The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($11,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-360) vs. Washington Nationals
I can’t remember another time this season that a team came into a game with a Vegas total of 3.0, but that’s the current line for the Nationals. That instantly makes Glasnow an elite play on Monday even before digging deeper into his own numbers.
Not coincidentally, they are also excellent. Since the start of 2023, he has a 33% strikeout rate and a 16% swinging strike rate, with an ERA of 3.31. So far this season, he’s been even better, with an xERA below 2.00 while averaging six innings per appearance.
It’s hard to argue with any part of that, especially given the matchup against a bottom-ten offense like the Nationals. If I wanted to poke holes in Glasnow today, I’d mention that the Nats have a below-average strikeout rate, which perhaps limits his ceiling, but given everything else, I think he’ll be able to overcome that minor annoyance.
He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems by a fairly clear margin in median and ceiling, and he is the obvious top play on the board Monday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
George Kirby ($8,900) Seattle Mariners (-152) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Now is a good time for the semi-regular reminder that “value” and “cheap” are not synonymous, given that George Kirby is a great example of the former term while falling a bit short on the latter. At $8,900, he’s the fourth-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but he’s still priced below his likeliest outcomes.
That’s because the Reds are implied for just 3.3 runs against Kirby and the Mariners, while Kirby’s K Prediction trails only Glasnow on the slate. All of his numbers compare reasonably closely to Glasnow, while saving a bit more than $2,000 in DraftKings salary.
That naturally slots him in as the best Pts/Sal pitcher on the slate in both projection sets. I’m viewing him more as a salary-and-ownership discount alternative to Glasnow than as a pairing option with him, however. Spending just under $20,000 in salary (or 40% of your cap) on the two pitcher slots makes for some tough builds, though of course it is possible.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Gil ($7,400) New York Yankees (-105) at Toronto Blue Jays
As opposed to Kirby, Gil is fairly cheap — but probably a bit too expensive for his likeliest outcome. However, in GPPs, we aren’t worried about likeliest outcomes. We’re chasing ceiling (while trying to dodge ownership as best as possible).
This is where Gil comes in. He has an absurd 36.8% strikeout rate in 2024, to go with a 3.00 ERA through two starts. Is that sustainable? Almost certainly not, but it’s still a good sign. His 97+ mph average fastball velocity certainly profiles as that of a strikeout pitcher even if his 13% career swinging strike rate points to some significant strikeout regression.
Still, he’s just 25 years old with 42 career major league innings pitched. Some of the statistical regression he’s due for will be balanced out by some skill progression, making him an interesting DFS option as long as he’s still cheap. Cheap and unpopular, specifically. Both projection sets have him at very reasonable ownership today.
The matchup isn’t ideal against a Toronto lineup that doesn’t strike out much and hits slightly above average, but sometimes that’s a risk we need to take in tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
One of the reasons that playing both Glasnow and Kirby is hard today is due to the strength of the Dodgers hitters. In fact, playing Glasnow at all with a full Dodgers stack isn’t really an option, as the only pitcher cheap enough to make it theoretically possible is Washington starter Mitchell Parker ($4,000) — who is pitching against the Dodgers.
That matchup is part of the reason Los Angeles is projecting so well. Parker is making his big league debut tonight after spending the bulk of last season in AA where he had an ERA over four. That’s probably not going to improve in the majors, especially given his first matchup.
Parker is also a lefty, and the Dodgers’ top five all have a wOBA (since the start of 2023) of at least .350 against southpaws. It’s a smash spot for the team with the slate’s highest implied total — if you can afford them. Unfortunately, the bottom half of their lineup has much less impressive numbers against lefties (and overall), so there isn’t really a great way to get exposure without spending up.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Dominic Fletcher OF ($2,000) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
We need to find value wherever we can get it on Monday’s slate, and Fletcher presents a nice opportunity. He’s set to hit fifth for the White Sox but is inexplicably minimum priced on DraftKings despite his slightly above-average hitting to start the season.
This isn’t to say he’s a world beater. He’s hitting .250 on the season with a .375 BABIP, so his numbers are likely to come down a bit. Still, he has a reasonably winnable matchup against Lugo — who’s excellent early season numbers are also due for some big regression — and a minimum price. That’s all we can ask for.
Joc Pederson OF ($3,900) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs (Ben Brown)
That Joc Pederson has an .894 OPS to start 2024 is impressive. That the multiple-time home-run derby participant has put up those numbers without any long balls is extra impressive.
That’s obviously going to change at some point, because Pederson is hitting the ball well. His fly ball rate is a bit over his career average, as is his hard hit rate. Tonight is as good of a time as any, playing at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field against a rookie pitcher with an ERA over six.
I want plenty of Diamondbacks exposure today, but given his price point and home run regression, Pederson is my favorite starting point.
Bobby Witt SS ($6,300) Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (Nick Nastrini)
Given how popular the Dodgers are likely to be today, we should see a bit of an ownership discount on other high-priced hitters. Especially Witt, who shares a position with Dodgers lead-off man Mookie Betts at a similar price point, with Betts likely to attract most of the ownership.
Witt’s been nearly as productive this season, though. He averages a bit better than 12 DraftKings points per game and is hitting .333 with four home runs and three steals. Those are elite numbers through 16 games played. Now he faces a pitcher making his MLB debut who had a 7.71 ERA in AAA this year. I definitely want exposure to that.
