The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday night brings a jam-packed 13-game main slate of fantasy baseball on DraftKings. It should be a great night of action on the diamond with plenty of different ways to assemble your team. There are just two divisional contests on the board with four interleague matchups, including the two teams from Chicago facing off on the South Side in the White Sox’s first game since firing their manager. Coors Field is also in the mix as the Braves visit the Mile High City to take on the Rockies and try to snap their current five-game skid. Let’s take a look at who the models indicate make sense for Friday night’s contests.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($10,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-185) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Flaherty has had a remarkable bounce-back season and was one of the top starting pitchers moved at the MLB trade deadline. The Dodgers added to their stacked squad by snagging Flaherty in exchange for a pair of prospects. He has the highest ceiling projection of all Friday night’s starters in THE BAT X projections and the third-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. He matches more Pro Trends than any other starting pitcher on the slate and has the second-highest strikeout prediction.
In his one start with the Dodgers, Flaherty gave up five hits in six shutout innings with seven strikeouts and his first LA victory against the Athletics. He earned 27.9 DraftKings points in that contest and has over 21 DraftKings points in four straight starts and 10 of his last 11. In those 11 starts, Flaherty went 8-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 3.05 FIP to go with a 10.8 K/9. He has at least seven strikeouts in four of his last six starts, with 40 strikeouts over 35 innings during that span.
The Pirates are no pushovers, to be sure, but they rank in the bottom 10 of the MLB in runs scored with a .300 team wOBA that is the fifth-lowest in the MLB over the last 30 days. The Pirates also have struggled on the road this season, with just a .294 wOBA and just an 87 wRC+ away from PNC Park.
He’s the most expensive pitcher on a strong slate, but if you have the salary available, Flaherty is a good place to pay up based on his season-long consistency.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Robbie Ray ($8,600) San Francisco Giants (-200) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Ray and the Giants are the heaviest favorites of the night, according to our Vegas Dashboard, just edging out Flaherty and the Dodgers. Ray has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate and the highest ceiling projection of all Friday’s starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on THE BAT X projections and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections. He has the eight-highest salary on the board, but his high upside makes him a great value.
The 32-year-old lefty has been limited to three starts this season after Tommy John surgery last May. He looked sharp during his extended rehab, and in the MLB, he has gone 2-1 with a 4.40 ERA, 6.45 FIP, and 21 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings.
Ray had a season-high nine strikeouts in his last start, producing 26.9 DraftKings points in a win over the Reds. He had that exact same production against the Dodgers in his first game back but struggled a little against the A’s with only 3.8 DraftKings points in his start in between those two impressive performances.
The Tigers should be a good matchup for him on Friday night since they have hit just .234 against lefties with a .292 wOBA that puts them in the bottom 10 in the MLB in the split. Over the last 30 days, the Tigers also rank in the bottom six in the MLB in team batting average and wOBA.
Ray hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Flaherty, but he comes at a reduced salary and brings a high upside with his strikeout ceiling.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Edward Cabrera ($6,600) Miami Marlins (+120) vs. San Diego Padres
Cabrera is a high-risk, high-reward play that makes sense for GPP since he also has produced plenty of strikeouts despite some bumps in the road this season. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections but a very low ownership projection.
On the season, his 5.96 ERA and 5.14 FIP are pretty ugly, but his 11.9 K/9 rate points to his high ceiling. He has been limited to 11 starts due to multiple injuries but has found a nice groove in his last few outings. Since the All-Star break, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, compiling a 2.70 ERA and 4.38 FIP and picking up 22 strikeouts in 20 innings.
He averaged 16.1 DraftKings points per start in those four outings, with his most impressive start coming in his most recent appearance. In that game, he held the Braves scoreless for five innings with eight strikeouts for a season-high 28.3 DraftKings points. He has at least six strikeouts in each of his last three games and at least 13 DraftKings points.
