The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a ten-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Pablo Lopez ($9,300) Minnesota Twins (-276) vs. Chicago White Sox
Lopes is an easy choice today. He’s the clear leader in median projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models while leading all main slate pitchers in most relevant stat categories. That includes xERA, SIERA, and swinging strike rate, while he’s just a percentage point off the lead in strikeout rate.
Equally important, he also has an ideal matchup. The White Sox offense is terrible, ranking dead last in wRC+ as a team this season. While they rank “only” ninth in strikeout rate, the combination of Lopez’s ability and the matchup has his K prediction over 6.00.
That strikeout-driven upside plus the floor of an opponent implied for just 2.7 runs makes Lopez impossible to ignore. While he’s not cheap exactly, his numbers typically come with a five-figure price tag. His ownership should easily be the highest on the slate, but we can afford to be unique elsewhere.
Lopez is a must play for all contest types.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tommy Henry ($6,200) Arizona Diamondbacks (+114) at St. Louis Cardinals
Our projection sets have a healthy disagreement about Henry today. The FantasyLabs projections have him as the top Pts/Sal option on the slate, whereas THE BAT is bearish, projecting him for under ten DraftKings points. Personally, I’m more in line with the FantasyLabs models — though there’s enough uncertainty that I’m keeping my Henry exposure to GPPs only.
Henry’s numbers on the season are rough to say the least. He’s coming into the contest with a 6.57 ERA through four starts and just over 18 innings in 2024. However, there’s reason to believe he’s been more unlucky than bad. His xFIP (my preferred ERA predictor) is a strong 3.98 with a 4.06 SIERA. He’s been incredibly unlucky in terms of BABIP, with a .373 mark — average is right around .300 — and his HR/FB ratio is elevated despite mostly keeping the ball on the ground.
Now he draws a Cardinals team that’s struggled massively against lefties this year, posting a 77 wRC+ as a team and hitting a league-worst one home run against southpaws. There’s clearly some sample size issues there, but it’s still a good sign. Henry has also made two of his four starts at home, plus one in Colorado — all tougher ballparks to pitch in than St. Louis.
With plenty of negative projections around the industry, he should come in with low ownership to match his cheap price. That seems like a winning combination for tournaments.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Michael King ($7,000) San Diego Padres (-152) at Colorado Rockies
Michael King is a tough player to break down today. He comes into the game with a 3.33 ERA and 25% strikeout rate, both solid numbers. That’s despite an elevated HR/FB rate of 19.4%, and three of his five appearances this year coming against top-five offenses (Dodgers twice and Brewers once.)
On the other hand, his .188 BABIP is laughably low, and his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all somewhere in the mid-fours. One could make a compelling case for King to regress significantly in either direction moving forward. Plus, he has the unenviable task of pitching at Coors Field today. That’s never ideal for a starter, even though Colorado’s 4.3-run implied total is on the low side.
The tiebreaker for me is the matchup, with Colorado ranking 28th in wRC+ and second in strikeout rate as a team. We have King’s K Prediction as best on the slate, and the thin Denver air doesn’t matter if you don’t hit the ball. Additionally, King is underpriced on DraftKings, with a slate-leading 99% Bargain Rating.
We saw a Padres pitcher pay off as the chalk last night, with Dylan Cease topping 30 DraftKings points against these Rockies. King is no Cease of course, but I expect him to find success as well — at considerably lower ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres didn’t really get there for us yesterday, scoring just three runs in Coors Field. However, that’s led to an even cheaper price tag on their top-five hitters despite their slate-leading 5.4-run implied total.
They’re going to project as the best stack on the board as long as both of those things remain true. They’ve been a top-ten offense this season by wRC+, and draw a matchup with Ryan Feltner ($6,400) and his 5.06 ERA on Tuesday.
While blindly stacking hitters at Coors Field isn’t typically the best tournament strategy, some recency bias could lead to it being a solid choice today. I like pairing the Padres with Michael King, which adds some correlation between their offensive success and King picking up the four-point win bonus.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
JP Crawford SS ($3,800) Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
For a handful of reasons, I’m interested in some Mariners stacks today. They’re in Texas, where both the ballpark and weather are favorable for hitters, with a team total of 4.7 runs. The biggest reason is the matchup with Dane Dunning ($6,600).
Dunning has strong numbers to start the season, with a 3.91 ERA. However, his xERA and FIP are both over six, so he’s due for some regression. He also doesn’t miss a ton of bats (22.9% strikeout rate), which is important for Seattle. They’re a strong offense, but with a high K rate of their own.
I turned to PlateIQ for some more information on Dunning:
All the red under his columns against lefties immediately jumped out. Crawford is one of just two true lefties in the Mariners lineup, so he’s a solid one-off play. Switch hitting catcher Cal Raleigh ($3,900) could also be added to make Seattle mini stacks.
Nicky Lopez 2B ($2,100) Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (Pablo Lopez)
Lopez is a pure game-theory play for me today, and even then only in large-field tournaments. With that said, given the massive chalk forming around Pablo Lopez, gaining some leverage by rostering White Sox hitters could pay off in a big way today.
Nothing about Nicky Lopez’s numbers inspire much — or any — confidence today. However, he’s a $2,100 lead-off hitter. In his defense, he also puts the ball in play at a high clip, but has an unsustainably low .234 BABIP. For a player with his speed, that number should finish closer to .300 — so there’s that, I guess.
Willson Contreras C ($4,500) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)
I won’t be playing much of Contreras myself, but that’s only because of my interest in Henry. If you were unconvinced by my paragraph on Henry, Contreras is an excellent choice.
One of the reasons I’m buying into Henry today is that the Cardinals by and large have struggled against lefties this season. Contreras is a notable exception. Since the start of last season, he has a .224 ISO and .392 wOBA against southpaws, both best in the Cardinals’ projected lineup.
I don’t expect Henry to garner enough ownership that building leverage against him makes sense, but Contreras is a solid play at a relatively thin position on his own merits.
