The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
On Friday’s main DFS fantasy baseball slate, 28 of the 30 MLB teams are in the player pool, bringing plenty of potential plays to consider. Only the Reds and Pirates aren’t available with the other 28 teams taking the diamond in the contests that begin at 7:05 p.m. ET. While Coors Field isn’t in play, there are still some great matchups to attack across the schedule. Check out who our FantasyLabs Models show as the top picks for Friday.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($11,100) Atlanta Braves (-272) vs. Washington Nationals
Sale has dominated this season and is the favorite for the NL Cy Young in a remarkable bounce-back performance after his injury-filled last few years in Boston. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all the scheduled starters on Friday in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He also has the highest strikeout prediction, and his Braves are the second-heaviest favorites on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
In each of his last three starts, Sale has had double-digit strikeouts, and he also had 10 strikeouts when he faced Washington earlier this season, earning 28.2 DraftKings points despite taking a hard-luck loss. On the season, he has averaged over 25 DraftKings points per outing with at least that many DraftKings points in nine of his last 12 appearances.
Sale leads the NL with an 11.96 K/9 and is tied for the MLB lead with 14 wins. He’ll go for No. 15 against the Nats, who have the second-lowest ISO and fifth-lowest wOBA in the MLB against left-handed pitchers this season.
On Friday’s slate, Sale is the most expensive SP, but he’s worth paying up for if you can find other spots to save based on his high strikeout ceiling and favorable matchup.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hayden Birdsong ($6,600) San Francisco Giants (+135) at Seattle Mariners
Since being promoted in late June, the 22-year-old Birdsong has had his ups and downs as the Giants’ fifth starter, but he’s a great value play this Friday in a favorable spot against the Mariners. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the fourth-highest in THE BAT X projections.
Birdsong had a couple of rough outings to start August, but he looked much sharper in his most recent start, even though he picked up a third straight defeat. He faced the Athletics last Saturday and went 4 2/3 innings while giving up just one run and getting five strikeouts on his way to 14.9 DraftKings points. Before that recent slide, he showed off a much higher ceiling with back-to-back dominant starts against the Rockies in which he had a total of 20 strikeouts and earned 35.1 and 27.7 DraftKings points.
On the season, Birdsong is 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA, 5.05 FIP and 1.38 WHIP, but his 10.67 K/9 show off his high ceiling when he’s on his game.
He should be in a good spot for a big strikeout performance on Friday as he faces the Mariners, who just fired their manager. The Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB on the season, and since the All-Star break, they have hit an MLB-worst .206 as a team. Seattle hopes new manager Dan Wilson can turn things around, but Birdsong will look to continue their offensive woes for at least one more game.
With so much strikeout potential, Birdsong brings a very high ceiling this Friday, and he’s a very affordable option since there is plenty of risk rolling with the rookie.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
JP Sears ($8,300) Oakland Athletics (+110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Athletics send Sears to the hill on Friday against Milwaukee in a tough matchup, but the lefty still brings a high enough ceiling to be a good leverage play. Sale has a high ownership projection, and even Birdsong will likely be popular since he’s so affordable, but Sears has barely any ownership projection and the highest Leverage in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections.
Sears has been an anchor for the A’s rotation for a second straight season. He has made 25 starts this season, going 10-8 with a 4.15 ERA, 4.42 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. His strikeout rate is slightly down this season, but his numbers across the board have improved. He has done a great job eating innings and has lasted at least seven full innings in each of his last four starts. In those four outings, he has a 1.57 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and 27 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings.
In his last start, Sears had nine strikeouts and 28.5 DraftKings points in a no-decision against the Giants, giving him over 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four outings.
While the Brewers have a comfortable lead in the NL Central and have a strong offense overall, they do lean a little lefty-heavy. As a result, they struggle at times against lefties like Sears. Sears has held lefties to a .217 batting average with a 23.8% K% this season.
The matchup is a tough one, but Sears has more upside than his ownership projections indicate, and he’s a strong leverage consideration if you’re trying to differentiate your lineup with a pitcher with upside.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points and Ceiling using the aggregate projections belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Bronx Bombers are home at Yankee Stadium this weekend as they host the Rockies. They have the highest implied run total and are the heaviest favorites on the slate as they go up against lefty Kyle Freeland ($5,500) in the series opener. Freeland is 3-5 with an ugly 5.97 ERA in his 14 starts this season. He has had some strong outings, but they have ironically mostly been at home at Coors Field. On the road, he has an 8.23 ERA and has given up a .430 wOBA. All 11 of the home runs he has allowed have been hit by right-handed batters, who have a .367 wOBA against him on the season.
Aaron Judge has the highest median and ceiling projection of all hitters in the aggregate projections. He has four home runs in his three games on this homestand and 13 long balls in his last 24 games while hitting .448 (39-for-87) with an amazing .661 wOBA.
While he’s on the wrong side of the splits against Freeland, Juan Soto is still a power option in the outfield, bringing the third-highest ceiling projections of the hitters on this slate. The rest of the Yankees stack includes some value plays, including catcher Jose Trevino and leadoff hitter Gleyber Torres. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also expected to return from IL, so New York should be back at full strength for the weekend.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Parker Meadows ($3,400) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
Meadows has taken over the leadoff spot for the Tigers against righties, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield on Friday. The 24-year-old lefty has battled a couple of different injuries this season but has been fairly productive when available.
Since coming back from his last IL stint, Meadows has hit .352 (19-for-54) with five doubles, two triples, and a home run for a .403 wOBA over 13 games with an at-bat. He has a 39.5% hard-hit rate during that span, per Statcast, and he has multiple hard-hit events in four of his last seven games with an at-bat.
On Friday, Meadows is expected to be in that premium spot at the top of the lineup as the Tigers take on Flexen. The righty has 26 appearances for the White Sox this year with a 5.46 ERA and 5.10 FIP. He has let lefties hit .281 with a .374 wOBA and 12 of his 19 home runs allowed. Meadows, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith are expected to give the Tigers four lefties at the top of their order, and they can be an interesting mini stack, as you can see in our PlateIQ tool:
3B Shay Whitcomb ($2,600) Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (Cade Povich)
Whitcomb has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on Friday’s slate. He’s still very affordable after his call-up earlier this month, and he brings a high upside with both power and speed.
At Triple-A, Whitcomb hit .293 over 108 games with 25 home runs and 26 stolen bases while cutting his K% from 31.1% last year to 19.8% this season. The 25-year-old is still looking for his first homer and first stolen base in the MLB but has not looked overmatched while going 5-for-19 (.263) with a pair of doubles.
On Friday, he’ll likely get a start against left-handed, fellow rookie Cade Povich. Povich has shown upside but has also been hittable, so Whitcomb should be a solid bargain play.
2B Will Wagner ($2,300) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)
Wagner continues to be a great bargain play as well, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate. His salary is barely more than the minimum, even though he’s had success since joining Toronto and is in a favorable matchup.
Wagner actually played with Whitcomb for much of the season in Triple-A for the Sugar Land Cowboys. He was traded to the Blue Jays at the Trade Deadline in the Yusei Kikuchi trade. In his time before the trade, Wagner hit .307 with a .392 wOBA and kept right on cruising after landing with the Buffalo Bison, hitting .400 with a .496 wOBA.
In Toronto, he has gone 11-for-29 (.393) with three doubles, five RBI, and a 56.5% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Since he is hitting the ball so well, he should be able to return value against Kochanowicz, who has given up 16 runs on 27 hits with a 1.65 WHIP over his four MLB starts.
