The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Major League Baseball rolls into the final weekend before the All-Star Break with everyone playing under the lights on Friday night. Three games are on a turbo slate, which starts at 6:40 p.m. ET, followed by the main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET, which includes 12 nice matchups poised to fill up Friday night with fantasy baseball. The Yankees and Orioles get the action starts at Camden Yards in one of four divisional series this weekend, including a pair from the AL West. Other marquee matchups include the Royals visiting the Red Sox and the Braves taking on the Padres in sunny San Diego. Let’s take a look at the top plays from Friday night’s 24-team player pool according to our models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garret Crochet ($10,300) Chicago White Sox (-162) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
While several aces are scheduled to be on the hill this Friday, Crochet stands out as the top option by a wide margin. He brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal in the FantasyLabs projections.
Crochet has been outstanding this season despite his team’s struggles. The 25-year-old lefty is likely to be one of the most exciting pieces moved at the trade deadline and has built an impressive resume with a 6-6 record in 19 starts while posting a 3.08 ERA, 2.43 FIP and an MLB-leading 12.47 K/9. He totaled 146 strikeouts in his 105 1/3 innings and has held opponents to a 37.4% hard-hit rate, per Statcast, and a .202 batting average.
In his last start, he wasn’t efficient against the Marlins and only made it through four innings, but before that; he had pitched at least 5 2/3 in 11 straight starts while only giving up more than two runs once. He finished with just 9.6 DraftKings points in Miami but had over 20 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 and over 30 DraftKings points in three of his last five before that letdown.
In his Friday matchup against the Pirates, Crochet has the highest strikeout prediction and is tied for the second-lowest opponent’s implied run total. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom five in team batting average, wOBA, and ISO this season and ranks in the top five in K%. The matchup should help him bounce back with a strong outing as his worth at the trade deadline continues to climb.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cole Ragans ($8,500) Kansas City Royals (-115) at Boston Red Sox
The Royals and Red Sox are just one game apart in the Wild Card race coming into their three-game series this weekend. Ragans takes the mound for the first game of the series, and the lefty should be a great source of mid-range value with a high ceiling due to his strikeout potential. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any starter in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
So far this season, Ragans has been a key contributor to the Royals’ rotation, going 5-6 with a 3.28 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 11 K/9. He has the third-highest K/9 in the American League, totaling 134 strikeouts in 109 2/3 innings. Ragans has been especially good on the road this season and even managed a quality start and 23 DraftKings points at Coors Field in his most recent start. He has at least six strikeouts in four straight starts and in nine of his last 10.
Ragans has the third-highest strikeout prediction on the slate, behind only Crochet and Joe Ryan, who each have much higher salaries. He has a very favorable strikeout matchup against the Red Sox. While Boston’s lineup has been productive overall, the Red Sox lead the MLB in K% against lefties by a wide margin.
Even if Ragans gives up a few runs, he’ll likely be able to pick up enough strikeouts to still turn in a good fantasy total. Getting him under $9,000 is a great value given his upside, and he has the potential to be right among the aces at the top of the salary structure even though he costs over $1,000 less.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cade Povich ($5,900) Baltimore Orioles (+106) vs. New York Yankees
One GPP strategy to consider is stacking big bats and using Povich as an ultra-cheap flier at SP. The rookie has some major risk factors but also a high ceiling. Overall, he has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both THE BAT X projections and the FantasyLabs projections, but under $8,000, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
Povich is the eighth-best overall prospect and second-best pitching prospect in the Orioles system, according to MLB Pipeline. The 24-year-old lefty made his MLB debut in early June and went 1-2 with a decent 4.05 ERA and 5.19 FIP in his first five starts. After those five outings, he struggled badly in his most recent outing, allowing the lowly A’s to put up eight runs in just one inning.
He’ll look to bounce back from that disaster in a tough matchup against the Yankees. However, he did have one of his best MLB outings in the Bronx, where he held New York to just one run on one hit in 4 2/3 innings on June 19. He had to work around five walks in that game, and control has continued to be an issue.
