The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,100) Los Angeles Dodgers (-299) vs. Miami Marlins
“Rookie” phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto leads the slate in strikeout rate, has a sub-3.00 ERA, and gets a matchup against the dreadful Miami Marlins and their bottom-three wRC+ on the season. It’s hard to ask for much more than that out of your stud pitcher in DFS.
If that weren’t enough, he also has by far the best Vegas data on the slate, with the Marlins’ 2.8-implied runs a slate low and Los Angeles the heaviest moneyline favorites. Yamamoto also appears to have been given a longer leash, lasting six innings in each of his past three appearances. He even has the best Umpire for pitchers, with Roberto Ortiz behind the dish. Ortiz has produced an average Plus/Minus score of +5.8 points for pitchers in our dataset.
Yamamoto is a no-brainer top option today as long as you can stomach the price tag. That salary has the side benefit of keeping his ownership limited, which makes him a strong GPP play. He leads THE BAT projections for median and ceiling while coming in second in the FantasyLabs models.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bailey Ober ($7,600) Minnesota Twins (-146) vs. Seattle Mariners
Ober is the one man projecting better than Yamamoto in the FantasyLabs projections. It all comes down to the matchup. While the Mariners are a better overall offense than Miami, they also strike out at the highest rate in the league — 28.3%. With strikeouts making up such a large portion of DFS pitcher scoring, it’s an important data point to consider.
Ober’s strikeout rate is a respectable 22.8%, but it was over 25% in 2023. Given the uptick in his fastball velocity, it’s reasonable to think he’ll get back to that level — especially given tonight’s matchup.
Ober has also been solid in run prevention, with a 4.55 ERA but somewhat better underlying metrics. The Mariners are implied for just 3.8 runs, so oddsmakers are fairly comfortable with the idea he’s been better than his ERA.
Ober stands out as the top value on the board in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models while also leading the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling despite his moderate salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shota Imanaga ($10,300) Chicago Cubs (-160) vs. San Diego Padres
Imanaga — along with Yamamoto — is the other high-profile Japanese pitcher to come stateside with plenty of hype this season. Like Yamamoto, he’s lived up to it, with an absurd 0.75 ERA and excellent 26.5% strikeout rate.
While his ERA is unsustainable, his 2.75 xERA and 3.15 xFIP are still strong. Additionally, he’s due for some positive regression in the strikeout department. His swinging strike rate is two percent higher than Yamamoto’s, but Imanaga has fewer strikeouts. Combining those two factors, and he’s been about as good as his 24.2 DraftKings points per game average indicates.
The problem for Imanaga is the matchup. San Diego trails only the Dodgers and Orioles for the best offense (by wRC+) at the team level this year. They’re implied for a solid 4.1-run team total — though bettors may be expecting the bulk of those runs to come against the bullpen.
It’s also worth nothing that the Padres have been much worse against lefties. Their wRC+ ranks 20th against southpaws, making this matchup softer than it appears. With Imanaga projecting for single-digit ownership, he’s my favorite GPP play on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
I can’t believe the price tags on the Giants’ bats today. Sure, they’re not the most exciting offense, but their 97 wRC+ is roughly league average. They’re implied for a slate-best 5.7 run implied total today, though, thanks to their game being at Coors Field.
On top of the obvious benefit of the location, that also means an excellent matchup. The Rockies starter is Dakota Hudson ($5,000) with his 5.93 ERA. While that’s partially due to his home ballpark, his fielding-independent ERA indicators are still on the wrong side of five.
Once Hudson leaves, San Francisco gets to face the Rockies 28th-ranked bullpen. That ranking is based on ERA, but like Hudson, they aren’t much better (24th) in xFIP, which factors out ballpark.
They’ll be chalky, so I’ll avoid pairing the Giants with both Yamamoto and Ober (which will likely be the chalk pitching duo). Or you could roster Giants bats lower in their lineup as a way to get contrarian without sacrificing pitching projection.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ezequiel Tovar SS ($4,700) Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants (Kyle Harrison)
Given their solid implied total of 4.6 runs, it’s worth taking a look at the Rockies’ side of the Coors Field matchup as well. Of course, given that they’re one of the MLBs worst offenses, that’s easier said than done.
They’re taking on a lefty in Kyle Harrison ($6,400) of the Giants, so I turned to PlateIQ to hunt for a productive Colorado hitter
Ignoring the tiny sample sizes at the bottom of their lineup, that leaves us with Tovar, which is fortunate, as the Giants stack doesn’t occupy his shortstop position, making an “all Coors” roster construction a bit easier.
Cal Raleigh C ($3,900) Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober)
With the chalk forming around Ober, there’s an angle for fading him in large-field tournaments. When going that route, I like to roster some hitters against him — since a bad day for Ober clearly correlates with somebody on the opposing team being productive.
A cheap (both in terms of salary and opportunity cost) way to do so is with Raleigh. The top catchers today are overpriced for their likely outcomes, so we aren’t missing out on any “must play” hitters at the position.
Raleigh is hitting just .206 on the season, but he’s on a 40 home run pace. That makes him a boom-or-bust option well suited for GPPs.
Mike Tauchman OF ($3,900) Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
My biggest concern with rostering Imanaga today is the weather at Wrigley field. More specifically the wind, which is forecast at double-digit speeds straight out to center field. That’s obviously to the benefit of the hitters in this game, with a total Weather Factor of 64 (50 is average) for bats.
It’s also an encouraging sign for Tauchman. He has just three home runs on the season, but he is setting career highs in barrel rate and fly-ball rate. His HR/FB ratio is well below his career average, so he’s due for some positive regression.
There’s a better-than-average chance that hits tonight thanks to the weather and favorable matchup, making him (and the Cubs in general) a sneaky play for tournaments.
