The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday night’s DFS fantasy baseball slate gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET and includes a solid 20-team player pool. Coors Field will be in play to keep things interesting as the Rockies welcome in the Orioles, and there are several key matchups with the potential to impact playoff races. The Diamondbacks visit the Dodgers in one of the later games in a key NL West matchup that is one of the three divisional games on the schedule. In a key matchup in the AL playoff race, the Astros host the Royals in the second game of their four-game set. Taking a look at those games and all 10 matchups, let’s jump into who our FantasyLabs Models show as the top picks for this Friday.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Framber Valdez ($9,500) Houston Astros (-162) vs. Kansas City Royals
Several strong options will take the hill on Friday, but Valdez stands out based on his recent form. He only has the third-highest salary of the starting pitchers available but brings the second-highest median and ceiling projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He also matches the second-most Pro Trends with the fourth-highest strikeout prediction.
Valdez has only allowed more than three earned runs once in his last 12 outings while going an impressive 8-2 with a 2.62 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 88 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings. He did take the loss in his last start, which was in Baltimore last Saturday, but he hadn’t allowed any runs when he was removed from the game before the bullpen allowed inherited runners to score. In each of his last five home starts, Valdez has put up over 25 DraftKings points while averaging an impressive 31.3 DraftKings points per start.
The Royals are still in the second Wild Card spot and keeping the heat on the Guardians in the A.L. Central, but they have the third-lowest implied run total on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Valdez has proven himself on the big stage in the past, and he should thrive in a playoff environment on Friday night. Even in this less-than-ideal matchup, Valdez has been so good at home lately that he’s a great stud to build around.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tylor Megill ($7,400) New York Mets (-225) at Chicago White Sox
Megill will be making his return to the majors this Friday after spending August in Triple-A. He has a good ceiling against the White Sox, though, and can be an excellent salary-saving option. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all pitchers under $8,000 and the second-highest ceiling projection in that price range in the FantasyLabs projections. In THE BAT X projections, the 29-year-old righty has the highest ceiling projection in that price range, along with the third-highest projected Plus/Minus.
On the season, Megill is 2-5 in 10 MLB games with a 5.17 ERA. His 4.08 FIP indicates he has been a little unlucky at times, and his 10.5 K/9 shows he still brings plenty of punchout potential. In the last month for the Syracuse Mets, Megill turned in an 11-strikeout outing along with allowing no runs with six strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in his most recent outing.
He’s filling in for Paul Blackburn (hand) and isn’t guaranteed a starting spot long-term, but at least for this outing he should return value. Part of his upside is definitely due to his favorable matchup against the White Sox, who have the lowest wOBA in the MLB this season and the fewest runs scored. They have dropped the first seven games of their homestand and are 1-11 in their last 12 games while averaging a meager 2.4 runs per contest.
Megill’s Mets are the second-heaviest favorite on the slate, and the White Sox have the third-lowest implied run total. Even with his uninspiring overall performance this season, Megill should bring good value in his return to the majors in Chicago.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Albert Suarez ($6,200) Baltimore Orioles (-163) at Colorado Rockies
If you’re willing to take the risk and roll with a starter at Coors Field, Suarez looks to have very low ownership even at his reduced salary on Friday. He could be a great source of leverage at only $6,200 with an ownership projection well under 5%.
Suarez has been pitching well for the Orioles, allowing only two runs total over 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts. He hasn’t typically worked late into games but has typically been solid for five or six innings while limiting damage. Before giving up two runs against the Astros last Saturday, he had posted over 20 DraftKings points in three straight starts against the Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox.
The Rockies are a tougher matchup at home than on the road due to the Coors Field factor, but their lineup has been inconsistent even at elevation. While they have gone off for big run totals, they have also been held in check on a regular basis, so Suarez still has enough upside to be a high-risk, high-reward leverage option in Denver.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points and Ceiling using the aggregate projections belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
The Orioles are at Coors Field, so it isn’t surprising that they’re in the top spot in what should be a great spot to score a ton of runs. They’ll face lefty Austin Gomber ($6,500) to start the game and should be able to get back on track after dropping two of three in Los Angeles. Gomber actually has pretty even home-road splits, but he has been much more hittable by righties than lefties. Right-handed hitters have 19 of his 26 home runs allowed and have posted a .343 wOBA against him on the year, while lefties have been held to a .310 wOBA.
In the blended projections, almost all the Orioles are ranked high at their respective positions. Gunner Henderson has the third-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate despite his lefty-lefty matchup to start the game. Adley Rutschman is on the strong side of his splits and has the ceiling, median, and floor projections of all catchers by a wide margin.
Right-handed hitters Eloy Jimenez and Austin Slater provide excellent value in the outfield. Slater has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any hitter on the slate and Jimenez ranks in the top five as well. They’re both extremely cheap given their upside and potential in what should be a very productive lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Julio Rodriguez ($5,100) Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Rodriguez has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters on Friday’s slate, which is a little surprising since he’s a little lower on the salary structure with the 12th-highest salary of all outfielders. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders and the most of any hitter over $4,500.
The Mariners face the Angels, who will call up Samuel Aldegheri from their Double-A affiliate, the Rocket City Trash Pandas. The lefty joined the Halos from the Phillies in the Carlos Estévez trade at the deadline and has compiled a 3.59 ERA in 19 starts across three levels but has never climbed above Double-A.
Rodriguez has hit .280 against lefties this season with a .341 wOBA against southpaws. He hit his 12th homer of the season on Wednesday and has started to show signs of turning things around in a Mariners lineup that desperately needs him to return to his dual-threat superstar status.
3B Josh Jung ($3,700) Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics (J.P. Sears)
Jung has been limited to only 30 games due to injury this season, but he has been starting to find his groove over the last few weeks. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 3B and the highest of any 3B over $3,000.
Last year, the 26-year-old hit .266 with 23 homers and a .334 wOBA. He especially crushed lefties with a .327 batting average and .418 wOBA. He is only hitting .211 against lefties this year, but that’s in only 21 plate appearances, so the sample size is incredibly small.
Jung has hit safely in 11 of his last 13 games with a home run, a double, and a 46.3% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Like Julio, he’s had a tough season overall, but his numbers are starting to show signs of coming around and our projections like him to continue that in Friday’s matchup.
Here’s a look at the rest of the Rangers and how they stack up against the lefty Sears using our PlateIQ tool:.
1B Luken Baker ($2,100) St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees (Marcus Stroman)
If you’re looking for a super-cheap play with a ton of upside, it’s time to buy in on Baker this Friday. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate because of his salary which is barely over the minimum.
He is more than just a punt play, though, despite his ugly .133 batting average in the majors this season. Baker brings some real power upside after hitting 30+ homers in each of the last two years at Triple-A. Before being called up, he hit 32 homers in 108 games this season while posting a .375 wOBA. He has good plate discipline and typically draws plenty of walks, but he also has a high strikeout rate, which keeps his batting average low. In his eight games, he has only gone 2-for-15, but both hits went for extra bases, including a home run. He has added six walks, five RBI and even a stolen base to average DraftKings points per game.
He’ll be in a good spot against Stroman, who has been very hittable at home, surrendering 15 home runs in his 13 starts with a 5.09 ERA and 5.44 FIP in those outings.
