The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
A festive weekend of fantasy baseball continues with a full Friday slate for DFS on DraftKings. The main slate contests include 12 games set to take place under the lights. The first game begins at 7:05 p.m. ET when the Yankees and Red Sox meet in a rivalry game in the Bronx. In other important matchups between potential playoff teams, the Twins host the Astros, the Phillies face the Braves in Atlanta, and the Brew Crew takes on the Dodgers in the late game. Coors Field is also in play as the Royals head to Denver to face the Rockies.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-198) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Dodgers are the second-heaviest favorites on Friday’s slate as they send Glasnow to the mound against the Brewers and their recent acquisition, Aaron Civale. Glasnow is looking to bounce back from a rough start last Saturday, but he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all 24 starting pitchers in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections.
Glasnow leads the NL with 136 strikeouts and an 11.88 K/9 rate. He has gone 8-5 in his 17 starts with a 3.23 ERA and 2.69 FIP. He slipped up in his last start against the Giants, allowing five runs on seven hits in three innings and only striking out one. His -6.7 DraftKings points were a huge letdown, especially after he produced over 35 DraftKings points in each of his two previous outings.
Before that ugly outing, Glasnow went 2-2 in five starts with a 2.45 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 33 innings. He’ll look to return to that form in Friday’s contest, and he brings the highest strikeout prediction and matches the most Pro Trends on the slate.
The Brewers aren’t an easy matchup, but none of the top arms have cushy spots Friday. Milwaukee is coming off a four-game split in Coors Field, where they only scored a total of 10 runs over their last three games. Overall, they rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories this season.
Glasnow was dominant most of the season, and our projections point to him bouncing back in a big way and being worth building around as a stud pitcher to build around.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cole Ragans ($8,200) Kansas City Royals (-182) at Colorado Rockies
Ragans and the Royals roll into Denver to take on the Rockies, but even at Coors Field, the 26-year-old lefty has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of Friday’s starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections. He also has the second-highest median and ceiling projections of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections.
In his recent starts, Ragans hasn’t been especially sharp, but he continues to bring plenty of strikeouts that often make up for his mistakes. He has 126 strikeouts in 102 2/3 innings on the season and 37 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings over his last five outings. He lost to Cleveland in his most recent start but beat Miami with an impressive total of 33.3 DraftKings points in his previous outing. Ragans worked at least six innings in five straight starts before his last outing, posting over 18 DraftKings points in four of those games.
The risk is obvious–he’s pitching at Coors Field. The Rockies aren’t a very intimidating lineup overall, but when they’re at home, the altitude can inflate run totals in a hurry. Over the last 30 days, the Rockies rank in the bottom five in the MLB in team wRC+ (which includes Park Factor), and they also rank in the top 10 in K%.
The last three games at Coors Field this week have been low-scoring with a total of 17 runs scored and the Brewers even getting a shutout on Wednesday. As a result, Ragans brings enough strikeout upside to be a good value play, especially since he comes at a discount since he’s pitching at elevation.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Pablo Lopez ($9,400) Minnesota Twins (-160) vs. Houston Astros
The Twins start the weekend in the second Wild Card spot, and the Astros are also in the thick of the Wild Card race. Minnesota opens the series with a huge starting pitching advantage on Friday, as they send Lopez to the hill against a bullpen game for the Astros.
Lopez has the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all 24 starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in the BAT X projections. He has the fifth-highest strikeout prediction and fifth-lowest implied runs allowed total on the board.
After struggling earlier this season, Lopez has locked in, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his last six games while compiling a 4-1 record, 4.24 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 41 strikeouts in 34 innings. His strikeout production peaked in his last two starts against the A’s and Mariners, and he has 23 strikeouts in 14 innings in those back-to-back road wins.
Lopez beat the Astros in Houston as part of that run, facing them on May 31 and pitching seven innings with just one run allowed and six strikeouts for 25.6 DraftKings points. His last two starts with all those strikeouts have been even more productive, earning him 48.2 and 30.5 DraftKings points.
