The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
The MLB has 13 games on this Friday night’s slate, which gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. With all but four teams in the player pool, there are plenty of options to choose from as you build your fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,800) Baltimore Orioles (-277) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Orioles are the heaviest favorites of the day as they host the Athletics, who also have the lowest implied run total on the slate. Burnes has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all starting pitchers in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections, and he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the 26 starting pitchers in both sets of projections.
Burnes is only the third-most expensive starting pitcher on the board, but he has a much more favorable matchup than Aaron Nola and Zac Gallen. The O’s new ace has gone 3-0 in his first five starts, posting a 2.76 ERA and 3.45 FIP. He has 29 strikeouts in his 29 1/3 innings overall and 19 strikeouts in his 16 2/3 innings at home. He has averaged 20.4 DraftKings points per outing with two ceiling games over 27 DraftKings points.
In his last start, Burnes got the win despite giving up three runs in 5 2/3 innings. On the surface, that’s not great, but he was cruising through five scoreless innings with a comfortable lead before giving up a three-run homer.
He has the highest strikeout forecast and matches the most Pro Trends on Friday’s slate, partly due to his great matchup against Oakland. The A’s have the second-highest K% in the MLB at 27.4%, and they have hit just .201 with a .277 wOBA on the season. Only the White Sox have a lower team batting average, and the A’s rank in the bottom five in the MLB in wOBA, runs scored, home runs, and stolen bases.
In this favorable spot, Burnes is clearly the best stud starting pitcher on Friday’s slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bailey Ober ($6,800) Minnesota Twins Blue Jays (-115) at Los Angeles Angels
Ober is an extremely cheap option at under $7,000 on DraftKings this Friday, and he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all the starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections. In THE BAT X projections, Ober has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
In his first start of the year, Ober had a disastrous outing in Kansas City against the Royals, giving up three home runs and nine runs while recording only four outs. Since then, though, the 28-year-old righty has settled into a great groove. He started two games against the Tigers and one against the Dodgers and has allowed only two runs in 17 innings while racking up 16 strikeouts. Over those three games, he posted a 1.06 ERA and 1.79 FIP while holding opponents to a 31.0% hard-hit rate, per Statcast.
That first start looks to be an outlier for Ober, who should be in a good spot to keep things rolling against the Angels. The Angels have lost six of their last seven games and have been held to two runs or fewer in four of those games. They rank in the top 10 in K% in the MLB and the bottom 12 in wOBA.
Playing Ober at under $7,000 should leave you plenty of salary to stack big bats on the rest of your roster.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Gil ($7,800) New York Yankees (-130) at Milwaukee Brewers
Gil brings the kind of upside to target in GPP play even if it comes with some extra risk. Gil has the second-highest strikeout prediction on this slate behind only Burnes, and he has the third-highest ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs projections behind just Burnes and Gallen.
In his last start, Gil flashed his impressive ceiling with 31.8 DraftKings points against the Rays. He got his first win of the season by allowing just one unearned run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts. On the season, Gil has 29 strikeouts in his 19 2/3 innings.
The problem holding Gil back from being a more reliable fantasy option is his control issues. In his 19 2/3 innings, he has handed out 17 walks. That walk rate both creates base runners and drives up his pitch count. As a result, he hasn’t made it through the sixth inning in any start yet this season. The Brewers are a fairly neutral matchup overall, but they are pretty patient, so Gil will have to be more accurate if he wants to reach his high ceiling again.
His upside is worth the shot in GPPs, but the control concerns are also legitimate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are tied with the Rangers for the highest implied run total on Friday’s slate, and they make a great stack against lefty Logan Allen as they start their home series against the Guardians. The 25-year-old is 3-0 on the season but has a 5.06 ERA and 5.50 FIP with just a 7.1 K/9 and a 41.0% hard-hit rate allowed.
The Braves typically pound lefties, and they activated lefty-killer Ozzie Albies (toe) after missing 11 days. Albies’ salary is under $5,000 for his return, and he forms a dynamic 1-2 punch with Ronald Acuña Jr. Acuña still has just one homer on the season, but he has 11 stolen bases. Five of those steals have come in his last 10 games in which he has averaged 11.6 DraftKings points per game. Acuña has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all hitters in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections.
Another solid part of the stack is Marcell Ozuna, who has hit two of his nine home runs against lefties and has a .463 wOBA in the split. The slugger has hit .372 at home with a .478 wOBA at home this season. As you build your stack, you may want to avoid lefties, since Allen has held lefties to a .208 batting average and .294 wOBA in his career.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
2B/SS Mookie Betts ($6,600) Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt)
Mookie continues to be a great fantasy option in almost every game while hitting atop one of the best lineups in baseball. He has the top projections at both 2B and SS and can fill either of those sometimes-tricky spots with elite upside.
Betts comes into this matchup with the Blue Jays riding a modest five-game hitting streak. Over that span, he went 9-for-19 (.474) with three doubles, three walks, and three stolen bases for an average of 14.4 DraftKings points per game. He is averaging 13.0 DraftKings points per game on the season and leads the Majors with a .374 batting average and 27 runs scored.
Betts has a .295 career batting average in 49 games at Rogers Centre with 10 home runs. His power numbers have dropped a little bit recently, but he’s still a great pay-up play to consider.
OF Heston Kjerstad ($2,600) Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics (Ross Stripling)
The Orioles lineup brings some nice value and good upside against veteran righty Ross Stripling. Stripling has lost all five of his starts this season and given up 12 runs on 22 hits in his last three games.
Kjerstad is a great way to get a high ceiling for a player under $3,000. He has elite power potential and was crushing the ball in Triple-A before getting called up on Tuesday. The lefty sat out Wednesday against a left-handed starting pitcher, but he should be back in action on Friday at home. He ranks in the top 10 in Pts/Sal in the outfield in the aggregated projections and brings very nice salary relief.
In 21 games at Triple-A, Kjerstad went 30-for-86 (.349) and ten of those 30 hits were home runs, helping him to a .395 ISO and .489 wOBA. He also stole a base, so he brings some speed potential as well. The 25-year-old lefty has a high ceiling as the latest of the Orioles’ top prospects to join the lineup.
Check out how solid the O’s lineup looks against Stripling in our PlateIQ tool:
OF Addison Barger ($2,000) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Gavin Stone)
Barger is even cheaper than Kjerstad and comes at the minimum salary as his Blue Jays host the Dodgers. He has the highest Pts/Sal of all hitters in the aggregated projections and is in the top 10 in the outfield in Projected Plus/Minus as well.
Coming into the season, Barger was ranked as the No. 6 prospect in the Blue Jays’ system. He made his MLB debut on Wednesday but went 0-for-4 against the Royals. Like Kjerstad, he’ll be looking to carry over his minor league success. In his 19 games with the Buffalo Bison in Triple-A, he hit .314 with three home runs and a .448 wOBA. He has done a better job of getting on base throughout his rise through the minors than Kjerstad but doesn’t offer the same elite power or speed upside. Still, at only $2,000, he is a low-risk play with good upside if he’s in the lineup again for Toronto on Friday night in what would be his first home game in the MLB.
