The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($9,800) Atlanta Braves (-202) vs. Boston Red Sox
Chris Sale heads into this matchup against his former team with excellent numbers on the season. His underlying metrics are actually somewhat better than his 3.44 ERA, and he has an excellent 29% strikeout rate that’s also due for some positive regression — at least based on his 15.3% swinging strike rate.
There’s also good news on the Vegas front, with Boston implied for the second lowest team total on the slate at just 3.6 runs. That says a lot about the market’s thoughts on Sale given that Boston is a slightly above-average offense as a team this year. They’ve been even better against lefties, too, with a notable caveat.
That would be their strikeout rate. They lead the league with the highest K rate against southpaws, at a whopping 29.5%. That gives Sale massive upside in this matchup and the highest K prediction in our models.
While other viable options mean he’s not quite a “no brainer,” Sale is still clearly the top play on the board. He leads the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for median and ceiling today.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Chris Paddack ($6,500) Minnesota Twins (-110) vs. Seattle Mariners
Just like his teammate Bailey Ober yesterday and Sale today, the big selling point for Paddack is in the high strikeout rate of his opponent. The Mariners lead the league against righties with a 29% mark, getting punched out seven times by Ober yesterday.
Paddack’s numbers aren’t quite as good as Ober’s, but they’re reasonably close. Ober has a 24.3% strikeout rate (though it jumped considerably thanks to last night) compared to just 19% for Paddack. However, Paddack’s career numbers are somewhat better, which suggests he should be too.
Seattle is implied for a fairly meager 3.8 run total, so Paddack can pay off his salary even without a big strikeout number. That gives him an excellent combination of safety and upside that makes him a strong option in cash games and GPPs alike.
His ownership projection is somewhat high but not unreasonable, and he leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Spencer Arrighetti ($6,300) Houston Astros (+126) at New York Yankees
Arrighetti isn’t projecting well today, and he has a very tough matchup with the elite Yankees offense. I’m considering him only for large-field GPPs where we need to take swings at some thinner players. With that said, he’s been way better than his numbers suggest.
The rookie comes into the game with a dreadful 8.27 ERA, but his xERA and FIP are both in the low threes. His strikeout rate is a solid 25.9%, but his swinging strike rate of 14.2% projects for a strikeout rate closer to 30%.
Both of these mean he’s due for some major positive regression. We saw a bit of it in his last start against Cleveland, where Arrighetti allowed two runs over 5.2 innings while striking out six. Obviously the Yankees are a tougher matchup, but there have been signs of life.
Given his salary, he could give up a few runs and still pay off with a solid strikeout number, so he’s worth some GPP sprinkles.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s fortunately not the Giants again today, as they’ve let us down thus far in their series at Coors Field. Instead, we get Arizona, a considerably better offense playing in nearly as favorable of a stadium.
Great American Ball Park is the next best thing to Coors Field, with an excellent Park Factor of 80 for hitters. The Diamondbacks put up six runs here last night and are implied for a strong 4.8 today against Graham Ashcraft ($8,300) and the Reds.
Ashcraft has been solid this year, but he’s not exactly a pitcher we’re going out of our way to avoid, especially at these price tags, which have Arizona far too cheap for their implied total.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Spencer Steer OF ($5,000) Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery)
Obviously, the Reds get to play in Cincinnati today too. They get a nice matchup with lefty Jordan Montgomery ($7,700), who comes into the game with a 5.63 ERA that might be generous. He’s striking out fewer than 12% of the batters he faces, with a very lucky .269 BABIP.
Since he’s a lefty, I used PlateIQ to look for the best one-off options on the Reds:
Steer immediately stands out, though there’s a few other Cincinnati hitters worth considering.
Thairo Estrada 2B ($4,100) San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (Peter Lambert)
We should still keep an eye on the Giants today, even if we aren’t especially interested in a full stack. While they don’t have any huge power hitters in their lineup (the team leaders are tied with just five on the season), Estrada has decent power.
His hard hit, fly-ball, and barrel rates are all up relative to his career average, but he has a mediocre 14.3% home run/fly ball ratio. Part of that is due to the tough hitting conditions in his home ballpark, so a trip to Colorado could do him some good.
Ryan Mountcastle 1B ($4,700) Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)
The Orioles are another team worth paying attention to today thanks to an excellent 4.9-run implied total on the road in Washington. Obviously we prefer to stack visiting teams since the guaranteed ninth inning at-bats are valuable.
They have an interesting matchup with rookie lefty Mitchell Parker ($8,500). Parker has a 2.53 ERA through four big league starts, with excellent underlying numbers. However, he projected as a below-average MLB starter, so he might not be that good.
Mountcastle rakes lefties, with a .311 batting average and .958 OPS this season. That makes him my first choice among the Orioles, though I’m interested in full stacks as well.
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