At Triple-A, Povich had a 3.18 ERA, a 3.18 FIP, and 11.9 K/9 in 11 starts, but he has only had a 5.9 K/9 rate in his 27 2/3 innings in the MLB. As he adjusts to this level, he has more strikeout potential than he has shown, which gives him enough of an upside to make him a punt play consideration this Friday. The Yankees are 5-15 over their last 20 games, so they’re not a must-avoid matchup at this point. However, the risk helps drop Povich’s price under $6,000.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by both Projected Points and Projected Plus/Minus using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Miami Marlins:
The Marlins aren’t normally an option we highlight in our stacks, but on Friday night, they’re in a great spot against the Reds at Great American Ballpark, which can be very hitter-friendly in summer conditions. The Marlins will face Reds rookie Carson Spiers, who is 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA and 3.67 FIP in his nine MLB games and has allowed four home runs. Three of those four homers have come to lefties, who have a .381 wOBA against him.
The Marlins lineup usually includes several key lefties who are part of this stack, including leadoff hitter Jazz Chisholm and cleanup hitter Jesus Sanchez. In the aggregated projections, Chisholm and Sanchez rank 1-2 in Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders, with their teammate Bryan De La Cruz coming in just behind them at No. 3. Chisholm has the highest median projection on the entire slate and De La Cruz is coming off a massive series against the Astros in which he went 6-for-11 (.545) with a home run and a .598 wOBA.
Lower in the lineup, you can supplement the Marlins stack with good value options in Xavier Edwards, Vidal Brujan and even recent-acquisition Ali Sanchez as a punt play from behind the plate. Edwards has been especially productive since being called back up, hitting .333 (11-for-33) with two doubles, a stolen base and a .349 wOBA.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
SS Elly De La Cruz ($6,400) Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins (Yonny Chirinos)
It isn’t often that Elly De La Cruz is the “other” De La Cruz mentioned later in our breakdown than Bryan (not related). Elly has the third-highest ceiling projection of all hitters in the blended projections and the fifth-highest ceiling projection. He’s a pricey pay-up play but brings a very high ceiling with the ability to put up fantasy points in multiple ways.
After getting a rest day on Thursday, De La Cruz should be fresh as he looks to continue his recent momentum. He’s hitting .311 (23-for-74) over his last 18 games, with 11 of those 23 hits going for extra bases, including six doubles, three triples, and three home runs. All that extra-base production has given him a .284 wOBA and .412 wOBA over that span, and he’s also added eight stolen bases to help him average 12.3 DraftKings points per game over that span.
His matchup with Yonny Chirinos should be a favorable one since the Marlins righty has let lefties hit .325 against him with a .370 wOBA. The switch-hitting De La Cruz has also been much better at home than on the road, so multiple factors point to him having a big game on Friday night.
2B/OF Dylan Moore ($3,800) Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
The Mariners trounced the Angels 11-0 on Thursday to open this series and have won five of their last seven games. Moore has been hitting in the heart of the order against lefties and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 2B on this slate and the fourth-highest in the outfield as well.
Moore has hit .238 against lefties on the season with three homers and a .329 wOBA. He also has posted much better numbers away from T-Mobile Park, hitting .262 with a .387 road wOBA. Moore didn’t start on Thursday but has hit .250 (11-for-44) over his last 18 games with five stolen bases and six extra-base hits, including two home runs.
While the Mariners don’t normally hit for a good team average, they still rally for big innings due to their power potential. Here’s how they stack up against Anderson and the Angels this Friday in our PlateIQ tool:
3B Ernie Clement ($2,700) Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
Clement has been solid for the Blue Jays since stepping into a larger role after the team moved on from Cavan Biggio and lost Isiah Kiner-Falefa (knee) to injury. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 3B on Friday’s slate and brings great momentum into this favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson.
This season, Clement is hitting .263 with a .306 wOBA after hitting .380 with a .378 wOBA last season with the Jays. He’s found his groove lately, though, hitting .313 (21-for-67) with four home runs and a .380 wOBA over his last 21 games. He homered in two of the three games the Blue Jays just played in San Francisco, producing double-digit DraftKings points in each of the three contests.
Nelson is a good matchup whenever he has pitched at Chase Field this season, giving up a .390 wOBA with an ugly 6.69 ERA and 1.74 home WHIP. The Blue Jays will hope to continue that trend on Friday night, and Clement is a great way to get exposure to their lineup at an affordable salary.