The Padres are usually good at strikeout suppression, but they’re still a solid enough matchup to use Cabrera for GPP lineups, given his recent success and high ceiling. At this salary, even just a solid outing from the young righty would be enough to make him a good value.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points using the aggregate projections belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves will likely be a popular stack at Coors Field, but they’re in a great spot to bounce back after getting swept at home by the Brewers. They’ll face Rockies SP Tanner Gordon, who is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA, 5.89 FIP, and six home runs allowed in his four MLB starts. The young lefty has let right-handed hitters hit .413 against him with an eye-popping .531 wOBA in that small sample size. As a result, stacking Braves righties is a great place to start your lineup on Friday.
Jorge Soler has been atop the Braves lineup since re-joining the team at the trade deadline and has the fourth-highest ceiling projection of all outfielders in the aggregate projections despite only having the 16th-highest salary. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have top-five ceiling projections among all batters.
Even with players getting the typical Coors Field salary inflation, there are some cheaper ways to get exposure as well. Orlando Arcia has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops in the aggregate projections, and righty Adam Duvall has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the entire slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
In this example for Saturday’s slate, we’ll highlight some of the hitters that stand out in the premium add-in of THE BAT X projections.
OF Kyle Schwarber ($5,600) Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
Schwarber seems to always have an insane hot streak in the middle of the summer, and right on schedule, he’s been on a tear over his last 12 games. He has a top-10 median, ceiling, and floor projection of all outfielders on Friday in the aggregate projections, and he should be in a favorable matchup against Nelson and the Dbacks.
Over his last 12 games, Schwarber has eight home runs while going 20-for-45 (.444) with a .652 wOBA and 62.1% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Schwarber had a single, a double, and 12 DraftKings points on Thursday in the first game of the series and has averaged 18.25 DraftKings points per game over those 12 contests.
Schwarber is a strong play against any right-handed pitcher at this point, and he’s in an especially good matchup Friday against Ryne Nelson, who has given up seven of his 10 home runs allowed to left-handed hitters. Nelson has been up-and-down lately, but he has struggled at Chase Field most of the season, where he has a 5.33 home ERA and 1.43 home WHIP.
OF Garrett Mitchell ($2,800) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (Carson Spiers)
The Brewers crushed the Braves in their three-game set to start the week, scoring 34 runs in their three-game road sweep. They’ll look to keep rolling as they come home for a three-game series against their division rivals from Cincinnati, and Mitchell is a great way to get a piece of their productive lineup at a very affordable salary. He has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus of all hitters this Friday.
Mitchell was a top hitting prospect for the Brewers over the last few seasons, but the 25-year-old lefty has only been able to play 27 games this year due to a fractured finger. He didn’t make his season debut until July 1, but he has been making up for lost time. In his last 11 games, he has an impressive .387 batting average with three doubles, a home run, and a 50% hard-hit rate that has led to a .447 wOBA. He homered on Thursday afternoon and has been hitting in the heart of the Brewers’ batting order, batting third in two of their three games in Atlanta.
The Brewers lefties like Mitchell are in an especially strong matchup Friday night against Reds SP Carson Spiers, who has given up a .357 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Here’s how the lineup looks over the last 30 days vs. right-handed pitching via our PlateIQ tool:
2B/SS Brooks Baldwin ($2,600) Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
The White Sox are expected to give their young players plenty of playing time the rest of the way as they play out their dismal season. The 23-year-old Baldwin is one player who should be an interesting DFS play at his price.
He has typically been hitting second in the order and has hit .263 (10-for-38) over his last 10 games after a slow start after being called up. He has one homer and one stolen base during that span and has averaged 6.4 fantasy points per game. In Double-A and Triple-A, Baldwin hit an impressive .324 in 82 games before being called up with eight home runs, 19 doubles, and 17 stolen bases.
In Friday’s matchup with the Cubs, Baldwin has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both 2B and at SS in THE BAT X projections, and he ranks in the top seven at both positions in the FantasyLabs projections as well. His increased opportunity gives him good upside for a player at such a low salary this Friday.
