The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Today’s slate differs by site. There’s a 15-game FanDuel slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET and a 13-game DraftKings slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $9,600 on FanDuel:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $10,600, WSH @ ATL
- Matt Boyd (L) $10,200, DET @ BAL
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $9,600, NYY vs. SD
Strasburg has been nothing short of one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He’s posted a 2.80 FIP and 10.88 K/9, while his 2.2 Wins Above Replacement trails only Max Scherzer. Strasburg has unsurprisingly posted strong fantasy results as well, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.04 on FanDuel through his first 11 starts.
Strasburg is in an interesting spot against the Braves, whose projected lineup has struggled vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .284 wOBA. With that in mind, their implied team total of 4.4 runs is surprisingly high.
The Braves have also been stingy in terms of strikeouts vs. right-handers this season. They rank merely 11th in strikeout rate, and Strasburg’s resulting K Prediction of 7.1 is pretty mediocre. That makes it tough to trust Strasburg — particularly in cash games — but he still deserves some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Boyd has also gotten off to an excellent start this season. He’s pitched to a 2.94 FIP and 10.80 K/9, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.12 on FanDuel. He’s coming off a strong start in his last outing, shutting out the Marlins over six innings while racking up seven strikeouts.
He has another excellent matchup against the Orioles. Their projected lineup has posted a .299 wOBA and 24.6% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and they rank just 23rd in runs per game this season. Boyd’s opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs is still on the high side for a stud pitcher, but it’s slightly more appealing that Strasburg’s. His K Prediction of 7.3 is also the third-highest mark on the slate.
Tanaka is undoubtedly the most appealing stud pitcher on this slate. Unfortunately, he’s only available on the FanDuel main slate because of his 6:35 p.m. ET start time.
He has strong marks in all of the traditional pitching metrics against the Padres: 3.9 opponent implied team total, -178 moneyline odds, 6.8 K Prediction. That said, his recent Statcast data is what really stands out. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 160 feet, which represents a decrease of -42 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and distance differentials have posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.17 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Tanaka has also historically been much better when pitching at home, averaging roughly 4.5 additional fantasy points when playing at Yankee Stadium.
Value
The stud options on today’s slate are pretty unappealing, so it seems like a good day to pay down at pitcher. Luckily, there are some strong value options to choose from.
Rich Hill isn’t exactly a value at $10,800 on DraftKings — he’s the third-most expensive pitcher on the slate — but his $8,800 salary on FanDuel is extremely appealing. He’s just the eighth-most expensive pitcher, and his price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
He has a lot going for him on this slate. He has a strong matchup against the Mets and leads all pitchers in both opponent implied team total (3.3 runs) and moneyline odds (-196). Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and salaries have historically been strong investments on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.01.
The Mets have also struck out in 26.8% of at bats vs. left-handers this season, which is the fifth-highest mark in baseball. Hill’s resulting K Prediction of 8.0 is the top mark on the slate.
Finally, his recent Statcast data is absolutely elite. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 168 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 24%, all three of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Add it all up, and Hill looks like the top pitching option on the slate.
David Price is another pitcher with elite recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average distance of 186 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 17% over his past two starts, all of which are among the best marks on the slate.
Price has also seen a nice bump in strikeouts this season. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 10.15 through his first eight starts, which represents a nice increase from his mark of 9.05 last season. With that in mind, his K Prediction of 6.3 vs. the Cleveland Indians is conservative.
Unfortunately, the weather in Cleveland looks like it’s going to be a major issue. The current forecast calls for a 81% chance of precipitation at game time, which makes Price a risky option in all formats.
Fastballs
Dylan Bundy: He’s an underdog against Boyd, but the Tigers are still an elite matchup. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .296 wOBA and 27.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Bundy’s K Prediction of 7.6 ranks second on the slate.
Max Fried: He’s one of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s a slight favorite vs. Strasburg and the Nationals, and he’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of just 168 feet over his past two starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineup. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Ramiel Tapia (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 5. Daniel Murphy (L)
- 8. Chris Iannetta (R)
Total salary: $22,500
The Rockies are playing in Coors, so their implied team total of 6.4 runs is unsurprisingly the top mark on the slate. That said, their top DraftKings stack is actually pretty affordable. Only Story costs more than $4,500, and their Team Value Rating of 86 is tied for the second best mark on DraftKings.
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Trevor Story
Tapia is particularly appealing. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot at just $4,300, and comparably priced leadoff hitters have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.64 at Coors Field.
They have an appealing matchup against Diamondbacks’ right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has pitched to a 4.87 FIP this season while managing a K/9 of just 6.79. He’s also been rocked over his past two starts, allowing batters to post an average distance of 277 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 71%. That could spell disaster at Coors.
The Rockies also have the top rated stack on FanDuel, but the Philadelphia Phillies are an interesting pivot:
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins (R)
- 5. J.T. Realmuto (R)
Total salary: $15,500
The Phillies implied team total of 5.3 runs is tied for fifth on the slate, but it’s moving in the right direction. The total on this game has moved from 9.5 to 10.0, while the Phillies’ moneyline odds have increased from -110 to -127.
They’re taking on Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright, who is well past his prime at this point. He’s pitched to a 5.08 FIP this season while managing a K/9 of just 7.05.
The Phillies also enter this contest in excellent recent Statcast form. All four of the stacked batters have posted a positive 15-day/12-month distance differential, headlined by McCutchen’s mark of +28 feet. Harper, Hoskins and Realmuto also combine their strong recent distances with a hard hit rate of at least 51%.
Other Batters
Josh Reddick continues to look like an excellent value on DraftKings. He’s priced at $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%, and is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the shorthanded Astros. He’s on the wrong side of his batting splits vs. Jon Lester, but Reddick has actually posted a .377 wOBA and .235 ISO against southpaws over his past 12 months. Reddick has also exceeded his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
Enrique Hernandez looks like another strong value options. He’s priced at just $3,400 and is currently projected to bat first for the Dodgers. He’s taking on Mets left-handers Steven Matz, and Hernandez has posted a .369 wOBA and .202 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. The Dodgers are implied for a solid 4.8 runs.
Jarrod Dyson can do a lot of damage with his legs — he’s averaged .159 steals per game over the past 12 months — and playing in Coors should increase what he’s capable of doing with his bat. He’s expected to bat leadoff for the Diamondbacks and is priced at just $3,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Dodgers SP Rich Hill (44)
Photo credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
