The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an eleven-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($11,000) San Diego Padres (-290) vs. Colorado Rockies
Whether or not to roster Cease will be the decision that defines this slate. He has a huge lead in median and ceiling projections in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models. In THE BAT, he’s nearly six points clear of the second-best option in both metrics. He’s also the most expensive pitcher on a big slate, where there’s plenty of expensive hitters we’ll want to save salary for.
Given both of those points, the deciding factor for if — or when — to use Cease should probably be based on ownership projections. He’s projected at over 50% in THE BAT, which is a bit much for my tastes in large-field GPPs. However, for single-entry tournaments and cash games, it’s probably wise to eat the chalk.
His ownership projection is well deserved after all. He has a 2.19 ERA, a 32% strikeout rate — and a dream matchup. Colorado ranks 29th in both wRC+ and strikeout rate as a team this season. They have a 2.7 run total, and San Diego is the biggest favorite on the slate.
Cease is very likely to pay off his salary today, making him a solid option. However, I’ll be looking elsewhere in big GPPs, because with 24 pitchers on the board, it’s likely somebody else approaches his score as well.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Joe Ross ($5,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-165) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Joe Ross isn’t nearly the pitcher that Dylan Cease is, but the matchup is pretty close. He’s taking on a Pirates team that ranks bottom six in both wRC+ and strikeouts. They’re implied for a reasonably low 3.8 runs today against Ross and the Brewers.
Of course, at less than half the salary, Ross doesn’t need to be as good as Cease. The righty has a 4.75 ERA and 17.9% strikeout rate this season, but he’s a positive regression candidate. His 12% swinging strike rate should equate to about a 25% K Rate, and his xERA is a somewhat better 4.12.
We expect that positive regression to be likelier in winnable matchups, which is exactly what he has today. He’s an excellent partner for Cease lineups, as the total pitching expenditure works out to a reasonable $16,200. That’s my preferred way to build for smaller GPPs and cash games.
Ross leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal projection, with some reasonable upside thanks to the matchup.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Ronel Blanco ($9,500) Houston Astros (-175) vs. Oakland A’s
Blanco’s 22.6 DraftKings points-per-game average is a bit misleading. That’s because he started the season with a no-hitter against the Blue Jays, in which he topped 47 points. However, he’s still been solid outside of that performance, averaging just under 20 in his other outings.
His ERA and xERA are both well under three, and he’s due for a bit of positive strikeout regression thanks to his 12.2% swinging strike rate, which gives him tremendous upside against the A’s, who strike out at a top-five rate in the league.
Oakland has actually been an above-average overall offense this season, but their 3.8 implied total suggests Blanco has the edge in this matchup. We’re mostly hunting upside, and the A’s high strikeout rate helps provide some.
If Blanco can come within a few points of Cease today, the extra $1,500 in salary and much lower ownership will make him a great play. He has as good a shot as anyone on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros are one of a few teams implied for just under five runs today, and they are tied for the lead on the slate. They’re a top-five overall offense this season, with even better numbers against left-handed pitching.
This is important, as tonight they take on Oakland lefty JP Sears ($6,100). Sears has been fine this season, with his ERA and leading indicators all sitting in the low-to-mid fours. However, this is a tough matchup for him, and Houston’s lineup is stacked with lefty-mashers.
Of course, the Astros stack is expensive. It would make sense to play them in lineups with Ross and Blanco (instead of Cease.) Not only does that save $1,500 in salary, but it builds in some correlation between the Astros hitters and Blanco’s win bonus.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Christopher Morel 3B ($4,400) Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (Chris Sale)
Nobody is going to be on the Cubs today thanks to their 3.4-run implied total and difficult matchup with Chris Sale ($10,000).
However, they have some sneaky upside. As a team, they have a 133 wRC+ against lefties this year. I used PlateIQ to see which Cubs hitters are driving that number:
We’ve got a handful of options, but Morel has the best overall numbers. His OPS is more than 300 points higher against lefties than righties, making him an excellent one-off. Or you could roster Cubs mini stacks, with the middle of their lineup all standing out.
Corey Seager SS ($5,500) Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians (Ben Lively)
Guardians starter Ben Lively ($7,500) has been a revelation this year, with a 2.63 ERA through five starts. That comes after a 2023 campaign in which he finished with a 5.38 ERA. The only problem is his xERA has only dropped about half a run, meaning he’s been very lucky this year.
This piques my interest in the Rangers, particularly in a game with a solid combination of Park Factor and Weather Rating scores. Seager is probably their best hitter. He’s having a down year, but his xWOBA is about 60 points higher than his actual wOBA, so he’s due for a breakout soon.
Yandy Diaz 1B ($4,100) Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (Nick Pivetta)
The game between the Rays and Red Sox is tied with the Rangers game for the highest total on the slate at 9. Like that game, that’s partially due to solid Park Factors at Fenway Park, where righties tend to do very well.
Diaz is too cheap in the lead-off spot of the Rays’ lineup considering their 4.5-run implied total and solid situation overall.
