The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
The first Friday night of the MLB regular season features an eight-game slate starting at 6:50 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($11,000) Atlanta Braves (-272) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Strider is the most expensive pitcher on Friday’s slate by a wide margin, but the Braves’ Ace has the potential to be worth every dollar of his salary in this favorable home matchup against Arizona. Strider has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all starting pitchers on Friday’s slate in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in THE BAT X projections despite his elevated salary.
He’s tied for the most Pro Trends of any scheduled starter and also has the highest strikeout prediction by a wide margin. The Diamondbacks aren’t an easy matchup by any means, but they do have the lowest implied run total of any team on Friday’s slate.
Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season with 20 wins, a 3.86 ERA, a 2.85 FIP, and 13.55 K/9. He was even more dominant at home, where he had a 14.8 K/9 rate and allowed just a .268 wOBA against. Taking the mound for the Braves in their home opener wasn’t the original plan for Strider, but a rainout in Chicago on Wednesday gave him some extra rest and put him in line for this start.
He looked strong against the Phillies in his first start of the season with eight strikeouts in five innings and cruised through Spring Training, allowing only two runs in 22 2/3 innings with 35 strikeouts. His punchouts make the elitest of starting pitching plays, and this is a favorable spot for him to deliver another great performance.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Griffin Canning ($7,000) Los Angeles Angels (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox
Both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections have Canning as the best value starting pitcher on the board. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the best Pts/Sal of all the options at the position in both sets of projections.
The righty has the third-highest ceiling projection on THE BAT X, along with the fourth-highest strikeout prediction. Since his salary is only the 10th-highest of the 14 starting pitchers on the slate, he brings a much higher upside than his pricing indicates.
Canning didn’t have a great start to the year in a tough road matchup in Baltimore. He gave up three runs in five innings and started the sixth by letting two runners on base who eventually came around to score. He only finished with 0.5 DraftKings points but some of that was due to some bad luck. Last year, Canning showed much more upside with a 4.32 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 24 starts. He only went 7-8 but had a strong 9.9 K/9, which rose to 10.4 K/9 in his 58 innings at home.
In Spring Training, Canning had 18 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings while allowing seven earned runs. If a few more things break his way on Friday against the Red Sox, he should be able to bounce back as a good value option. The Red Sox rank in the top five teams so far this season in K% and have a 0.96 ISO, which is second-lowest in the league.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($8,300) Cincinnati Reds (-127) vs. New York Mets
The Hunter Greene experience is consistently inconsistent, which makes him a great option for GPP but a risky play in cash contests. Greene always has a high ceiling and can pile up strikeouts for massive totals when he’s on his game, but he still has a lot of growing to do.
The 24-year-old has filthy stuff and regularly hits triple-digits on the radar gun but continues to struggle with consistency and control. In his first start of the year against the Nationals, he needed 100 pitches to get through only 4 2/3 innings. While he did get seven strikeouts and 17 swinging strikes, showing how good his stuff was, he also issued four walks and allowed two runs.
This matchup should be in Greene’s favor as he faces the struggling Mets. They did finally get a win on Thursday in the second game of their doubleheader but have hit just .188 as a team with a .251 wOBA which is the lowest of any team in the Majors.
Last season, Greene had a 12.2 K/9 rate and stacked up 19 strikeouts in 15 innings in Spring Training, showing he still has big-time strikeout potential. However, he did also have 10 walks this spring. If he can get his electric stuff under control, he’ll be worth way more than his $8,300 salary that gives him a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves should have no trouble giving Strider run support in their home opener. They are the heaviest favorites on the slate and have the highest implied run total as they take on hittable lefty Tommy Henry ($6,000). Henry allowed five runs on six hits in four innings to the Rockies in his first start of the year.
The Braves do offer some value lower in their lineup with Michael Harris and Adam Duvall, but any stack starts with the two big and expensive bats at the top of the order. Ronald Acuña Jr. has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters on the slate in both FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He has started the season 6-for-19 (.316) with one stolen base and should be hyped to be home, where he hit .342 with a .438 wOBA and 176 wRC+ last season.
Alongside Acuña and usually batting right behind him, Ozzie Albies is a great option in the stack since he’s off to a fast start, going 7-for-20 (.350) with a double, a stolen base and two home runs in his first five games this season. Albies is also always a great option against left-handed pitchers. The switch-hitter hit .391 against southpaws last season with a .433 wOBA and 174 wRC+.
There are multiple ways you can go in the rest of your roster after Acuña-Albies, but those two should be locked in. Just look how impressive the Braves look in the PlateIQ tool:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
C J.T. Realmuto ($4,400) Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
The Phillies are very familiar with the Nets, and they’ll open this weekend’s series facing veteran lefty Patrick Corbin. There are several Phillies batters with good histories against Corbin, and Realmuto projects to be a great option at catcher, which can sometimes be a tricky spot to fill on some slates.
Realmuto has gone 11-for-32 (.344) with two doubles and two homers against Corbin in their past meetings. The 33-year-old backstop has started the season strong, going 5-for-18 (.278) with a home run. He also had a pair of homers in Spring Training and looks to be in good form in the early part of the season.
Realmuto has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest at catcher in the aggregated projections.
3B Anthony Rendon ($3,300) Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
Rendon has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in the aggregated projections and the top of all players at his position. Rendon has typically been hitting leadoff in the lineup for the Angels this season, which gives him more chances for at-bats and run production.
The last two seasons have been dismal for Rendon, who has been limited to under 50 games in each season by multiple injuries. He’s still searching for his first hit of the season after going 0-for-19 in his first five games. This matchup against Kutter Crawford ($8,400) should be a good bounce-back spot for him, though, and our projections give him a good chance to get rolling.
At this bargain salary, he definitely brings good potential from the leadoff spot while leaving you space for the Braves stack or other stars you want to build around.
OF Stuart Fairchild ($3,000) Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
Fairchild starts the season in an outfield platoon with left-handed hitting Jake Fraley, but he should start on Friday against lefty Jose Quintana. Fairchild hit .228 last year in 97 games with a .312 wOBA, five home runs, and 10 stolen bases.
The 28-year-old righty had a big Spring Training, going 14-for-42 (.333) with three home runs and four stolen bases to show he has both power and speed upside. He started two games this season against lefties and hit safely in both starts, going 3-for-8 with a run scored and two stolen bases.
Fairchild should continue to bring good potential whenever he’s in the Reds’ lineup in favorable matchups against lefties. He has the fourth-highest Pts/Sal of outfielders in the FantasyLabs projections and ranks in the top 10 of THE BAT X projections at the position as well. Dominic Fletcher of the White Sox and Johan Rojas of the Phillies are cheaper punt plays, but I prefer paying up a little more to get Fairchild in a more productive spot.
