The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a ten-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Greene ($9,000) Cincinnati Reds (+110) at Seattle Mariners
Since bursting onto the scene in 2022 with an average fastball velocity of 99 mph, Hunter Greene has been one of the most tantalizing DFS pitchers whenever his turn in the rotation is up. His career strikeout rate is over 30%, and he regularly blows hitters away with his fastball.
However, Greene tends to fall apart later in his starts, leading to precious few slate-breaking DFS scores. He’s yet to top 20 DraftKings points in a start this season. There’s good news, though. Unlike past seasons, Greene might just be getting unlucky this year.
His underlying numbers paint the picture of a player who’s turned the corner, with a 2.53 xERA and all of his ERA-indicators under four to start the year. That’s considerably better than his 4.86 ERA, so maybe some positive regression is coming.
Beyond that, he also has a strong matchup with the Mariners. They have the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors this season at 28.2% and a Vegas total of just 3.8 runs. Greene has massive strikeout-driven upside here, and he just might limit scoring enough to break the slate.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling on Tuesday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Quintana ($7,200) New York Mets (-121) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thanks to Greene’s relatively affordable price point, he’s also the leader in Pts/Sal in the FantasyLabs models. That also means there’s less pressure to go dumpster diving for a second pitcher. This is where Qunitana comes in.
He’s a low-upside but fairly safe pick tonight against the Pirates, who have a 3.7-run implied total. Quintana hasn’t topped a 20% strikeout rate since 2022, but the 35 year old is cruising along with a 3.45 ERA after finishing last season at 3.57. Those are strong numbers that have translated to solid DFS scores in the low teens.
This is about what we should expect today, with a bit of upside if he can last deeper into the contest. It’s not the most exciting selection, but his Vegas numbers are excellent for a player at his price point. He’s an excellent cash game play and/or pairing option with a more expensive pitcher.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($6,500) Houston Astros (-105) vs. Atlanta Braves
Look, I get it. Nobody is going to want to click Hunter Brown today against the Braves, especially not after turning in an all-time bad start in his last outing, where he allowed nine runs without even completing the first inning. The bright side, though, is that nobody is going to want to roster him.
To be clear, Brown is in consideration for massive GPPs only. The biggest selling point is his minuscule ownership projection, which is always worth noting in a sport with as much variance at baseball. At the same time, we’ve also seen flashes of brilliance from Brown, who has a career strikeout rate in the high 20% range.
Last season, he was also extremely unlucky, finishing the year with an ERA over 5.00 but SIERA and xFIP numbers in the mid threes. This year’s numbers don’t tell us much given his outlier game last time out, but I wouldn’t be shocked if his ERA stabilized around 4.00 or so by the end of this season.
While it’s a terrible matchup against the Braves, far stranger things have happened in baseball.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs/Diamondbacks game promises fireworks today, with a 10.5 implied total fairly evenly split between the two teams. However, the top five hitters in Arizona’s lineup cost roughly $3,000 more on DraftKings than their Chicago equivalents.
Add in the fact that the visiting Cubs get a guaranteed ninth inning at the plate, and they’re clearly the better option for DFS on Tuesday. They’re taking on Arizona lefty Tommy Henry ($6,700), who has an ERA of 4.37 dating back through 2023 but considerably worse ERA predictors.
Henry was also worse from a wOBA and ISO standpoint against fellow lefties last season (and in a limited sample this season), so no need to pass on Cody Bellinger in this stack. Besides, if it all goes well, the Cubs will chase Henry away early anyway, so don’t sweat the platoon splits too much.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willson Contreras C ($4,400) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Oakland A’s (JP Sears)
Any time we get a Contreras brother against a lefty, it’s worth paying attention to. Willson’s splits aren’t nearly as extreme as his brother William Contreras ($4,800), who is unfortunately facing a righty today. However, he still saw his OPS jump more than 100 points against southpaws last season, with similar career numbers.
Since players tend to be priced for their typical production, that makes Contreras a solid value on Tuesday’s slate. That production is somewhat skewed towards matchups with southpaw pitchers, so he should be more expensive in said matchups most of the time.
Contreras trails only Will Smith ($4,600) in median and ceiling at catcher today, but Smith is on the wrong side of his platoon splits and more expensive, so Contreras is the better option.
Mookie Betts 2B/SS ($6,500) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Speaking of the Dodgers, they have a slate-high 6.1-run implied total today in a dream matchup against Patrick Corbin ($5,500). The Southpaw Corbin is working on a fourth straight season with an ERA over 5.00, and he comes into the contest with an 8.23 mark.
Since Corbin is a lefty, it only felt right to head to PlateIQ to find the Dodgers hitters with the best platoon splits:
There’s a lot of green on that screenshot, but check out those numbers from Betts. Those are absurd and don’t even take into account his stolen base threat. He’s worth the price tonight.
Joey Gallo 1B ($3,000) Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (Kyle Hurt)
Gallo is weirdly cheap on DraftKings today, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating compared to his FanDuel price. We know what the deal is with Gallo at this point — a lot of strikeouts, not a lot of hits, but a ton of power.
He’s hitting just .151 with a ridiculous 40% strikeout rate so far this season, but seven of his eight hits have gone for extra bases, and three of those have been home runs. With Dodgers rookie Kyle Hurt ($6,500) and his 15.8% strikeout rate (albeit in a tiny sample) on the mound, it could be a good day for Gallo to put some balls in play.
He’s a solid high-upside, zero-floor play for tournament lineups today at his price.
