The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($8,700) San Diego Padres (-191) at Colorado Rockies
We don’t often see pitchers at Coors Field appear as the highest-projected starter, but that’s the situation on Monday. One reason behind that is due to DraftKings scheduling. They separated the three games starting at 6:40 p.m. Eastern into their own slate, taking most of the day’s top pitchers off the main slate.
Another reason is Cease’s excellent numbers this season. He’d been an excellent strikeout pitcher over the last few seasons with the White Sox, topping a 30% strikeout rate in two of the three (and 27.3% in the other). However, he struggled at times in preventing runs, carrying a 4.58 ERA last year.
At least early on in 2024, he’s sorted that out. He comes into the game with a 1.99 ERA and 30% strikeout rate. While he’s due for a bit of regression, his ERA indicators are all in the threes, so still solid, especially against a bad offense like the Rockies, who rank 28th in wRC+ on the season.
While Vegas has Colorado projected for 4.5 runs, that’s a bit misleading. Their first five innings team total is set at just 1.5 runs (though it’s moderately juiced to the over), suggesting the bulk of their scoring comes off the Padres’ bullpen and not Cease.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Albert Suarez ($4,000) Baltimore Orioles (-105) at Los Angeles Angels
I’ve double checked a few times this morning to make sure Suarez is expected to be an actual starter and not an opener today, but that appears to be the case. Suarez made his first MLB appearance since 2017 last week, throwing 5.2 scoreless innings against the Twins.
He gets a similarly favorable matchup in start number two, yet is inexplicably still priced at the minimum for a pitcher on DraftKings. Obviously he won’t sustain an ERA of 0.00 for much longer, but he doesn’t need to given the favorable pricing. His underlying metrics were solid as well, with a 2.08 xFIP and a 17.3% swinging strike rate.
None of that really matters here though, as he could easily pay off his bare-bones salary with three or four solid innings. I’d be shocked if his ownership remained as low as he’s currently projecting for, but there’s still a solid chance much of the field misses the obvious value here.
Suarez leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection systems in Pts/Sal by a wide margin.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Yuseki Kikuchi ($8,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-115) at Kansas City Royals
Through four starts in 2024 Kikuchi has taken a big step forward. He has an ERA of just 2.08, with all of his ERA predictors also on the right side of 3.00. His strikeout rate is an elite 33%, though his 11.7% swinging strike rate doesn’t support that level of production.
However, the matchup with the 13-9 Royals seems to have much of the field wary of Kikuchi. Kansas City is averaging just under five runs per game, with a solid 4.6-run implied total today.
Upon further investigation, though, this matchup might not actually be so bad. The Royals rank 21st in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, and they are one of the few teams with a worse number against southpaws than overall. That’s good news for the lefty Kikuchi — though the bad news is Kansas City doesn’t strike out much.
That limits Kikuchi’s upside a bit but not to an unplayable level, especially considering his price tag and relatively low ownership projection. He’s a strong pivot from Cease in large-field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The good news about all the pitching value on today’s slate is that it makes getting to the top stack of the day fairly easy. That top stack, of course, would be the Padres. They have an excellent 6.2-run implied total as they travel to Coors Field to take on the Rockies.
Not that the Padres are even all that expensive, at least relative to their likeliest outcome. The average player in this stack checks in at just under $5,000 in salary, a fairly reasonable price considering their team total.
Of course, they’re also going to be massively popular given how obvious the value is. That makes it important to pair them with less popular hitters, or consider pivoting from the Cease/Suarez pitching combination that’s likely to be chalky today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Orlando Arcia SS ($4,000) Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins (Ryan Weathers)
One way to get some leverage off of the Padres is by building around the Braves. Atlanta has a very strong 5.7-run implied total, but their collective price tags should limit ownership relative to San Diego, especially at positions that overlap with the Padres’ top hitters.
Since Ryan Weathers ($6,300) is a lefty, I turned to PlateIQ, to find the best splits among the Braves hitters:
Arcia and Marcell Ozuna ($5,400) somewhat surprisingly stand out, and Arcia’s cheap price is another bonus.
Edouard Julien 2B ($3,700) Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon)
Julien remains underpriced considering his lead-off spot in the Twins lineup — and the fact that Minnesota is the third team implied for at least five runs on the slate. His numbers are horrible to start the year thanks to a .179 batting average and 34% strikeout rate. However, he’s due for some major regression. His BABIP is just .216, after finishing last year at .371.
The “right” number is probably somewhere between those marks, but he’s still due for some positive regression. Part of the drop in batting average this season is due to Julien hitting more fly balls, but it’s hard to complain about his 30 home run pace.
He’s a fairly risky option given his reliance on power and his strikeout rate, but he’s a solid tournament play at a cheap price on Monday.