However, the Astros aren’t an easy matchup, which is why Lopez is best used in GPP contests. Houston’s offense ranks near the top of most short-term offensive categories, so they come into this series hot enough to make Lopez boom or bust. The upside is clear, but the matchup brings significant risk as well.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by both Projected Points and Ceiling using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals get the top stack spot since they’re in Coors Field against Kyle Freeland. The Rockies lefty is 0-3 in his six starts this season and has allowed 27 runs in 28 1/3 innings, including four home runs. All four of those homers have been hit by right-handed batters, who have a .389 wOBA against him this season. Freeland did look much better in his last two starts since coming off the IL, but he’s still a good matchup to attack
Kansas City’s lineup usually includes plenty of right-handed batters. Bobby Witt is the most expensive play of the bunch but he also has the highest ceiling projection of any hitter on the whole slate. Witt has three multi-hit games already this week and is hitting .321 with three homers, three stolen bases, and a .392 wOBA over his last 22 games. Salvador Perez and Hunter Renfroe are also strong power plays at Coors Field while Maikel Garcia is also expected to be very productive from the leadoff spot.
The top stack is the top five hitters in the lineup, as highlighted above, but there’s also plenty of value lower down in the lineup if you want to work Dairon Blanco or Nick Loftin into the mix.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Corbin Carroll ($4,800) Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
Using the blending projections, Carroll has the second-highest ceiling projection of all outfielders this Friday and the best Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders over $4,500. It’s been a rough year for the still-developing 23-year-old, but he has shown signs of starting to come around.
On the season, Carroll is hitting only .210 with a .276 wOBA after hitting .285 with a .370 wOBA last year. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games, though, and picked up his 15th stolen base of the season on Thursday night against the Dodgers.
Part of the reason Carroll has such good projections is that his Dbacks are expected to put up good production against Vasquez in San Diego. The Padres’ starter has allowed lefties to hit .449 (40-for-89) against him this season with five home runs and a .505 wOBA. Getting Carroll under $5,000 in such a smash spot is a great value play under $5,000.
1B Ben Rice ($2,900) New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox (Tanner Houck)
Rice has the best Projected Plus/Minus of all 1B on this slate and still comes at an extremely affordable salary under $3,000. He is a great way to balance out big spending in other spots and still get a good ceiling.
On Thursday, the Yankees moved Rice to the leadoff spot in place of Anthony Volpe, and Rice projects to be back atop the power-packed lineup this Friday as well. Rice celebrated his move to the top of the order with his first MLB home run and 14 DraftKings points. In his 15 games since being called up, the 25-year-old rookie is 11-for-42 (.262) with eight walks, three doubles, and a .338 wOBA. At Triple-A, he hit .333 with three homers and a .457 wOBA before being called up.
Here’s how Rice and the rest of the Yankees look in their matchup for Friday using our PlateIQ tool (which now comes in dark mode):
3B Brooks Lee ($2,000) Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros (Shawn Dubin)
Lee is another top hitting prospect with great value this Friday. The 23-year-old switch-hitter was ranked as the No. 2 prospect in the Twins system and the No. 13 prospect in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline. He got a late start to the season after suffering a back injury in Spring Training but hit .329 with seven homers and a .439 wOBA in 20 games at Triple-A before being called up by Minnesota when Royce Lewis (groin) landed back on the IL once again.
The No. 8 pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Lee has experience at multiple infield positions and could stick in the majors if he is productive while Lewis is out. He looked solid in his first two games in the majors, going 2-for-4 with 8.0 DKFP in his debut and 1-for-2 with a walk and 7.0 DKFP on Thursday. He has a polished, MLB-ready approach at the plate and could be the latest in a long line of strong Twins prospects that has kept them competitive over the last few years.
On Friday, Lee brings a very high ceiling from the minimum salary against the Astros, who have Shawn Dubin ($5,500) scheduled as the opener for their bullpen game.
