The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Framber Valdez ($8,800) Houston Astros (-247) vs. Oakland A’s
The price is right on Valdez today considering he has by far the best Vegas data on this somewhat small slate. The visiting A’s have a slate-low 3.4-run implied total, while Valdez and the Astros are the heaviest favorites at -247.
Valdez is also one of just two pitchers with a K Prediction over 6 in our models today, so he has plenty of upside as well. He has a sub-20% strikeout rate on the year but is due for some regression thanks to a 10.8% swinging strike rate.
Oakland’s offense is somewhat better than their reputation, with a roughly average wRC+. However, their top-five strikeout rate certainly helps Valdez’s projection in that department. I’d expect to pay around $10,000 for a pitcher with his numbers today, so getting him at $8,800 is a solid value.
Valdez leads the slate in median and ceiling projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections. He’s a strong play for GPPs and cash games alike.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Griffin Canning ($5,500) Los Angeles Angels (+100) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
There’s essentially two options for spend-down pitchers today. One is Ryan Yarbrough ($5,200) of the Dodgers. Yarbrough is making his first start of the season tonight, though one third of his relief appearances have gone at least four innings. On a per-inning basis he’s clearly the better play, but it’s unclear how the Dodgers plan to use him, especially after he threw on Saturday and Sunday.
The other option is Canning. We know the hope for Canning is a traditional starter’s workload — assuming he can remain effective that long. Canning has a 5.75 ERA on the year, though his underlying numbers are about a run better.
Of course, the matchup certainly helps Canning. St. Louis is a bottom-five offense on the year, and much of that number came before an injury took out their best hitter. They’re effectively even worse than their 90 wRC+ implies.
Of the two cheap options, I prefer Canning for cash games. His upside is somewhat limited since he’s not a high-strikeout pitcher, but at least we can be reasonably confident in his workload. For GPPs I prefer Yarbrough — he’s the better player, and the upside is there if he has a long enough leash.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Pablo Lopez ($9,800) Minnesota Twins (135) vs. New York Yankees
All else being equal, I’d much rather roster Lopez than Valdez in DFS. He’s averaging about six more points per game, with a strikeout rate above 30% and a 3.89 ERA on the season.
Of course, all else is not equal. Lopez draws a difficult matchup with the Yankees, the number-two overall offense in baseball. New York is implied for 3.9 runs, with Minnesota as only a slight moneyline favorite. On the other hand, Minnesota being favored at all and the Yankees’ total coming in below four speaks to Lopez’s ability.
He has the third-best odds to win the AL Cy Young this year according to the futures market, and he has been considerably better than his ERA. The matchup might not be as bad as it appears on first glance, either. The Yankees have been much worse against lefties, ranking 15th in wRC+ as a team.
Lopez trails only Valdez in median and ceiling projection today, with considerably lower ownership projections. That makes him my favorite pay-up option for tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
There’s never really a bad time to stack the Braves. Their stacked lineup has underperformed in recent weeks, but their hitters have excellent track records and will certainly recover in the near future.
Today’s an especially strong time to look to Atlanta though. Other top offenses like the Dodgers and Yankees have tough pitching matchups, while the Braves draw Javier Assad ($7,700). Assad has an excellent 1.70 ERA, but his SIERA and xFIP are both over 4.00.
The wind in Chicago is also blowing out to left field at Wrigley, which should be a boost to offense in this game.
Having a pair of cheap pitching options also makes it easy to afford Atlanta today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brent Rooker OF ($4,200) Oakland A’s at Houston AStros (Framber Valdez
Given the huge ownership projection on Valdez, it makes sense to roster hitters against him in GPPs. Oakland has been solid against lefties in general, but I used PlateIQ to see if specific hitters are driving that.
Rooker clearly stands out along with Tyler Nevin ($3,400). Rooker has been awesome this year, with a 1.007 OPS overall, and ten home runs on the season. I’ll be pairing him and Nevin together in my GPP entries that fade Valdez.
Lars Nootbar OF ($3,900) St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)
If Canning catches some steam as a popular salary saver, it’s also worth looking to roster hitters against him. The Cardinals don’t give us a ton of strong options, but Canning has been much worse against lefties this season, with a .302 batting average allowed.
That led me to Nootbar. He hasn’t been great this season — to put it mildly — but his .221 BABIP suggests he’s due for some regression, and he’s cheap enough to justify taking a chance.
Corey Seager ($5,400) Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians (Carlos Carrasco)
Seager’s projections lead the shortstop position by a wide margin today. That makes him worth paying up for, as his Rangers have an implied total over five runs today.
Seager got off to a slow start this season, but he has hit three home runs recently and has a strong matchup with Carlos Carrasco ($6,200) and his 5.36 ERA.
