The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Schwellenbach ($9,800) Atlanta Braves (-242) vs. Miami Marlins
It’s hard to imagine a season starting worse than it has for the Braves. Through their first seven contests, they officially have more PED suspensions (one) than wins (zero). It’s not what was expected for a team that was believed to have as much talent as any team not named the Dodgers.
However, the issues have been much more with the hitting than with the pitching. Schwellenbach threw six scoreless frames in his first start of the year; the team just didn’t give him any run support. He continued to make a case for being one of the best young pitchers in baseball after posting a 3.35 ERA in his first taste of major league action last year.
Schwellenbach has the clear top Vegas data among Friday’s starters. He’s the biggest favorite of the day at -242, and his 3.0 opponent implied team total is the top mark on the slate by nearly a full run. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and salaries have averaged 20.24 DraftKings points per game, good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.70 (per the Trends tool).
Schwellenbach didn’t have the strikeout pitch working in his first start of the year, but that should change on Friday. He averaged better than a strikeout an inning last season, and the Marlins had an above-average strikeout rate against right-handers last year. They’re 12th in strikeout rate in that split so far this season, and Schwellenbach owns the top K Prediction on the slate.
The Braves aren’t going to continue to struggle forever, and this seems like a perfect spot for them to pick up their first win of the year. That makes Schwellenbach the best combination of safety and upside.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Brandon Pfaadt ($7,200) Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) at Washington Nationals
Pfaadt has long been considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He was the No. 19 prospect overall per FanGraphs in 2023, but he’s struggled to put it all together consistently at the MLB level. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, but they’re often followed by stretches of ineptitude.
Pfaadt’s numbers from last year don’t jump off the page, but he definitely got a bit unlucky. His traditional ERA was nearly a full run higher than his xERA and FIP, mostly due to an inflated BABIP and low strand rate. With some better luck in those departments this season, he could be poised for a breakout.
Pfaadt wasn’t particularly impressive in his first start this season, but that came against the Cubs. His matchup vs. the Nationals should be a lot friendlier. Washington was 21st in wRC+ vs. right-handers last season, and while they’ve been better in that split to start this season, they’ve struck out at an alarming rate. They’ve whiffed in 29.7% of their at-bats vs. right-handers through their first six games, which is the fourth-highest mark in baseball.
Pfaadt’s Vegas data in this contest is also solid. His 4.0 opponent implied team total is tied for the third-lowest on the slate, and he’s the second-largest favorite at -144. That gives him solid win expectancy as long as he makes it through five innings.
Add it all up, and this is a young pitcher we want to be buying in on, especially in a good matchup.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) at Philadelphia Phillies
Yamamoto would typically be in the same tier as Schwellenbach, but he draws a significantly tougher matchup on Friday. He’s taking on the Phillies, and as a result, his opponent implied team total sits at 3.9 runs. That makes him more of a GPP pivot than a cash game target. Still, Yamamoto is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, particularly from a strikeout standpoint. He’s racked up 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings through his first two starts, so he has as much upside as anyone. Pitching for the best team in baseball doesn’t hurt, either.
Gavin Williams ($7,900) Cleveland Guardians (-118) at Los Angeles Angels
Williams isn’t someone who will typically get a ton of attention, but he quietly posted a 3.67 FIP and 9.36 K/9 in 2024. He’s also just 25 years old, so he could continue to progress as a starter. He’s definitely in play on Friday against the Angels, who are expected to be one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. They’re 28th in wRC+ against right-handers to start the year, and they’re implied for just 4.0 runs in this contest. It’s ultimately close between Williams and Pfaadt for the top value designation, and both players are viable SP2s.
Max Meyer ($7,400) Miami Marlins (+197) at Atlanta Braves
While the Braves are going to break out at some point, there’s no guarantee it will happen on Friday. Meyer is a talented young pitcher, and he put that on display in his first start of the year. He racked up seven strikeouts across 5.2 innings of one-run ball, albeit against a weak Pirates’ offense. He’ll face a stiff step up in competition on Friday – at least theoretically – but he has as much upside as anyone in this price range.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Another reason to like Pfaadt on Friday? His offense is expected to do damage. The Diamondbacks have been red-hot offensively to start the year, averaging more than six runs per game, and they lead the slate with a 4.6 implied team total on Friday.
They’re facing right-hander Jake Irvin, who is an extremely exploitable pitcher. He managed to survive in his first start of the season, allowing just two runs over five innings, but things could’ve gone so much worse. His xERA was over nine in that outing, and he surrendered tons of loud contact. If he doesn’t pitch better moving forward, he’s not going to be nearly as fortunate.
The Diamondbacks’ lineup also features a bunch of players who are capable of doing damage vs. right-handers (via Plate IQ):
However, there are a few downsides with this stack. For starters, their top five hitters are all pretty expensive, which is going to make it tough to get to Schwellenbach as your top starter. The gap between Schwellenbach and the rest of the field feels pretty wide on Friday, so that’s a tough sacrifice to make.
Additionally, most of the Diamondbacks’ top hitters are expected to carry significant ownership. Only Josh Naylor is projected for less than 13.4%, and even projected No. 6 hitter Pavin Smith is at 15.1%. That doesn’t mean you can’t still play them – after all, they’re the top projected stack for a reason – but it does mean you should look to differentiate your lineup with some of your other selections.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Matt Olson 1B ($4,800) Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins (Max Meyer)
The Braves are the other squad with a 4.6 implied total on this slate. Despite their offensive woes to start the year, this is still one of the best offenses in baseball on paper. They have a number of batters who can do damage offensively, and Olson is near the top of that list.
Even though he hasn’t had great results to start the year, he continues to make elite contact. He already has five barrels, and his .694 xSLG suggests that the power is coming eventually. His price tag is also down to $4,800, making him – and the rest of the Braves’ offense – a strong buy-low target.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B ($2,700) Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (Tyler Alexander)
The Reds are not a team that typically garners a ton of attention on the road. The Great American Ballpark is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball, especially from a home run standpoint. Their batters can become overpriced when they go on the road because their numbers get inflated at home.
That said, Encarnacion-Strand’s price tag is clearly not inflated at $2,700. He broke out in his first taste of MLB action in 2013, launching 13 homers in just 63 big league games. His numbers took a step back last season, but he dealt with a wrist injury that sapped most of his power. He looked rejuvenated in spring training this season, and he’s already hit one homer so far this season.
CES is the rare right-handed batter who hasn’t fared particularly well against southpaws throughout his career, but there’s no reason to expect that to continue. Tyler Anderson is also just an opener for the Brewers, so there’s a chance that most of his at-bats come against traditional pitchers anyway.
Tommy Edman ($4,700) Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (Jesus Luzardo)
Edman is far from the biggest name in the Dodgers’ lineup, but he’s expected to bat third for the team on Friday. That puts him directly behind Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts and ahead of Teoscar Hernandez, and it’s hard to ask for a better gig than that.
Edman has also been extremely productive this season, getting at least one hit in every game. That includes four homers.
Edman will also be facing a southpaw on Friday, and he’s a switch-hitter who has historically fared much better in that split. He owns a career 125 wRC+ vs. left-handers, and he’s at a massive 234 so far this season. With eligibility at both middle infield spots, he’s a pretty affordable way to get exposure to the best team in the league.
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