The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate. There’s a three-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a 12-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate are priced at $10,000 or higher on FanDuel:
- Chris Sale (L) $11,500, BOS @ KC
- Charlie Morton (R) $10,400, TB @ DET
- James Paxton (L) $10,000, NYY @ TOR
Sale had a rough start to the season but has turned things around recently. He’s been particularly effective from a strikeout perspective, recording at least 10 Ks in six of his past eight starts. His ERA has also dropped to just 2.86 over that time frame.
He has a strong case to be the top pitching option on today’s slate. He’s taking on the Kansas City Royals, who are implied for a slate low 3.2 runs. Sale is also a -222 favorite and owns a massive K Prediction of 10.2. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.94 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He’s particularly tough to avoid today on DraftKings, where his $10,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Not a lot of pitchers put together the best season of their careers at 35.5 years old, but that’s exactly what Charlie Morton is doing with the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s pitched to a 2.54 ERA and 11.09 K/9 this season, both of which represent new career highs. He’s been even better over his past two starts, allowing just three runs and recording 16 strikeouts over 13 innings pitched.
He has a phenomenal matchup today vs. the Detroit Tigers. Their projected lineup has struggled vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .297 wOBA and 27.2% strikeout rate. They’ve been even worse this season, ranking dead last in wRC+. Morton’s resulting Vegas data is not as strong as Sale’s, but it’s still solid: 3.8 opponent implied team total, -186 moneyline odds. He should have modest ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but he has huge upside.
Last but not least is Paxton, who has impressed in his debut season with the Yankees. He’s pitched to a 2.81 ERA, 2.41 FIP, and 12.74 K/9, all of which are the best marks of his career. That said, injuries have always been a factor with Paxton, and this year has been no exception. He’s made just eight starts and is coming off just 66 pitches in his last outing.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. It’s a strong matchup — Paxton owns a K Prediction of 8.6 and an opponent implied team total of 3.5 — but it’s unclear just how long he’ll be able to pitch. He should see more than 66 pitches, but it’s possible that he will still be limited in some capacity. That uncertainty makes him tough to trust for cash games, but it could result in lower ownership for GPPs.
Values
German Marquez gets to take the rubber today in Chicago, which should make him an extremely happy man. The Cubs are a tough matchup — they rank seventh in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season — but anything is better than pitching at Coors Field. Marquez has absolutely dominated when on the road this season, posting an elite 2.08 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .206 wOBA.
He also enters this contest in elite recent form. He’s limited his past three opponents to an average distance of 189 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 32%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Two of his past three starts have also come at Coors, which makes his recent batted-ball data even more impressive.
He’s not exactly a value on DraftKings at $10,300, but his $9,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Kenta Maeda stands out on the early slate. He’s taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks, and their projected lineup has struck out in a whopping 28.2% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Maeda is a sneaky-good strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of 9.96 over the same time.
He combines his strikeout upside with a strong batted-ball profile from his past two starts, outperforming his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity and hard hit rate.
The only real concern with Maeda is his low average pitch count. He’s thrown more than 86 pitches in just two of nine starts this season, which makes it tough for him to hit his ceiling. That said, he did record 12 strikeouts in 6.2 innings two starts ago, so he does possess some upside.
Fastballs
Anibal Sanchez: He has arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a .264 wOBA and 34.3% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s also very cheap across the industry.
Yu Darvish: He has a tough pitching matchup vs. Marquez, but the Rockies offense isn’t nearly as intimidating when playing away from Coors. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 ranks fourth on the slate, and he’s posted a 10.77 K/9 through his first 12 starts this season.
Jimmy Nelson: He’ll be making his first start at the major league level since 2017, when he posted a 3.05 FIP and 10.21 K/9 over 175.1 innings. He hasn’t been very impressive in AAA this season after missing 2018 with an injury, but he does benefit from a juicy matchup vs. the Marlins.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Max Muncy (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $16,100
The Dodgers scored nine runs yesterday at Chase Field, and they’re in another great spot today. They’re currently implied for 5.4 runs and have a strong matchup vs. Diamondbacks right-hander Jon Duplantier. He’s made just one start at the major league level and was hit hard in that outing, allowing batters to post an average exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 40%.
The Dodgers have absolutely destroyed right-handed pitching this season, ranking first in wRC+ and second in wOBA, so this is a huge test for Duplantier. He owned just a 4.76 ERA in six starts at AAA this season, so I’m skeptical that he’ll be up for the task.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Luke Voit (R)
- 3. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 4. Gary Sanchez (R)
- 5. Gleyber Torres (R)
Total Salary: $24,100
The Yankees could be a bit overlooked today. They’re currently implied for 5.0 runs, which is tied for just the seventh-highest mark on the slate. They’re also expensive, which is a big reason why none of the stacked batters is projected for more than 10% ownership.
That said, they collectively enter today’s contest in strong recent form. Only Voit has failed to outperform his 12-month marks in average distance and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
LeMahieu in particular stands out from a Statcast perspective. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +19 feet and hard-hit differential of +10 percentage points. Leadoff hitters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.16 on DraftKings.
Other Batters
Matt Carpenter got off to a slow start this season, but he’s starting to get his groove back. He homered in yesterday’s contest, and his Statcast data from the past 15 days is outstanding: 253-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity, 50% hard-hit rate. He clubbed 29 HRs after June 1st last season, so it’s possible this is the start of another extended hot streak. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits today vs. Anthony DeSclafani, and he’s very reasonably priced at $4,300 on DraftKings.
Derek Fisher occupied the leadoff spot in the lineup for the Astros yesterday and responded with 21 DraftKings points. He has another strong matchup today vs. Mariners right-hander Mike Leake, who has pitched to a 5.63 FIP this season. The Astros are implied for a strong 5.1 runs, making Fisher an appealing value play across the industry.
Khris Davis is one of the best pure values today on DraftKings, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s played just three games since returning from injury, but he’s posted an average distance of 268 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 66% over that time. He smoked an RBI double in yesterday’s contest, and it’s only a matter of time before he sends one over the wall.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: A’s OF Khris Davis (2)
Photo credit: Kiel Maddox-USA TODAY Sports
