The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
The MLB has 10 games on Friday night’s slate, as the fourth weekend of the regular season gets started with a great slate of action that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($8,900) Minnesota Twins (-149) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Twins and Tigers split a four-game series last weekend in Detroit and will meet this weekend in Minneapolis for a three-game rematch. Joe Ryan had a great start during that series last week but is still in search of his first win of the season. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in THE BAT X and the fourth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
Ryan will look to pick up where he left off last Saturday against the Tigers. He went six innings and had 12 strikeouts on his way to 31.3 DraftKings points. He gave up three runs (just one earned) and finished with a no-decision. Ryan allowed three runs or fewer in all three of his starts and has totaled an impressive 24 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings. In his three starts, he has averaged 22.3 DraftKings points without the added four-point win bonus.
On Friday’s slate, Ryan has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction, but he has shown that he can dominate this Detroit lineup and get plenty of whiffs. He posted a strong 3.83 ERA and 3.04 FIP with a 12.13 K/9 last season at home, so he’s a strong play at Target Field this Friday night in his rematch with the Tigers.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Yariel Rodriguez ($5,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-102) at San Diego Padres
Rodriguez is the cheapest probable starter on Friday’s slate by a wide margin, but he comes with a very nice ceiling in his second MLB start. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in THE BAT X projections. He is also tied for the most Pts/Sal in the FantasyLabs pitcher projections with Dean Kremer, who brings more risk.
The 27 year old from Cuba did not pitch competitively in 2023 but still received a five-year, $32-million contract from the Blue Jays. He has impressed in his limited work this season and has shown good upside. In Triple-A, he allowed one hit in 6 1/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts before being called up to make his MLB debut last Saturday. He went 3 2/3 against the Rockies with six strikeouts and finished with 14.7 DraftKings points in a no-decision.
The Blue Jays will have to continue to monitor his pitch count and workload, so he may not be ready to pitch deep into games yet, but at this salary, his strikeout potential gives him a high enough ceiling to be worth a look at only $5,000. His earning around 15 DraftKings points would be like Ryan earning around 27 DraftKings points on a per-dollar basis, and you can beef up the rest of your roster with the savings.
Rolling with Rodriguez gives you plenty of salary to build a power-packed lineup or use any stack on the slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Triston McKenzie ($8,700) Cleveland Guardians (-174) vs. Oakland Athletics
McKenzie has a very high ceiling in this great home matchup against the Athletics, but his recent form does make him a little high-risk and best reserved for GPP play. McKenzie has the third-highest ceiling projection and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections. He has the second-highest strikeout prediction on the slate behind only Freddy Peralta ($9,500) and matches four Pro Trends, which is tied for the second-most on the slate.
The Athletics have the third-lowest implied run total on the slate behind only the Mets and the Tigers (going against Joe Ryan). Oakland’s offense has the second-highest K% in the MLB this season and the third-lowest team batting average at just .209. The A’s also rank in the bottom five in team wOBA, ISO and wRC+. They should prove a great bounce-back matchup for McKenzie.
His last start was pretty ugly. McKenzie only made it four innings at home against the Yankees, allowing six runs and six walks while only picking up one strikeout. He finished with -5 DraftKings points in that outing, and it was his second of three starts that resulted in a negative fantasy output. He’s high risk since he only has five strikeouts in his 13 innings this season.
He did look sharp in one of those three outings, though, posting 16.6 DraftKings points while holding the White Sox to three hits in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. He could have another outing like that in his similarly soft matchup. McKenzie was excellent in 2022, going 11-11 with a 2.96 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 8.94 K/9 in 31 starts. He was limited by injury last year, and after his rough start to this season, he remains a boom-or-bust play. The upside is definitely there Friday, but the concerns are also obvious.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The top five in the Braves lineup can be an excellent stack, as the Braves come home after their trip to Houston to face the other team from Texas, the Rangers. On Friday, they’ll go against lefty Andrew Heaney ($6,500), who has gone 0-2 in three starts this season with 11 runs allowed in 12 innings. Heaney has actually struggled with lefties, letting them go 4-for-8 with a home run against him in the small sample size this season. Last year as well, he gave up a higher average and wOBA to lefties than righties, so it isn’t a lefty-lefty matchup you have to totally avoid.
In this matchup, the Braves are the heaviest favorites on the board and have the third-highest implied run total on the slate.
Ronald Acuña has the highest median and ceiling projections of all hitters in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He hit his first homer of the season on Wednesday in Houston and has seven stolen bases in his last eight games.
Orlando Arcia is another key to a Braves’ stack since he’s a little cheaper but is hitting an NL-leading .377 with eight doubles and a .419 wOBA over his first 17 games this season. Marcell Ozuna has also been hot to start this season and has eight home runs along with his .352 batting average and .485 wOBA.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
2B/SS Mookie Betts ($6,600) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
The Dodgers host the Mets this weekend, and the offense always brings plenty of high-ceiling options led by Mookie Betts. Betts has the fourth-highest ceiling projection of all hitters in the aggregated projections and the highest at both 2B and SS. His versatility at two sometimes-tricky positions to fill makes him even more valuable.
Betts lost his eight-game hitting streak on Wednesday when he went 0-for-4 in Washington, but during that streak, he went 11-for-36 (.389) with a .434 wOBA, a home run, six runs scored, and two stolen bases.
He has a .369 batting average in his 21 games this season with six home runs, three stolen bases, and an average of 13.2 DraftKings points per game. He has been especially effective against lefties, so this matchup with Manaea should be a good one for him to again deliver a big number.
OF Jonatan Clase ($2,900) Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies (Dakota Hudson)
The Mariners lineup hasn’t been a great source of fantasy goodness for most of the season, but they are definitely worth checking out this weekend as they head to Coors Field to face the Rockies. They have gotten a spark recently from top prospect Jonatan Clase, who has already made a splash in his three games since arriving in the majors earlier this week.
Clase has the third-highest ceiling projection of all the hitters with salaries under $5,000 and the highest of all players under $4,000 even though his salary is all the way under $3,000. Clase also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate.
Since joining the MLB team, Clase is 2-for-11 (.182) with a stolen base, two RBI, and a double. He has averaged 7.0 DraftKings points per game and has given the Mariners lineup a nice spark. He showed impressive upside in the minors last year, producing 20 home runs and 79 stolen bases in 129 games across High-A and Double-A.
While Coors Field is always a big boost to offenses, the elevation inflation may be counteracted a little bit on Friday since it’s expected to be in the 40s. Clase should be able to produce even if the ball isn’t flying out of the yard since he has so much speed potential as well. Here’s what the Mariners lineup looks like in our PlateIQ tool for Friday’s matchup in Denver.
2B Michael Massey ($2,900) Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)
Massey is another solid play under $3,000. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 2B on Friday’s slate and will likely have low ownership since he’ll be making his season debut.
The Royals’ left-handed hitting 2B has been sidelined due to a lower-back injury. Last season, he hit .229 with 15 homers, six stolen bases, and a .283 wOBA. All 15 of his homers came against right-handed pitchers like Kremer, and he posted a .288 wOBA in that split.
Even though he hasn’t played in the majors this season, he comes in with good form after going 13-for-30 (.433) with five doubles, two home runs, and a .540 wOBA in his seven rehab games in Triple-A. If he can carry over that success against Kremer, he could be a great leverage play at an affordable price on Friday.
