The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Castillo ($9,600) Seattle Mariners (-125) at Minnesota Twins
The top pitching option on Monday’s abbreviated slate is fairly obvious, as Castillo takes the top spot in median projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models by a solid margin. While it’s not an ideal matchup against the Twins’ top-ten offense, Castillo should be more than up to the challenge.
He comes into Monday with a 3.46 ERA but has underlying metrics that are all varying degrees stronger than that. Similarly, he leads the slate in swinging strike rate and is due for some positive regression on his 28.7% strikeout rate, which means he’s actually been somewhat better than his 20.3 DraftKings points-per-game average this year.
Both projection sets have Castillo leading the field in ownership as well, so there’s a slight case for a fade in large-field GPPs. However, he’s pretty much a lock in smaller tournaments and cash games, with the best mix of safety and upside on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Andrew Heaney ($6,600) Texas Rangers (-141) at Oakland A’s
It’s a close call between Heaney and his opponent Alex Wood ($5,500) for the best value play on the slate tonight. Wood leads the FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal projection, while Henaey takes the top spot in THE BAT.
The choice between the two comes down to ability against their respective matchups. While neither pitcher has been impressive this year, Heaney’s 5.10 ERA is much higher than his ERA predictors, which range from the low to the mid fours. On the other hand, Wood has an ERA over six, with an xERA just slightly lower.
The trade off is with the matchup. While the Rangers are the better overall offense, they’ve been dreadful against lefties this year. Their wRC+ against southpaws ranks 24th in the majors, ten spots below Oakland. The case for Wood is that even he can get through this Rangers lineup.
However, I prefer to bet on the positive regression of Heaney. All of his underlying metrics are much better than Wood’s, and his overall numbers have been solid if you discount games against the tough lineups of Houston and Atlanta.
Still, if the extra $1,100 in salary meaningfully improves your lineup elsewhere, there’s a case for taking a shot on Wood. He’ll be considerably less popular, and you don’t need much out of him at that price tag. Heaney is the safer cash game punt, but he should draw fairly heavy ownership, which limits his GPP appeal.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Walker Buehler ($9,300) Los Angeles Dodgers (-282) vs. Miami Marlins
It’s been nearly two years since we saw Buehler in action. He had his second Tommy John surgery in August of 2022, and hasn’t made a big league appearance since. Prior to that, he looked like a future ace, with a 2.47 ERA and 26% strikeout rate in 2021, his last full season.
Were it not for that factor, Buehler would be the clear top option today. He’s taking on the 28th-ranked offense of the Marlins, with easily the best Vegas data on the slate. Miami has the lowest implied team total on the board at 3.3, and the Dodgers are nearly three-to-one favorites in this matchup.
The big question is whether Buehler will have a long enough leash to justify his high salary. Miami, despite their offensive futility, is a low strikeout team, so Buehler probably needs six innings to put up a “have to have it” score.
That’s a big ask considering his 22-month layoff, but it is within the realm of possibility against a bottom-tier offense. It’s probably not likely enough to consider Buehler for cash games or tighter builds, but he’s a strong pivot from Castillo in large-field GPPs. With just six teams to choose from, building unique lineups will be at a premium today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The aforementioned three-to-one moneyline odds for the Dodgers aren’t strictly because the market views Buehler so optimistically. It’s mostly because of the Dodgers’ elite offense, which features the two best hitters in baseball at the top and by far the best team numbers in the game.
Their 5.5 implied total is nearly a full run better than anyone else on the slate, justifying the expensive cost of stacking them. They can score on anyone — scoring 20 total runs in a three-game sweep of the Braves this weekend — but they enjoy an excellent matchup today against Roddery Munoz ($7,200). Munoz has great numbers so far, but he is making just his third big-league start tonight.
Rostering a full Los Angeles stack obviously forces a cheaper pitching option (or two) into your lineup, but we have a couple of viable choices there. Plus, you can get unique — and save some salary — by pairing them with Buehler instead of Castillo. That has the added benefit of some correlation between offensive success and Buehler’s win bonus.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willson Contreras C ($5,600) St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
The Cardinals have been horrible against lefties as a team this season — with one notable exception. That would be Contreras, who has an absurd 1.116 OPS against southpaws on the year.
Don’t believe me? Check out PlateIQ to see how much he stands out:
Given the Cardinals’ team struggles and Contreras’ salary — higher than the Dodgers’ Smith — he won’t find his way into many lineups today. That makes him a perfect one-off for GPPs.
Bobby Witt SS ($6,200) Kansas City Royals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson)
The Royals are an interesting alternative to the Dodgers today. Their 4.9 implied total is second best on the slate, and their game against the Brewers leads the slate in both Park Factor and Weather Rating. That’s a good sign for offenses overall, but especially the favored Royals.
Witt is just slightly cheaper than Mookie Betts of the Dodgers, making him an interesting pivot. While he’s no Betts, the budding superstar is close, averaging just one fewer DraftKings point per game on the year.
Betts multi-position eligibility also means the two could be played together (though salaries make it extremely difficult) which is an interesting contrarian option today in lineups built around two cheaper pitchers.
