The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,400) Baltimore Orioles (-144) vs. New York Yankees
There’s a handful of pitchers in baseball for whom the matchup doesn’t matter. Their stuff is good enough that it doesn’t matter who’s across the diamond, they’re likely to get them out. Burnes is one of those elite few.
The 2021 NL Cy Young award winner has a shot at adding the AL edition to his trophy case this year, trailing only the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal as the favorite for the honor. He has a 2.55 ERA through six starts this season, and a solid 25.5% strikeout rate.
That low (by ace standards) strikeout rate is the only real knock on Burnes. The Yankees have a team rate below 20% this year, so there’s an argument that Burnes’ upside doesn’t live up to his salary, especially with some more exciting but arguably riskier options in his price range.
For that reason as well as his elevated ownership projection, I’m viewing Burnes more as a cash game play today. The upside isn’t worth playing into the most popular pitcher on the slate for GPPs, and odds are at least one of the alternative options will outperform him.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Andrew Heaney ($6,000) Texas Rangers (-185) vs. Washington Nationals
Of course, for the majority of pitchers, matchup is an important factor. There are plenty of big league arms that can look good against lower-tier offenses while struggling against the elite groups. Count Andrew Heaney among their ranks.
He has ugly numbers this year, with a 6.26 ERA through five starts. However, three of those five starts have came against top-five offenses in the MLB. In his other two starts, he has DraftKings scores of 16.5 and 19.5, both of which would be more than acceptable at his $6,000 salary.
He gets an above-average matchup with the Nationals today. Washington is a bottom-ten overall offense in baseball, and has performed even worse against lefties like Heaney. While they’re not a high-strikeout team, we don’t need that kind of upside out of a pitcher at this price point.
Heaney leads THE BAT projections for Pts/Sal, and is an excellent second option to pair with Burnes for cash games or another stud for GPPs.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shota Imanaga ($9,800) Chicago Cubs (-130) at New York Mets
Imanga — and fellow Japanese “rookie” Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,600) — are my preferred upside options on Wednesday’s slate. Both come in well ahead of Burnes in strikeout and swinging strike rate (albeit with smaller sample sizes) and provide way more upside at a similar price point.
They’re both a bit riskier of course, but that’s what we’re looking for in GPPs. Imanga is my preferred option of the pair, thanks to considerably better Vegas data and slightly lower projected ownership. He’s also been better overall this season, with an absurd 0.98 ERA through five starts.
His ERA won’t start with 0 all season, but his underlying metrics are also excellent. his expected ERA (xERA) is 3.00, witha FIP of 2.40. He also has the highest swinging strike rate on the main slate at 13.5% — which should translate to a better strikeout rate than the 25.9% he has at the moment.
Imanaga is my favorite GPP play on the slate, with Yamamoto a close second.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
There’s three offenses on tonight’s smaller slate implied for at least five runs, with the Rangers leading the pack with their total of 5.3. They’re also fairly reasonably priced as a group, at least compared to the star-studded Dodgers lineup.
I also like the correlation of pairing Texas with Heaney, as a good day from the Rangers bats makes Heaney more likely to pick up the four-point win bonus on DraftKings.
They have an excellent matchup with Trevor Williams ($6,300) of the Nats. Williams has a 2.70 ERA this season — but a .270 BABIP and obviously unsustainable 0% HR/FB ratio. He’s allowing a career-high hard hit rate, and a slightly-elevated flyball rate, so the homers will come.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Freddie Freeman 1B ($6,600) Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery)
The Dodgers draw a lefty in Jordan Montgomery ($8,700) tonight. That’s an obviously good thing for their right handed bats, many of whom have excellent platoon splits. However, Using PlateIQ I was surprised to see the numbers on Freeman:
While his numbers aren’t quite as strong as Mookie Betts ($6,500), he’s $1,000 cheaper and should be considerably less popular, making him a solid GPP play.
Jazz Chisholm OF ($5,300) Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies (Dakota Hudson)
After narrowly missing the 20/20 club last season in just 97 games, Chisholm is on track to top those numbers in 2024. He already has four home runs and five steals, despite hitting just .239.
His average should creep up throughout the season, and today is a great time to start. He has a juicy matchup against Dakota Hudson ($5,300), the Rockies righty who’s allowed a .370 wOBA against lefties in each of the past two seasons.
With Miami implied for five runs tonight, I want exposure to their team starting with their left handed hitters in general, and Jazz specifically.
Anthony Rizzo 1B ($4,000) New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (Corbin Burnes)
If you’re fading Burnes in GPPs, it’s probably solid strategy to roster an opposing hitter against him. I like looking for Yankees lefties specifically given the Park Factors at Camden Yards. The dimensions play much better for lefty bats.
