilbert has gone 5-4 in his 16 starts with a 2.71 ERA and 3.26 FIP. He has been especially effective at home, where he has 52 strikeouts in 47 1/3 innings and has held opponents to a .185 batting average and .237 wOBA. In each of his last four starts, Gilbert has totaled over 20 DraftKings points and dominated for over 30 Draftings points in each of his last two outings against the Rangers and Marlins. He totaled 15 strikeouts while pitching eight shutout innings in each of those starts.
While the matchup against Minnesota isn’t ideal, the fact that he’s at home and has been so locked in lately is enough to make Gilbert the top pay-up play of Friday’s slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Frankie Montas ($6,500) Cincinnati Reds (-100) at St. Louis Cardinals
Montas has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of Friday’s starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the third-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. He has been solid but not spectacular in his first season in Cincinnati, but he is more of a safe pick than the other options under $8,000. On Friday’s slate, there’s no shortage of value options, but they all come with major risk factors.
In his 14 starts, Montas has gone 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA, 4.53 FIP and 7.2 K/9 rate. He faced the Cardinals at the end of May and went six innings, allowing three runs in a loss and earning 12.1 DraftKings points. He has 20 strikeouts in his 19 1/3 innings over four starts since that outing, highlighted by a dominant performance at Coors Field, where he surprisingly posted a season-high 36 DraftKings points by spinning seven shutout innings with nine punchouts.
As a whole, the Cardinals are an average to slightly-favorable matchup. They do rank in the top 10 in K%, though, so there is some added strikeout upside if Montas can continue his recent form. He has three quality starts in his last five games, with an 8.88 K/9 and 3.63 FIP over that stretch, which indicates that he is trending in the right direction.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Slade Cecconi ($6,200) Arizona Diamondbacks (-152) vs. Oakland Athletics
Cecconi has had an up-and-down year for the Dbacks, but he’s in a great spot to deliver value against the A’s. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all scheduled starting pitchers in both THE BAT X projections and the FantasyLabs projections and costs barely more than $6,000, leaving plenty of salary for other spots.
In his last start, Cecconi only lasted three innings against the Phillies in extremely hot conditions in Philadephia. He only gave up one run but needed 46 pitches to get just nine outs. He’ll look to be much more efficient as he returns home to the dome at Chase Field. In his previous outing, Cecconi showed his upside by holding the Nats to just three hits in six shutout innings with six strikeouts to earn 27.7 DraftKings points and his second win of the season. Cecconi has ugly home splits, but he has only made three starts in Arizona all season.
The 25-year-old has flashed enough upside recently to be worth a flier play in this matchup against the A’s. Oakland’s lineup has the second-highest K% in the MLB this season and the fourth-lowest team wOBA. On the road, they have hit just .215 as a team with an 85 team wRC+.
Ceconni is high-risk, which is why he’s best left for GPP constructions, but he has the potential to step up with a big game if he can recapture the form he showed in D.C. last week.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by both Projected Points and Projected Plus/Minus using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
The Guardians dropped the opener of their series against the Royals on Thursday, but our projections like them to bounce back in Friday’s matchup against Brady Singer. Singer started the year on-pitch for the Royals but has been a little flat in his recent outings. He is 0-2 in June with a 4.23 ERA and 4.97 FIP with a 1.30 WHIP. He pitched against the Guardians during that stretch, giving up nine hits and three runs in 3 2/3 innings.
Cleveland’s lineup should be a great source of value and production, starting at the top with Steven Kwan and Daniel Schneemann, who moved into the second spot in the order and would be an elite value if he’s back in that spot again on Friday (more on him below).
Jose Ramirez has the second-highest ceilign of all hitters on Friday night’s slate in the aggregated projections and Josh Naylor should be back in the lineup after missing a few games earlier this week as well. The Guardians have also added some young power into the mix by calling up Jhonkensy Noel, who is still at the minimum salary on Friday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
3B/OF Daniel Schneemann ($2,900) Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Either as part of the stack discussed above or as a play on his own, Schneemann is a great option to consider. The versatility lefty has played all over the diamond since joining the Guardians from Triple-A, filling in at all three outfield spots, 2B, SS, and 3B. While his defensive versatility is extremely valuable to his real-life squad, his work at the plate has made him a great option for fantasy as well.
Schneemann has gone 14-for-52 (.269) in his 19 games since being called up with two doubles, two triples, two home runs and a .369 wOBA. He added a stolen base as well to average 6.4 DraftKings points per game overall and 7.6 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests. Before being called up, he hit .294 with 10 homers, four stolen bases, and a .431 wOBA at Triple-A, so his production appears to be legit.
If he continues to bat second between Kwan and the meat of the Guardians order, getting him under $3,000 is an incredible deal.
2B Colt Keith ($2,600) Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels (Zach Plesac)
The Tigers lineup is projected to be another great source of value, even though they were shut out on Thursday night by the Angels. Colt Keith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the hitters on the board in what should be a great spot for him against Plesac. Plesac has given up nine runs in just 9 1/3 innings over his two starts in the majors this season, and he was struggling at Triple-A as well with a 5.42 ERA and 6.04 FIP in 13 starts. Lefties like Keith have teed off on Plesac, posting a .561 wOBA against him in his small sample size this season and a .486 wOBA against him last season.
After getting a huge contract, Keith got off to a slow start to his rookie year but has turned things around lately and moved to the second spot in the Tigers lineup. Over his last 35 games, he is hitting an even .300 with six doubles, four home runs, two stolen bases, and a .342 wOBA. Since moving to the No. 2 spot in the order, he has gone 8-for-27 (.296) over his last seven games with a homer, a stolen base, and an average of 7.7 DraftKings points per contest.
Keith isn’t the only Tigers bat that ranks high in our projections. His teammates Jonathan Malloy and Zach McKinstry rank second and third in Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate, while Matt Vierling and Gio Urshela also rank near the top of their positions. Here’s how all the Tigers stack up in our PlateIQ tool:
OF Heston Kjerstad ($2,200) Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers (Max Scherzer)
Kjerstad is a top prospect who is absolutely loaded with power potential but still comes remarkably cheap. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on Friday’s slate for his matchup with Max Scherzer.
The 25-year-old lefty dominated at Triple-A this season, smashing 16 home runs with a .300 ISO, .424 wOBA, and .300 batting average and even adding in a couple of stolen bases as well. He struggled during his first look at the majors this season, going just 2-for-17 in seven games, but he already looks much more comfortable this time around.
He has made three starts since being called back up on Monday and went 4-for-10 (.400) with a double, a home run, a walk, and three RBI. He opened the series against the Rangers with his first MLB homer of the season and 25 DraftKings points, and he’ll look to again deliver exceptional value.
