The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a twelve-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($10,000) Milwaukee Brewers (-175) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Peralta has so far improved on his excellent 2023 campaign, coming into Tuesday’s start with a 33% strikeout rate and 3.18 ERA. Both of those numbers are supported by underlying metrics, with an excellent swinging strike rate and an xFIP slightly lower than his ERA. That’s put him in the NL CY Young discussion, with his +700 odds currently third best.
Now he gets a solid matchup against the Rays, who are a slightly below-average overall offense with an above-average strikeout rate. Combined with Peralta’s numbers, that’s good for a slate-best 7.12 K prediction — a full strikeout ahead of the next-best pitcher.
He’s also well ahead of the field in median and ceiling projection in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT’s. With excellent Vegas data to boot, there’s not really any holes to poke in Peralta today. Finding the salary to fit him in will be a priority for me today in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Nick Martinez ($6,400) Cincinnati Reds (+134) at San Diego Padres
Martinez has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this season. To his credit, he lasted six full innings in his last start, though he allowed five runs in the process. That was against a tough Phillies lineup, but the Padres are an equally challenging matchup.
However, Martinez is due for some major regression. His ERA this season is an ugly 5.48, but all of his leading indicators are considerably better. Those are led by a FIP of 3.33 but range up into the low fours. He’s also due some strikeout luck, with a 16.8% rate that should be much higher based on his double-digit swinging strike rate.
Part of the issue for Martinez is four of his five appearances this season have been at home in the worst pitcher’s park outside of Colorado. This game being in San Diego with a Park Factor of 61 for pitchers is a big upgrade, and the weather slightly favors pitching as well. That could explain the discrepancy between his ERA and his ERA predictors, especially considering he pitched four innings of one-run ball in his only prior road appearance.
Playing Martinez today still requires a bit of a leap of faith, but our projections like him. He leads the FantasyLabs Pts/Sal projections. His low salary makes him an appealing option to pair with Peralta while still leaving salary for hitters.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Castillo ($8,600) Seattle Mariners (+104) vs. Atlanta Braves
We’re about to test the old adage that “good pitching beats good hitting” today in Seattle, as Castillo takes on a dangerous Braves lineup. This game has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate, with the Braves specifically implied for just 3.7 runs.
That says a lot about Castillo’s abilities given that Atlanta is averaging well over five runs per contest in 2024. Castillo’s ERA is an unremarkable 4.15, but his xFIP and SIERA are both under three. He also misses plenty of bats, with the highest swinging strike rate of the main slate since the start of 2023.
Of course, a matchup with Atlanta goes a long way to suppressing ownership, and Castillo is projecting for a reasonable number. Pairing him with another somewhat affordable option (i.e., not Peralta) will likely be even more unique and allow way more salary for hitters.
For large-field GPPs, that approach is worth a shot, as it will go a long way towards making lineups more unique.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
Minnesota has somewhat quietly been a top-ten lineup in baseball this season, with lesser-known names like Edouard Julien and Ryan Jeffers both inside the top 30 in wRC+ at the player level.
With DraftKings’ pricing algorithm partially dependent on ownership, that means we’re still getting excellent prices on the Twins despite their performance to date.
They’re in a good spot to continue that tonight, with a solid 4.9-run implied total on the road against the White Sox. That’s tied for the second-highest mark on the slate but with salaries far cheaper than an equivalent stack from the other top options.
Minnesota is an excellent stack to target if spending up on pitchers, as their average salary of under $4,300 leaves plenty of space for pay-up options. That will be my go-to construction today, especially in cash games.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Christopher Morel 3B ($4,200) Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
The Cubs are implied for just 3.4 runs today against Sean Manaea ($8,000) and the Mets. However, the middle of their order might offer some value against the lefty Manaea:
Morel is my favorite among those options. He has a very strong .818 OPS against lefties this season, compared to just .627 against righties.
Additionally, Manaea might be a bit overrated in this spot. His 5.06 xERA is well higher than his 3.33 ERA on the season.
Mookie Betts 2B/SS ($6,600) Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery)
Suggesting that you roster the best hitter in baseball is admittedly a bit of a cop out. You’ll never feel bad about a lineup with Betts in it, regardless of the matchup.
With that said, it’s an especially good day to roster the Dodgers’ lead-off man. Los Angeles has a slate-high 5.2-run implied total after hanging eight runs on the Diamondbacks yesterday.
As an added bonus, Betts’ already elite numbers are even better against lefties this year. He’s hitting them for a .383 batting average, ten points higher than against righties.
Jake McCarthy OF ($3,600) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Landon Knack)
I’m interested in both sides of the Dodgers/Diamondbacks showdown tonight, with Arizona also having a team total of around five runs. Much of that is due to the matchup with Landon Knack ($7,500), a 26 year old making just his third big league start.
Knack has solid numbers so far this season, with a 3.27 ERA. However, both of his first two outings came against the Nationals.
Arizona is a much stiffer test, hence the elevated total. This makes the price tag on their lead-off hitter McCarthy far too cheap today. The speedy McCarthy is hitting .300 this season and has plenty of upside thanks to his stolen base potential.
