The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
It’s the start of another great weekend of fantasy baseball, and the action begins on Friday night with a massive 12-game slate. While only two of the matchups are divisional contests, there are several intriguing series getting underway for what should be an exciting weekend. One of the matchups to definitely watch will be the Pirates heading to Coors Field to face the Rockies in a series that should have plenty of offense.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,500) Atlanta Braves (-214) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sale and the Braves are the heaviest favorites on Friday’s slate, and the veteran lefty has the highest ceiling and median projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. Sale edges out Freddy Peralta for the highest strikeout prediction on the slate as well.
After being traded from the Red Sox to the Braves, Sale has had an incredible renaissance season. He is 8-2 in his 12 starts with a 3.01 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and a wildly impressive 11.09 K/9 rate, which would be his highest since 2019 if he continues at this pace. Sale has been especially effective at home with a 2.91 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings at Truist Park, where he has held opponents to a .204 batting average.
Sale has posted at least 27 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight starts, with one weird outlier when he was knocked around by the Athletics. He bounced back from that outing with a good showing against the Nats last Friday and will look to keep rolling against the Rays.
Tampa Bay should be a favorable matchup for Sale since they rank in the top 10 in the MLB in K% and have the fourth-highest K% against lefties. Over the last 30 days, the Rays have the second-lowest team batting average in the MLB at only .213 and have scored the fifth-fewest runs, averaging 3.46 runs per contest.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hunter Brown ($7,200) Houston Astros (-110) vs. Detroit Tigers
Brown has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the 24 scheduled starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the sixth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. He will go head-to-head with Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal in what should be one of the best pitching matchups of the night.
At the start of the season, Brown looked like a disaster, going 0-4 with a 9.78 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in his first six starts. He turned things around, though, starting with the last time he faced the Tigers. In his six games dating back to that outing, he has a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and has been able to hold opponents to a .180 batting average. During that span, he has 38 strikeouts in 34 innings and has posted over 12 DraftKings points in six straight games, including over 25 DraftKings points in two of his last three contests.
Brown will look to duplicate the success he had in mid May when he held Detroit to one run over five innings in a no-decision that earned him 20.3 DraftKings points.
The Tigers are a slightly favorable matchup for Brown since they rank 10th in the MLB in K%, have the eighth-lowest team wOBA, and seventh-lowest team wRC+. Getting the 25-year-old righty at just over $7,000 is a strong value option for Friday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($8,300) Cincinnati Reds (+115) at Milwaukee Brewers
Greene is in a less-than-ideal matchup against the Brew Crew in Milwaukee, but he brings enough of a high ceiling due to his strikeout potential to still be a strong GPP option at this mid-range price point. He has the fourth-highest median and ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs projections and the fifth-highest ceiling projection in THE BAT X projections, even though he only has the 10th-highest salary.
In his 13 starts this season, Greene has posted a 3.61 ERA and 3.74 FIP while striking out 84 batters in 77 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate is actually a little down from last year, but his ERA and FIP have also dropped significantly, and he has posted five quality starts after managing just seven in 22 games last season.
Greene comes into this dangerous matchup with positive momentum after totaling over 21 DraftKings points in four of his last five outings. It actually plays into his best splits that this game is on the road since he has a 2.97 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 0.96 WHIP in his 30 1/3 away innings.
The matchup makes him a higher risk than either Brown or Sale, but for GPP, Greene has a high enough ceiling in this divisional matchup to definitely deserve a look.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks offer a relatively affordable stack from the top five spots of their lineup, and they have the highest implied run total on the slate. They’re in a good spot against Chris Flexen, who has a 5.06 ERA and 4.57 FIP in his 14 games for the White Sox, and he has been especially hittable by left-handed batters. Lefties this season have hit six of the nine home runs he has allowed while posting a .354 wOBA.
Corbin Carroll has struggled this season but has been turning things around lately. He is still only hitting .210 on the year but has hit .304 with a .358 wOBA over his last 15 games and also picked up three stolen bases in his last seven games to bring his total to 12 stolen bases on the season. In those seven games, he averaged 11.7 DraftKings points per game. Joc Peterson homered and had five RBI for 29 DraftKings points on Thursday and has hit safely in four of his last six.
Lower in the lineup, Geraldo Perdomo and Blaze Alexander can be good value options to consider, or you can lean into the left side of the stack and add in Ketel Marte and Jake McCarthy.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
1B Andrew Vaughn ($3,200) Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
Vaughn has hit in the heart of the order for most of the season for the White Sox, but only recently has he started regularly turning in good enough fantasy games to be a good option. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 1B on Friday’s slate and ranks in the top 10 of all hitters.
Over his last 10 games, Vaughn has six multi-hit performances and has hit .366 with four home runs and a .471 wOBA. He averaged 11.3 DraftKings points over that 10-game stretch, and his salary is still barely over $3,000.
Vaughn and the White Sox face Ryne Nelson, who has allowed three homers and 12 runs over his last three starts. Nelson pitches to a lot of contact, so Vaughn brings good value and upside on his current hot streak.
2B/OF Willi Castro ($4,100) Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics (Mitch Spence)
Castro has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 2B and the fourth-highest of all outfielders. He and the Twins are heavily favored at home against the Athletics. After success filling in for multiple injuries, Castro has regularly been leading off for Minnesota and is projected to be atop the lineup again on Friday against Mitch Spence.
Over his last 15 games, Castro has scored 11 runs and is 14-for-50 (.280) with two doubles, a triple, a homer, and a stolen base while posting a .381 wOBA. Castro has three barrels and a 37.8% hard-hit rate over those 15 games per Statcast, and he should be in a good spot to post another good game on Friday.
Check out how all the Twins stack up against Spence and the Athletics this Friday using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Justyn-Henry Malloy ($2,300) Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros (Hunter Brown)
If you need to go ultra-cheap in one of your roster spots, Malloy is worth a look since he has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters under $3,000 and the third-highest in that salary range in the outfield.
Malloy began the season as the No. 6 prospect in the Tigers system and is a perfect fit for the Tigers’ philosophy of zone control with power. Last year, he blasted 23 homers with a .402 wOBA in Triple-A, and this year, he hit six homers home a .397 wOBA in 45 games before being called up. He’s only been with the MLB squad for nine games but is already starting to show signs he’s ready for the big show.
In his nine games, Malloy is 5-for-23 (.217) with five walks with a pair of home runs. All those walks and homers have come in his last seven games, and he averaged 8.4 DraftKings points during that span, highlighted by 25 DraftKings points and his second homer of the year on Thursday. Malloy has great upside for such a low salary this Friday.
